$1.20 NLHE STT: AK on BB vs fish on bubble

[imwatcher]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 78/9/60

Hey imo this is a insta shove but maybe i am wrong, i think his calling range would be 7s+ A10+ maybe KQ obviously any call is bad for me, so are the extra chips here worth a shove? the pfr looks like he is always raising with his strong hands but earlier in the stt i restole from him when his stats werent so prominant.. so i am basically confused by him, just checking whether this IS a shove or a raise or a check lol... This is probably pretty results orientated but it is interesting because of the stack sizes.. If this is a shove, what point would it not be (if ever)?


Full Tilt - $1 + $0.20|200/400 NL - Holdem - 4 players
http://www.pokertracker.com Hand converted by PokerTracker 3[/url

SB: 1,880.00
Hero (BB): 4,280.00
UTG: 2,130.00
BTN: 5,210.00

SB posts SB 200.00, Hero posts BB 400.00

Pre Flop: (600.00) Hero has A:spade: K:heart:

fold, BTN calls 400.00, fold, Hero???

 

[WiZZiM]

Jam looks good to me.

The stack sizes arn't great, and we have to be a little cautious as the fish has us covered, but the guy's limping range is probably far wider than that. He folds here a TON, and even when he does make his spazzy call, we're crushing his range.

 

[Slow Roll Poker]

The push looks like a decent move to me.

That's what I would of done too. Not really much you can do with the blinds that high.

 

[cjatud2012]

Interesting, sorta similar to this spot over here... https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/6-50-nlhe-stt-bubble-ak-185791/

so what would make this a shove that's different from the other spot where we should check?

 

[cardplayer52]

No way would I shove this hand. You have a ton of equity to lose here. You could make it 1600 here and hope the villian fold preflop. If called you can play fit or fold if you get shoved on then I'd struggle but hope I'd be able to fold. These 78/9 type guys usually like to see a cheap flop and don't call too many raises(check there call open% as some just love seeing flops no matter what) so I pfr might take it right there. You could also take a cheap flop and try to keep the pot real small. Your pretty much tied for 1st place equity right now and shouldn't be willing to risk that.

 

[cjatud2012]

No way would I shove this hand. You have a ton of equity to lose here. You could make it 1600 here and hope the villian fold preflop. If called you can play fit or fold if you get shoved on then I'd struggle but hope I'd be able to fold. These 78/9 type guys usually like to see a cheap flop and don't call too many raises(check there call open% as some just love seeing flops no matter what) so I pfr might take it right there. You could also take a cheap flop and try to keep the pot real small. Your pretty much tied for 1st place equity right now and shouldn't be willing to risk that.

pretty much what I was thinking, check it back and play an A or K high flop aggressively, otherwise I wouldn't go nuts on the hand.

 

[cardplayer52]

pretty much what I was thinking, check it back and play an A or K high flop aggressively, otherwise I wouldn't go nuts on the hand.

The pfr raise is solely based on my read of the villian. Is he likely to fold preflop or is he the type to see flops? Either way I'm not getting stacked without seeing a flop. And even then it's got to be a cooler.

 

[cjatud2012]

Well OP said he calls with 77+ AT+ and KQ, which is ~10% of hands, if he's really limping ~80% of hands here then we can shove profitably, but it's hard to know even with HUD stats as they're not really static through the whole tournament, a person's play is very fluid depending on what phase they're at.

Even so, I think I'd rather take the free flop as you would and then make a decision about putting all of my equity on the line.

 

[WiZZiM]

I honestly don't really care what SNG wiz has to say in this spot. It is similar to the other spot, but in this one i feel that we gain a lot more from shoving. If we jam here and take the blinds (which happens a ton), we can now shove much wider into the CL next hand, suddenly we are the chip leader and can now rape the bubble.

The blinds are much higher than the other example, it really won't take much for us to bubble this thing, all it would take is a shortstack to double through us and suddenly we're in a bad position. So we are still likely to have to take a risk in this tournament, sitting back and blinding out is NOT a good play.

So while this is probably a strictly ICM mistake. We know that it works in a vacuum and doesn't take into account how much of an effect a shift in table dynamics can have. If we shove here and win(again, which happens a lot), we can now shove much wider into that same player next hand, suddenly we're the overwhelming chip leader and can now pwn the bubble.

Raising here is dumb.

