$1.10 NLHE STT: DoN 2nd hand, flopped top set, turned quads, could I have gotten more value here?

[Propane Goat]

$1.10 NLHE STT: DoN 2nd hand, flopped top set, turned quads, could I have gotten more value here?

Blinds and antes are 0/10/20, second hand of the tournament. No reads on villain at this point, although I discuss later reads in spoiler.

Hero ($1500) is in BB with .

UTG ($1500) limps.

UTG+2 ($1500) limps.

Button ($1500) limps.

Hero checks, flop: . Pot size = $110.

Hero bets $110, UTG calls. All others fold.

Turn:

Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: .

Pot size = $330, hero bets $100.

UTG calls.

Spoiler

UTG turned over at showdown and subsequent observation proved villain to be extremely loose-passive (which tied right in with the UTG limp with Queens).

I was hoping villain was chasing the straight and that the river filled it, hindsight is always 20/20 and looking back I would have bet half-pot on the turn as well because he would have called.

With no player reads at all, would you have taken this same line? Maybe a bigger river bet?

Your thoughts appreciated.

 

[horizon12]

I think for villain we can assume range hands like pairs or middle suited connectors is generally.... In river i bet much more 250-280 enough...

You can also have to raise in preflop 120, what isolate all limps... Because most of time in flop be 1 overcard ,and vs 3 player, will usually fold if not get set... ( 22-88 its fine limp, but 99 it already strong hand and in postflop game it is desirable that there was less players )

 

[Propane Goat]

Good point about raising pre, I've been in multiple situations with these games though that most of the limpers will call anyway because it's the first level and everybody has plenty of chips, there will be overcards on the flop, then I would have to play a large pot OOP. I was hoping for a bluff on the river, but not happening with this type of villain.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Man, raise pre flop for sure, we should never check our option in this spot.

Usually I don't advise pot sized bets but given the board texture and multiway, chances are someone has a decent piece so I like the bet on the flop. Don't like the turn check though, there are plenty of worse hands that can still call. The only time I'd advise checking OOP here is if the board is super dry because in this spot villain is either calling or not. I mean, he either has a piece which is calling another bet on the turn or has some sort of draw which he's calling and we don't want him to miss the river and us lose a bet on the turn when he just folds.

River is ok, I'd probs bet a little more but it's ok. That card is actually so nice because he could very well have Jx here and I think he's still calling a decent sized bet with Jx or even a pair.

 

[kefir]

I would have raised pre to 100 and bet the turn smallish. Something like the same size bet like on the flop. And half-pot on the river. I mean it is clear that this guy you wouldn't have chased away even with all-in. But you want also to keep in the pot every pair. And pre-flop raise is also good, because it makes you flop bet look like a c-bet. Like played you are clearly showing some kind of strength on the flop.

 

[suby_rafael]

Since the turn was checked, you could have fired atleast a pot sized bet or even bigger to make it look like a steal. So you missed some value on the river but this frequently happens where we miss value or think we haven't got enough or could have got more. We always want more !!

 

[hffjd2000]

You should at least bet on the turn to maximize value.

I also thought your river bet is too small.

 

[Propane Goat]

I appreciate the help everyone, I knew I didn't play this hand anywhere even close to optimally so it's a huge help to get some other perspectives.

Lately pocket pairs have overwhelmingly done nothing but cost me chips including getting knocked out by a flopped set over set, so I was a little gun-shy to raise pre here which I should have done.

Thanks Ram for the point about betting the turn even with the stone cold nuts, I keep forgetting that if people chasing draws don't hit on the river then they're done paying and you lose value on the turn that way, and possibly on the river too if they miss and the pot is big enough to try and bluff at.

The way I played this I think it would have been more likely in the long run that I would have just seen everybody fold on the flop, but as I said earlier I had been getting sick of raising preflop with pocket pairs, getting callers, then having multiple overcards hit the board and either being check-raised or donked into with a pot-sized bet or more.

I'm constantly amazed at how drastically tilt affects everything in poker

 

[marksmith7]

Be careful with the advice you get on here. Not a lot has been written about DON's and therefore DON strategy advice is pretty bad. This is not a cash game or even a normal SNG. I think you played this very well, much better than most. There are a few things I would have done differently.

Pre- This is a 1.10 DON and you need to play tight early, real tight. Since the stakes are so low these guys aren't folding to a normal sized bet pre like they should. You need to understand that and not raise pre. You are strictly set mining with your 99. If you flop an overpair you are not going to play it like one against 3 people who likely aren't smart enough to fold to a normal sized 1/2-3/4 pot sized bet on the flop so you can not C-bet an overpair. If you are not going to try and C-bet the overpair why bloat the pot with a raise pre? When I said real tight here I wasn't kidding. Correct move here pre is to check. Nice job.

