$1.10 NLHE MTT: AA value bet or no?

[byrnsiey330]

Table and Position Review
Game #77011251-14: $100 Gtd - [+R, Turbo] - No Limit Holdem Tournament - 30.00/60.00

No reads on the villian right away so we are looking at pretty general ranges.

Seat #0: hero, $1705.00
Seat #1: Poophead123, $1750.00
Seat #2: seeschell (D), $3898.00
Seat #4: BuckeyeMikeTH306 (SB), $2394.00
Seat #5: OSUbeavers503 (BB), $4046.00
Seat #6: BadBuddha, $3655.00
Seat #7: 2outsnp, $4773.00
Seat #8: pwohar430, $1547.00

*** Blinds ***
BuckeyeMikeTH306 posts the small blind of 30.00
OSUbeavers503 posts the big blind of 60.00

*** Pre-Flop ***
Hero got hole cards [ As: Ac: ]
BadBuddha folds
2outsnp folds
pwohar430 calls 60.00
Hero raises with 150.00
Poophead123 folds
seeschell folds
BuckeyeMikeTH306 folds
OSUbeavers503 calls 90.00
pwohar430 calls 90.00

Villian's Range (limping, then calling with great odds): 22-99, A2-AT (raise or reraise from better), K7o+, K8o+, QTo+, 56s+, and some suited one gappers.

*** Flop *** Pot: 480
[ 9h: Ks: Jc: ]
OSUbeavers503 checks
pwohar430 checks
Hero bets 240.00
OSUbeavers503 folds
pwohar430 calls 240.00

Hoping he hit a piece, bet, get called. Can narrow his range to: a float, A9, AT, K7s+, K8o+, JTs, J9s, KJ, 99, Q9/QT, 67s

equity: 62%

*** Turn *** Pot: 960
[ 9h: Ks: Jc: ] [ 8d: ]
pwohar430 checks
Hero bets 480.00
pwohar430 calls 480.00

The 8 opens up some drawing hands I had in his range: AT, JTs, J9s, 67s also might have hit a Kx hand, but I'm still thinking he's got one pair, or else he would have check raised me, or donk bet me. Also could be on a draw.

*** River *** Pot: 1920
[ 9h: Ks: Jc: ] [ 8d: ] [ 5d: ]
pwohar430 checks
Hero?

Didn't help a drawing hand exceptt 76s. My hand is pretty well disguised, so I think I might be able to get value out of a weak K? But with this board so connected, would I rather keep my the pot small with a hand like top pair? I feel like I am only going to get called by completed straights, and maybe a weak ace. Don't think I'll get called by MP.

 

[Arjonius]

Pre-. Why only make it 2.5x when there's already a limper in the pot?

Flop. Is the stated range the only reasonable possibility for an unknown? Yes, you have to make some assumptions with no real info. But you seem to give him relatively loose ranges both pre- and hers. With no info, shouldn't you at least consider that he may not be as loose?

I'm not against making thin reads based on little info. However, when you have little to go on, you're more likely to be anywhere from slightly to far off the mark. So, you should give more consideration to the range of reasonable possibilities, not just the one you feel is the most likely.

 

[horizon12]

Any way effective stack is small, , and need shove in river what gather additionally vs villain top pair.....

 

[m1neturtle]

"My hand is pretty well disguised, so I think I might be able to get value out of a weak K"

How is your hand disguised? You have AA and have either bet or raised at every opportunity.

Villain appears to be quite fishy based on his line so he would probably pay us off with Kx. The only problem is that he may have hit some janky 2pair combo. If we were deeper I'd probably bet/fold for 25-30%pot because I wouldn't expect villain to be capable of bluffraising river very often.

In this hand, however, he only has about 35%pot left in his stack, and we had a small SPR on the flop, so I'd usually just shove without a better read.

 

[benshouse99]

Table and Position Review
Game #77011251-14: $100 Gtd - [+R, Turbo] - No Limit Holdem Tournament - 30.00/60.00

No reads on the villian right away so we are looking at pretty general ranges.

