$1.10 NLHE MTT: 6-max turbo 10Js in BB

[mariussica88]

BTN stats after 30 hands (same player as previews hand): VPIP 61 PFR 36 Limp 16 Post Flop AGG 5 Flop C-bet 100 Turn C-bet 100 StealPct 60


Do you guys think that raising the Turn was a mistake?


pokerstars - 40/80 Ante 10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players


CO: 1,343 (16.8 bb)
BTN: 4,411 (55.1 bb)
SB: 2,544 (31.8 bb)
Hero (BB): 2,989 (37.4 bb)
UTG: 4,278 (53.5 bb)
MP: 2,474 (30.9 bb)

6 players post ante of 10, SB posts 40, Hero posts BB 80

Pre Flop: (pot: 180) Hero has
3 folds, BTN raises to 176, SB calls 136, Hero calls 96

Flop: (588, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 240, fold, Hero calls 240

Turn: (1,068, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 480, Hero raises to 1,190, BTN calls 710

River: (3,448, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Results: 3,448 pot (0 rake)
Final Board:

Spoiler

Hero shows : (High Card, King)
(Pre 40%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)

BTN shows : (Flush, King High)
(Pre 60%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)

BTN wins 3,448

 

[IADaveMark]

Simple answer, yes.

In fact, I don't like calling the 1/2 pot bet on the flop. If Villain has a K, you have 4 outs (9% to hit on turn, 18% by river). If villain has 2 clubs—especially with an over or two—you are really hurting because a lot of your outs to hit your T or J are now sucked up by their flush draw.

You are likely behind. Let it go.

That said, on the turn their may have completed their flush already or are on a 4-flush. And you still are behind. Sure, you might chase them off with the raise on the turn, but unlikely if they already have the flush or a strong draw.

 

[300HPGOD]

I think you need to be at least defending here as you did to just over min raise from the button when you have J10 suited. Villain raises a lot and has a high VPIP so we know they are wide here. If you have the stats on them that they fold to 3 bets pre often I think this is not a bad spot to put one in and see if you can take it down knowing if you get called even though you are out of position you have a hand that flops well. Without knowing any of that I think calling is the way to go.

On the flop its close to me. Against villains who arent opening as much or ones I know dont open the button as wide as others do this just a fold a move on but against a player like this I dont mind calling the flop to see what happens on the turn and see if villain double barrels or not. We only have 3 clean outs but a J or 10 is a potential out given villain is wide so im fine with calling.

On the turn I dont think a raise is terrible if you were deeper but I would not be doing it here. I called the flop to see what villain does on turn and they fire a bet that is nicely sized by them. I then fold here knowing they could have checked behind to pot control but they didnt. If you are going to raise here it needs to be a larger raise to have a better chance that one club hands will fold. The sizing that you would have to make it given your stack would be such a large chunk of it that you would be better off going all in. Again, I think folding here is the far better play.

As played on the river, you have over half your stack in at this point with J high on a 4 flush board and villain went no where on the turn. We know we are beat here but given how we played it, the 4th club maybe helps and we just jam it hoping villain will fold if they dont have Ace of clubs. For the record, I hate this play if we were to do it thats why we would have had to go all in on turn to bluff but as played with over half our stack in I think we just need to go with it and pray.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard defend.

Flop
I am never calling here, because its simply a losing play to call out of position with a bad draw like this. You have no overcards, no backdoor flushdraw, and there is even a flushdraw on the board, which you dont have, which cut down on your equity and implied odds. If you improve on Q of clubs, some percentage of the time you are just setting yourself up to get stacked by a flush, and the rest of the time, its difficult to get paid, because he will now be afraid, you have a flush.

So if you want to continue with a hand this bad, you need to do it with fold equity, because thats the only way, its ever going to be profitable. I dont like leading here, because SB is also in the hand, but you could consider a check-raise, when BTN C-bet, and SB gets out of the way. But I dont think, this is the right kind of opponent to do it against. Trying to bluff a maniac is like trying to fight fire with gasoline or manhandle a cow up a staircase. Its just not the way to beat these players, so for me I just fold here and wait to get involved, until I have a real hand.

Turn
Check-raising now is a terrible play in my opinion. I guess, you are trying to represent the flush, and its true, that 3c could be a scary card for him. But if that was the case, he would not have bet it. So if you were going to bluff here, then the better way to do it would be to lead out, since this would allow him to fold hands, he would otherwise check back with, so that you are not only bluffing against the strongest part of his range.

But I dont think, this is the right hand to bluff with. To go for a bluff here, you absolutely need to have a club in your hand, which you dont. And as I said already, I also dont think, this is the right opponent to bluff. Finally if you are going to check-raise, you should move all in, which is only around a pot sized bet. He is not going to fold, when you make this massage raise giving him almost 4 to 1.

River
I would never ever have arrived at the river like this, but as played I guess, its fine to give up. You only have a half pot sized bet left, and once again we dont beat maniacs by trying to force them to fold the best hand.