Flop- You flop top set on a draw heavy board. Your instinct to bet big here is absolutely correct. You've likely got the best hand but understand your going to be check-folding to any 5 7 or 10 on the turn or river. Quick math tells us thats going to happen about 48% of the time. You are perfectly happy with the villians folding away thier equity here so I like the large bet. The only thing I would have done differently was make it a bit larger. Dont worry if these guys give you a hard time about overpotting. They dont understand the DON dynamics. A 110 chip bet the villians can afford to draw, miss and can still easily come back from. A 200-250 chip bet is going to make this a real expensive draw for them and your not real happy about them drawing. I would have bet more here if I were you. I also would have been ok with you shoving here. Remember in low stakes Dons they'll call with overpairs, TPTK, TPGK, TPNK, draws, and occasionally some other trash. Another move you could have considered is the CRAI. Its a move that is a bit risky. I wouldnt be the least bit worried about someone having 107 or 75 here if they flopped a straight to your top set, thats poker. We try to hit the Full House or Quads and if we miss chalk it up as a cooler and move on. The real danger here is if it checks behind us we have just given the villians a free card which can easily beat us. If you had a read on any three of these guys that they would likely stab at the pot here CRAI is probobly the best move.

Turn-Money card. If he has a straight at this point you will win his stack no matter how you play it. In the likely event he is drawing for a straight you do not want to scare him off this pot. You also want to try and feign weakness here trying to get him to stab/bluff potential trash and missed draws at this pot. The right move here is to check, and its not even close. Nice job.

River- A bunch of straight draws just got there which is really good for us. If he just hit a straight we are stacking him here every time and how much we bet is irrelevant. We need to play this like he missed the straight and ask ourselves if he missed the straight and has a 7x, 8x or oddly slow played overpair how much can we get out of him here? Being that the board looks scary to our villian where we can beat him with a 9 5 or 10 the answer to this question is not much. Your instincts to bet small here were right on. I would have maybe gone a touch bigger simply because there is a 1/3 pot button on my computer but I think your bet here is solid. You bet more than that he's folding here. Nice job.

I understand that it is frustrating when sometimes you are able to stack someone with a bluff catcher and when you pick up an absolute monster you cant get much out of him. Try not to overthink it.

 

[basse]

Man, raise pre flop for sure, we should never check our option in this spot.

Usually I don't advise pot sized bets but given the board texture and multiway, chances are someone has a decent piece so I like the bet on the flop. Don't like the turn check though, there are plenty of worse hands that can still call. The only time I'd advise checking OOP here is if the board is super dry because in this spot villain is either calling or not. I mean, he either has a piece which is calling another bet on the turn or has some sort of draw which he's calling and we don't want him to miss the river and us lose a bet on the turn when he just folds.

River is ok, I'd probs bet a little more but it's ok. That card is actually so nice because he could very well have Jx here and I think he's still calling a decent sized bet with Jx or even a pair.

I don't understand the raise preflop here. With 3 other people in the pot, somebody's bound to have a hand that beats Hero preflop, and this person will almost certainly call. Can you explain what you think the raise should be, and the rationale behind it? For any overpair, Hero is 1 : 4 to win. With 1BB raise, there's a good chance that more than 1 person gets in. With a 2BB raise, say only the one person with an overpair calls, then hero has 1 : 3 pot odds. Am I missing something in relation to implied odds, or something else?

 

[kefir]

I don't understand the raise preflop here. With 3 other people in the pot, somebody's bound to have a hand that beats Hero preflop, and this person will almost certainly call. Can you explain what you think the raise should be, and the rationale behind it? For any overpair, Hero is 1 : 4 to win. With 1BB raise, there's a good chance that more than 1 person gets in. With a 2BB raise, say only the one person with an overpair calls, then hero has 1 : 3 pot odds. Am I missing something in relation to implied odds, or something else?