In my opinion, our only alternate option is to just check it, and donk most flops. But against a guy like this, what flop are we happy donking? Shove it, he folds (or calls with far worse) and we can now take control of the bubble.

 

[imwatcher]

Thanks guys this is a really interesting discussion, just wondering what exactly does sngwiz say if he is calling 10% or something like that? in the game he woke up with QQ i didnt hit and bubbled, i guess that was why i posted it, but i realised that it was actually quite a close spot.. From the guys stats though i think it suggests that he was raising QQ which is why i was so surprised.. so even if he is calling with 10% of his limping range (his limping range was what, 79% lol) then i am still crushing that range.. raising here seems rediculous to me.. if he calls and flop comes 10 2 5, i am just folding that? and losing 1/4th of my stack? seems crazy to me... this is a shove or a check imo.. I see what both sides are saying, I think it is maybe important that this is a turbo, so the blinds are going to be huge very quickly, meaning in the space of 25-30 hands I could be the shortstack if i sat back.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I honestly don't really care what SNG wiz has to say in this spot. It is similar to the other spot, but in this one i feel that we gain a lot more from shoving. If we jam here and take the blinds (which happens a ton), we can now shove much wider into the CL next hand, suddenly we are the chip leader and can now rape the bubble.

The blinds are much higher than the other example, it really won't take much for us to bubble this thing, all it would take is a shortstack to double through us and suddenly we're in a bad position. So we are still likely to have to take a risk in this tournament, sitting back and blinding out is NOT a good play.

So while this is probably a strictly ICM mistake. We know that it works in a vacuum and doesn't take into account how much of an effect a shift in table dynamics can have. If we shove here and win(again, which happens a lot), we can now shove much wider into that same player next hand, suddenly we're the overwhelming chip leader and can now pwn the bubble.

Raising here is dumb.

In my opinion, our only alternate option is to just check it, and donk most flops. But against a guy like this, what flop are we happy donking? Shove it, he folds (or calls with far worse) and we can now take control of the bubble.

Well I did the math and from a strictly ICM standpoint shoving isnt bad and playing fit or fold isnt bad. Pretty close to ev neutral. I can show the work if anyone is interested but I didnt really do it for "publication"(lol) so its pretty sloppy.


I am slightly confused however on how a shove/fold changes the table dynamics that much. We were slightly behind first and now its a virtual tie but The next hand we would be in the sb with one of the shortstacks in the BB(and already invested with nearly 1/5 his stack) how wide are we shoving here? If the Big stack shoves from utg we have to fold pretty much everything and then we are back to where we started.

I have no problem with shoving here or playing fit or fold really but I think the idea of a shove/fold giving us the the fast track to owning the bubble is a bit optomistic.

 

[imwatcher]

Well I did the math and from a strictly ICM standpoint shoving isnt bad and playing fit or fold isnt bad. Pretty close to ev neutral. I can show the work if anyone is interested but I didnt really do it for "publication"(lol) so its pretty sloppy.


I am slightly confused however on how a shove/fold changes the table dynamics that much. We were slightly behind first and now its a virtual tie but The next hand we would be in the sb with one of the shortstacks in the BB(and already invested with nearly 1/5 his stack) how wide are we shoving here? If the Big stack shoves from utg we have to fold pretty much everything and then we are back to where we started.

I have no problem with shoving here or playing fit or fold really but I think the idea of a shove/fold giving us the the fast track to owning the bubble is a bit optomistic.

I think if i check/fold this then i am left with 3.8k then i am shoving pretty wide in the SB if it is folded to me, all it needs is a call from the BB next hand and i would be down to 1.6k (if he won) and he would be on about 4.3k, compared with if I shove here pick up the chips and next hand i double the shortstack i am 2.2k which is MUCH healthier than 1.6k, and it means we are quite far ahead of the other shortstack.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I think if i check/fold this then i am left with 3.8k then i am shoving pretty wide in the SB if it is folded to me, all it needs is a call from the BB next hand and i would be down to 1.6k (if he won) and he would be on about 4.3k, compared with if I shove here pick up the chips and next hand i double the shortstack i am 2.2k which is MUCH healthier than 1.6k, and it means we are quite far ahead of the other shortstack.

well if you want to risk your tourney equity by shoving wide against a stack that is desperate to double up and already has a fifth of his stack invested you go right on ahead.