Seat #0: hero, $1705.00
Seat #1: Poophead123, $1750.00
Seat #2: seeschell (D), $3898.00
Seat #4: BuckeyeMikeTH306 (SB), $2394.00
Seat #5: OSUbeavers503 (BB), $4046.00
Seat #6: BadBuddha, $3655.00
Seat #7: 2outsnp, $4773.00
Seat #8: pwohar430, $1547.00

*** Blinds ***
BuckeyeMikeTH306 posts the small blind of 30.00
OSUbeavers503 posts the big blind of 60.00

*** Pre-Flop ***
Hero got hole cards [ As: Ac: ]
BadBuddha folds
2outsnp folds
pwohar430 calls 60.00
Hero raises with 150.00
Poophead123 folds
seeschell folds
BuckeyeMikeTH306 folds
OSUbeavers503 calls 90.00
pwohar430 calls 90.00

Villian's Range (limping, then calling with great odds): 22-99, A2-AT (raise or reraise from better), K7o+, K8o+, QTo+, 56s+, and some suited one gappers.

*** Flop *** Pot: 480
[ 9h: Ks: Jc: ]
OSUbeavers503 checks
pwohar430 checks
Hero bets 240.00
OSUbeavers503 folds
pwohar430 calls 240.00

Hoping he hit a piece, bet, get called. Can narrow his range to: a float, A9, AT, K7s+, K8o+, JTs, J9s, KJ, 99, Q9/QT, 67s

Equity: 62%

*** Turn *** Pot: 960
[ 9h: Ks: Jc: ] [ 8d: ]
pwohar430 checks
Hero bets 480.00
pwohar430 calls 480.00

The 8 opens up some drawing hands I had in his range: AT, JTs, J9s, 67s also might have hit a Kx hand, but I'm still thinking he's got one pair, or else he would have check raised me, or donk bet me. Also could be on a draw.

*** River *** Pot: 1920
[ 9h: Ks: Jc: ] [ 8d: ] [ 5d: ]
pwohar430 checks
Hero?

Didn't help a drawing hand exceptt 76s. My hand is pretty well disguised, so I think I might be able to get value out of a weak K? But with this board so connected, would I rather keep my the pot small with a hand like top pair? I feel like I am only going to get called by completed straights, and maybe a weak ace. Don't think I'll get called by MP.

- Raise larger pre.
- Bet larger on flop/turn, you're giving draws a great price to call
- Shove river. Nits will stack off a lot of Kx hands. Altho sometimes villain will have some random 2 pair or be slowing playing a straight, the chance of this happening is very unlikely and in the long run the most profitable play is a shove to get value from those Kx hands.

 

[suby_rafael]

I think i would check here because it is easy for the villain to make two pair on this wet board. If we bet he will more often than not call with two pair and fold a single pair and missed draws obviously. So i think there is not much value in betting.
On the other hand betting the river does make us vulnerable to a check raise as villain can check raise for value or as a bluff whereas we cannot call this raise.

 

[X at Tripaces]

I think i would check here because it is easy for the villain to make two pair on this wet board. If we bet he will more often than not call with two pair and fold a single pair and missed draws obviously. So i think there is not much value in betting.
On the other hand betting the river does make us vulnerable to a check raise as villain can check raise for value or as a bluff whereas we cannot call this raise.

My thoughts exactly.. The 2.5x bet pre wont get alot of those inbetween hands to fold this early.. I check the river if played like this, not going to get called by a losing hand (UNLESS villan is holding KK, which i dont see likely with the way they played it) suby summed it up... if you bet.. and they shove, you have to fold bc you know your rockets have been cracked.

 

[JPoling]

Raised too small pre-flop. Being that small of a bet I think that should actually put other player on a wider range of hands. After the flop just gets weird after that because pre-flop bet. After his calls on flop and turn. I think i'd be putting him on something like Kx J10, 810, 910, Jx, somewhere near there.

 

[Micro Maven]

As played, shove river

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

as played....check back the river. the pot is big enough and you just have 1 pair.

 

[Micro Maven]

as played....check back the river. the pot is big enough and you just have 1 pair.

Villain has 60% of his chips in the pot. Which 2 pair hand is he checking the river instead of shoving? It's a $1.10 tourney, he could have 10 hi in this spot but he's calling his last 600 with QJ, J10, most Ks. You are missing a ton of value if you check in this spot.