I would have raised pre and have raised something solid, like pot sized bet. The limping of the others pre tells me, that overpairs are very unprobable. Then a pot sized bet would get something like one caller with 2 overcards in worst case. Then you are immediately at least flipping. This all is clearly based on this assumption of no overpairs in a limped pot. That is at least my reasoning beyond the pre raise

 

[basse]

I would have raised pre and have raised something solid, like pot sized bet. The limping of the others pre tells me, that overpairs are very unprobable. Then a pot sized bet would get something like one caller with 2 overcards in worst case. Then you are immediately at least flipping. This all is clearly based on this assumption of no overpairs in a limped pot. That is at least my reasoning beyond the pre raise

I think no overpairs is a reasonable assumption against good players. But being at a $1.10 table, isn't it fairly likely that someone could have an overpair and just limp, given that we have 3 people? I'm legitimately asking, btw. I don't really have much table experience, so I wouldn't really know.

 

[marksmith7]

I think no overpairs is a reasonable assumption against good players. But being at a $1.10 table, isn't it fairly likely that someone could have an overpair and just limp, given that we have 3 people? I'm legitimately asking, btw. I don't really have much table experience, so I wouldn't really know.

No overpairs here is a fairly reasonable assumption. At low stakes Don's people are playing way to aggressively because all of the strategy books, guides, websites etc. teach aggression in cash games, mtt's, and to a lesser extent SNG's. I would not put any of these players on an over pair. That being said it is still a mistake to raise pre. At low stakes guys dont often limp/fold. If they put chips in they at least want to see a flop. I would bet a pot sized bet pre would get at least two callers. There is also a chance that QQ was going for a limp shove pre and we took the bait. If we miss the set the correct play is going to be to check fold to any TJQKA flop. C-betting with less than top pair early on in a low stakes DON is suicide. We definitely can not to afford to double barrel and out of position we would be check folding all non 9 turns and rivers. That gives our villians multiple chances to stab at what would be a good sized pot which they would almost certainly do.

 

[Propane Goat]

No overpairs here is a fairly reasonable assumption. At low stakes Don's people are playing way to aggressively because all of the strategy books, guides, websites etc. teach aggression in cash games, mtt's, and to a lesser extent SNG's. I would not put any of these players on an over pair. That being said it is still a mistake to raise pre. At low stakes guys dont often limp/fold. If they put chips in they at least want to see a flop. I would bet a pot sized bet pre would get at least two callers. There is also a chance that QQ was going for a limp shove pre and we took the bait. If we miss the set the correct play is going to be to check fold to any TJQKA flop. C-betting with less than top pair early on in a low stakes DON is suicide. We definitely can not to afford to double barrel and out of position we would be check folding all non 9 turns and rivers. That gives our villians multiple chances to stab at what would be a good sized pot which they would almost certainly do.

Thanks for your analysis Mark, my thinking process preflop at the time was along these lines because I have seen it again and again where once people have money in the pot in the first level of these games, they refuse to fold even to 5BB raises or more. The primary reason I checked here in the BB was because of position, and also because I had never played against any of the villains before and therefore had no reads at all. I have also seen some here on CC advocate limping AA/KK in the first couple of levels of DoN's too, so it's definitely possible and I have seen it more than once.

I've only recently started to become slightly profitable in these, and most of my improvements have had to come from observation and my own analysis, since there isn't much available out there in terms of DoN strategy guides.

 

[marksmith7]

Thanks for your analysis Mark, my thinking process preflop at the time was along these lines because I have seen it again and again where once people have money in the pot in the first level of these games, they refuse to fold even to 5BB raises or more. The primary reason I checked here in the BB was because of position, and also because I had never played against any of the villains before and therefore had no reads at all. I have also seen some here on CC advocate limping AA/KK in the first couple of levels of DoN's too, so it's definitely possible and I have seen it more than once.

I've only recently started to become slightly profitable in these, and most of my improvements have had to come from observation and my own analysis, since there isn't much available out there in terms of DoN strategy guides.

Yea I play 6 max DON's I assume your playing 10? The strategy is similar in both. One of the worst parts about the DON's is also the best. Nobody has figured an optimal way to play them and written a clear book about it yet. This makes them difficult to learn. It also makes them quite profitable if you are able to learn because your opponents at the low levels play terrible. At the high levels the play is better but still full of mistakes.

The biggest mistakes I see from low level and new players is that they play overpairs early on in DON's like they would in a cash game: Raise pre, bet flop, bet (or shove) turn. This inevitably leads to them winning small pots and losing big ones. The line I prefer with AA is limp shove from EP, 3 bet shove from LP, or open shove from anywhere based on opponents. You would be shocked how often they call with all kinds of goofy hands. Remember even the best DON players are ITM no more than 65% so its not the end of the world to have your aces cracked every once in a while if you are AIPF. Sometimes if my opponents are maniacs/fish I'll play KK the same way.

The other major mistake people make is late in tournaments they call shoves way too wide. Remember to first calculate your TE. Then look at your cards vs villians range. If your TE is larger than your PE fold. If you still have a descent sized stack its extremely rare for you to call with less than 99+ AQ+. Most of the time its incorrect to call with 99-JJ AQ. AK is usually a good call BvB but should be folded in most other spots. QQ is close to an ev nuetral call more often than not. KK is usually a very profitable call. AA is a snap call unless facing a shove from a deep stack when there is a micro stack at the table.

 

[kefir]

I have run through equilab 3 players one with 99 and the other 2 with the same range of TT-22,ATs-A2s,K2s+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,A9o-A2o,KJo+,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o.
99 has 50 % of the equity. The other two have 25%.
If you disagree with assumed range for the other two, you can modify it and see the outcome.

 

[marksmith7]

I have run through equilab 3 players one with 99 and the other 2 with the same range of TT-22,ATs-A2s,K2s+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,A9o-A2o,KJo+,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o.
99 has 50 % of the equity. The other two have 25%.
If you disagree with assumed range for the other two, you can modify it and see the outcome.

Kefir we are only interested in PE calculations from equilab if both players are AIPF. Since we are not pushing or calling a push pre with 99 in the early rounds of a DON the calculations are irrelevant. We base our preflop play on the postflop line we plan on taking not our preflop PE. Since it is correct not to Cbet 99 on boards where we miss the flop (which will happen more than 7 out of 8 times) we don't want to bloat the pot. Being OOP our villians would then have 3 streets to bluff at the pot all of which we would have to fold to. Understand DON strategy requires ultra tight play in the early rounds. The reason for this is because in DON's losing a chip is about 3X as bad as gaining a chip is good.

 

[Propane Goat]

Yea I play 6 max DON's I assume your playing 10? The strategy is similar in both. One of the worst parts about the DON's is also the best. Nobody has figured an optimal way to play them and written a clear book about it yet. This makes them difficult to learn. It also makes them quite profitable if you are able to learn because your opponents at the low levels play terrible. At the high levels the play is better but still full of mistakes.

The biggest mistakes I see from low level and new players is that they play overpairs early on in DON's like they would in a cash game: Raise pre, bet flop, bet (or shove) turn. This inevitably leads to them winning small pots and losing big ones. The line I prefer with AA is limp shove from EP, 3 bet shove from LP, or open shove from anywhere based on opponents. You would be shocked how often they call with all kinds of goofy hands. Remember even the best DON players are ITM no more than 65% so its not the end of the world to have your aces cracked every once in a while if you are AIPF. Sometimes if my opponents are maniacs/fish I'll play KK the same way.

The other major mistake people make is late in tournaments they call shoves way too wide. Remember to first calculate your TE. Then look at your cards vs villians range. If your TE is larger than your PE fold. If you still have a descent sized stack its extremely rare for you to call with less than 99+ AQ+. Most of the time its incorrect to call with 99-JJ AQ. AK is usually a good call BvB but should be folded in most other spots. QQ is close to an ev nuetral call more often than not. KK is usually a very profitable call. AA is a snap call unless facing a shove from a deep stack when there is a micro stack at the table.

I play the 10-max DoN's on Carbon, that's pretty much all I play there. For regular SNG's and MTT's I'm usually on Bovada.

I've made all of these mistakes and then some, I think one of the reasons it's so hard to come up with a clear-cut strategy for DoN's is that the optimal play varies so tremendously based on the table dynamics. I've been in games where I've cashed without playing a single hand and knew this was going to be the case after watching the first couple of rounds. I've also been in games where I've had to keep open-raising in later positions and BvB with very marginal hands just to stay ahead of the blinds, because the table was full of nits and I would have been blinded out waiting for top 10% hands.

I don't remember ever seeing anyone limp-shove in the first couple of levels in the games I've been playing. I've seen it a number of times on the bubble when blinds were getting high, usually if called they showed AK or QQ+.

One should be very reluctant to call all-ins on the bubble in these, this has been one of my biggest leaks in the past and I see people doing this constantly with hands like KTs, A2-A5, small pairs, and even stuff like 76s.

 

[marksmith7]

I play the 10-max DoN's on Carbon, that's pretty much all I play there. For regular SNG's and MTT's I'm usually on Bovada.

I've made all of these mistakes and then some, I think one of the reasons it's so hard to come up with a clear-cut strategy for DoN's is that the optimal play varies so tremendously based on the table dynamics. I've been in games where I've cashed without playing a single hand and knew this was going to be the case after watching the first couple of rounds. I've also been in games where I've had to keep open-raising in later positions and BvB with very marginal hands just to stay ahead of the blinds, because the table was full of nits and I would have been blinded out waiting for top 10% hands.

I don't remember ever seeing anyone limp-shove in the first couple of levels in the games I've been playing. I've seen it a number of times on the bubble when blinds were getting high, usually if called they showed AK or QQ+.

One should be very reluctant to call all-ins on the bubble in these, this has been one of my biggest leaks in the past and I see people doing this constantly with hands like KTs, A2-A5, small pairs, and even stuff like 76s.

Yea I play mostly 6max on WPN. I've been hunting the forums for a long time for people to discuss hands with and have had no luck. I thought we were going to get something going with this thread. I started a few other ones and I only got 1 person to reply with rather abc advice. If you want to discuss DON hands in the future start a thread or pm me.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

preflop: both raising and checking are fine (provided that you won't lose too many chips with just an overpair). Later in the tourney I'll almost always raise with a hand as strong as 99 in my BB. Early on, I tend to agree with you that raising doesn't really get anybody to fold and so you end up playing a large pot out of position, multiway with a marginal hand. In your specific spot I probably check my option 70% of the time and raise 30% of the time. But I am very confident in my post flop play and ability to gauge whether my hand is best, and I have no problems folding an overpair.

Flop: your bet is fine. I would have bet a little bit less with such a strong hand because: #1 I want to encourage action, not discourage it. #2 my normal bet size is between 50-67% so I want to provide camoflage for my other flop bets.

Turn: 100% depends on how strong you think he is. If you think he is weak, then it's OK to check the turn but you have to try to make up that value on the river by betting bigger and letting him "bluff catch" you with his weak hand. If you bet the turn, then you can justify betting smaller on the river to squeeze out value from marginal hands. So it's all your read. I'll tend to bet small on this turn quite often, giving good odds for draws to continue and building a pot that I'm guaranteed to win.

River: Since you did elect to check the turn, you simply have to go for more value on this river and hope your line looks "bluffy". sometimes they'll have a strong hand like a straight and so obviously you want to bet as much as possible. sometimes they'll have a marginal hand and think you're trying to buy the pot and they'll play sherriff, so a bigger bet is better. and when they have nothing, even the tiniest bet won't earn you anything. So I favor a pot sized river bet (because you checked the turn).

 

[joe777]

I would raise pot size on the flop just to make the villain feel hes already committed

and again another pot size bet on turn and after that you can easily shove the river.

 

[marksmith7]

preflop: both raising and checking are fine (provided that you won't lose too many chips with just an overpair). Later in the tourney I'll almost always raise with a hand as strong as 99 in my BB. Early on, I tend to agree with you that raising doesn't really get anybody to fold and so you end up playing a large pot out of position, multiway with a marginal hand. In your specific spot I probably check my option 70% of the time and raise 30% of the time. But I am very confident in my post flop play and ability to gauge whether my hand is best, and I have no problems folding an overpair.

Flop: your bet is fine. I would have bet a little bit less with such a strong hand because: #1 I want to encourage action, not discourage it. #2 my normal bet size is between 50-67% so I want to provide camoflage for my other flop bets.

Turn: 100% depends on how strong you think he is. If you think he is weak, then it's OK to check the turn but you have to try to make up that value on the river by betting bigger and letting him "bluff catch" you with his weak hand. If you bet the turn, then you can justify betting smaller on the river to squeeze out value from marginal hands. So it's all your read. I'll tend to bet small on this turn quite often, giving good odds for draws to continue and building a pot that I'm guaranteed to win.

River: Since you did elect to check the turn, you simply have to go for more value on this river and hope your line looks "bluffy". sometimes they'll have a strong hand like a straight and so obviously you want to bet as much as possible. sometimes they'll have a marginal hand and think you're trying to buy the pot and they'll play sherriff, so a bigger bet is better. and when they have nothing, even the tiniest bet won't earn you anything. So I favor a pot sized river bet (because you checked the turn).

Although I don't agree with some of what she has posted, especially on the turn, these lines are much more reasonable than some of the other ones posted on this thread.

 

[Propane Goat]

preflop: both raising and checking are fine (provided that you won't lose too many chips with just an overpair). Later in the tourney I'll almost always raise with a hand as strong as 99 in my BB. Early on, I tend to agree with you that raising doesn't really get anybody to fold and so you end up playing a large pot out of position, multiway with a marginal hand. In your specific spot I probably check my option 70% of the time and raise 30% of the time. But I am very confident in my post flop play and ability to gauge whether my hand is best, and I have no problems folding an overpair.

Flop: your bet is fine. I would have bet a little bit less with such a strong hand because: #1 I want to encourage action, not discourage it. #2 my normal bet size is between 50-67% so I want to provide camoflage for my other flop bets.

Turn: 100% depends on how strong you think he is. If you think he is weak, then it's OK to check the turn but you have to try to make up that value on the river by betting bigger and letting him "bluff catch" you with his weak hand. If you bet the turn, then you can justify betting smaller on the river to squeeze out value from marginal hands. So it's all your read. I'll tend to bet small on this turn quite often, giving good odds for draws to continue and building a pot that I'm guaranteed to win.

River: Since you did elect to check the turn, you simply have to go for more value on this river and hope your line looks "bluffy". sometimes they'll have a strong hand like a straight and so obviously you want to bet as much as possible. sometimes they'll have a marginal hand and think you're trying to buy the pot and they'll play sherriff, so a bigger bet is better. and when they have nothing, even the tiniest bet won't earn you anything. So I favor a pot sized river bet (because you checked the turn).

I would raise pot size on the flop just to make the villain feel hes already committed

and again another pot size bet on turn and after that you can easily shove the river.

Although I don't agree with some of what she has posted, especially on the turn, these lines are much more reasonable than some of the other ones posted on this thread.

As always, I really appreciate your thoughts, guys. Thanks a million!

 

[kefir]

Kefir we are only interested in PE calculations from equilab if both players are AIPF. Since we are not pushing or calling a push pre with 99 in the early rounds of a DON the calculations are irrelevant. We base our preflop play on the postflop line we plan on taking not our preflop PE. Since it is correct not to Cbet 99 on boards where we miss the flop (which will happen more than 7 out of 8 times) we don't want to bloat the pot. Being OOP our villians would then have 3 streets to bluff at the pot all of which we would have to fold to. Understand DON strategy requires ultra tight play in the early rounds. The reason for this is because in DON's losing a chip is about 3X as bad as gaining a chip is good.

Are they? I was thinking that the equilab calc gives basically the probability of winning the pot. This would mean, that if it gives us pre 50% and others both 25%, then we should try to make the pot big preflop. We basically put 1/3 of the pot into the pot and our equity is 0.5 of the pot. Clearly the difficulty is, what part of the assumed villains range is gonna call us. But you claimed somewhere in the thread, that we will be called anyway. But it can totally be that I am talking crap.

 

[marksmith7]

Are they? I was thinking that the equilab calc gives basically the probability of winning the pot. This would mean, that if it gives us pre 50% and others both 25%, then we should try to make the pot big preflop. We basically put 1/3 of the pot into the pot and our equity is 0.5 of the pot. Clearly the difficulty is, what part of the assumed villains range is gonna call us. But you claimed somewhere in the thread, that we will be called anyway. But it can totally be that I am talking crap.

Sorry if I wasnt clear, or if i sounded like a jerk, it was not my intent. Equilab gives us our Pot Equity, which is not exactly the same as the probability of winning the pot but its close enough. Equilab's calculations are limited because they don't take into account fold equity on later streets. For example lets say you are correct and we play this pot 3 way and we have 50% vs 25% vs 25%. Now lets say the flop comes and we miss the flop but we decide to shove. Both villains are calling if they've hit a set, trips, two pair, straight, flush, and sometimes top pair, four flush, and OESD. The overwhelming majority of the time they are going to both fold. We only had 50% pot equity to start but we just took down this pot well over 90% of the time when both villains miss. This is not a line I would recommend taking but as you can see even though we only had 50% to start we used fold equity to get us the pot a lot more than 50% of the time. The same thing can be used against us.

If we decide to play this passively, which is what I would recommend, then we would be looking to play for stacks if we hit our set, but not commit another chip if we miss. This gives 2 opponents the flop, the turn, and the river to bet at us all of which we are going to fold to. The odds of one of them betting at us at least once is well over 90% and despite the fact we started with 50% they will be using fold equity to get them a lot more than 25% of the pots. Now if you could guarantee me that neither one of them would bet the flop, turn, or river I would absolutely recommend you raise pre. The only way you could guarantee that is if we had it all in preflop. Now if the big blinds we're 200 chips or more and the villains took these line pre I would definitely agree with your equilab calculations and say stack off pre because we likely have a large equity edge.