$1.1 NLHE MTT Rebuy: 88 10bb re shove utg raise?

Dubstep

Dubstep

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PokerStars - $1+$0.10|2500/5000 Ante 500 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 22.42 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 26)
CO: 16.19 BB (VPIP: 22.50, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 40)
BTN: 31.45 BB (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 10.90, 3Bet Preflop: 6.41, Hands: 221)
SB: 32.22 BB (VPIP: 47.06, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
BB: 19.68 BB (VPIP: 56.25, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 17)
UTG: 33.22 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG+1: 15.84 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
MP: 33.22 BB (VPIP: 41.18, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 37.50, Hands: 17)
Hero (MP+1): 9.58 BB

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has 8:club: 8:spade:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9.48 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 7.48 BB

Flop: (21.36 BB, 2 players) 5:heart: 9:club: J:heart:

Turn: (21.36 BB, 2 players) 5:spade:

River: (21.36 BB, 2 players) 8:heart:

UTG+1 shows A:heart: A:club: (Two Pair, Aces and Fives) (Pre 80%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 8:club: 8:spade: (Full House, Eights full of Fives) (Pre 20%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 21.36 BB
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Fold, he is shoving UTG and he is a nit. His ranges crushes you.
 
horizon12

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Fold, he is shoving UTG and he is a nit. His ranges crushes you.

Are you serious ?? 88 this our top range hands ( 5% ) , stack only 5M and this easy shove. In this situation 88 monster hand..
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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maybe tenbob misread and thought the UTG raiser jammed, but actually he just min raised.

I think it is a good jam with 88 and only 9bbs. realize that you're often getting called and you'll need to win a race but it's acceptable due to our short stack and a small amount of possible fold equity...and let's not forget SUCK OUT EQUITY!! ha ha ;)

And sometimes you'll get called by 66,77 or A8 and be nicely ahead.
 
tenbob

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Yep I thought the UTG player shoved.
 
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thatgreekdude

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Yeah looks fine, gunna be racing more often than not.
 
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scooba13

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The consensus seems to be to shove - consider the utg raiser - what's their range of hands for the minraise?

I'd assume you're going to get called on this stack size by all the hands he would minraise with so there is no fold equity.

Hands that crush you AA-99

Hands you're racing AK-AQ (prolly not AJ-AT unless loose opener, but maybe AJs)

If you call it about 40/60 between hands that cruch you and races:

Fuzzy math expected win rate =

.4*.2 (approx odds you'll beat an overpair) = .08
plus
.6 * .6 (approx odds you'll win a race)=.36

=44%

With a win rate at or below 50% you might want to wait for a better spot with 88. A fold isn't terrible.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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I wouldn't say the fold equity is ZERO, though it might be quite low. I'd guess there is at least 10-15% fold equity.

and certainly there are some players open UTG a range as tight as 99+ and AQ+ and if the OP thinks this player is one of them, then he should probably fold in this spot.

But a lot of players will open UTG with something like 66+ or 77+ and AJ+ and KQs. it really depends on the villain's range. but at worst 88 is usually flipping vs. that range, plus a tiny bit of fold equity....plus hero is running out of options...
 
MasterOfDisaster

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Again his gap is very huge in his stats, so I am really inclined to just fold this hand pre vs him TBH. He seems a huge fish so most hands you have beat he prolly openlimps here.

Only 9% total pfr and now minraises from UTG, prolly very tight utg openingsrange.
 
R

RamdeeBen

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Pretty sure this is a fold I think we fold based on positions.

I actually think when someone tight min opens UTG+1 in this spot rather than open shoving his range is always stronger so we can eliminate worse hands like 22-77.

I really expect to see better pairs or AQ+ here more times than not so at the very best we're flipping. I'm folding in this spot. Of course flipping for your stack when you're only 10bb is usually fine but I don't think we're even flipping enough to warrant a shove.

I'm probarbly ISO shoving AK TT+ in this spot.
 
Last edited:
R

RamdeeBen

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Are you serious ?? 88 this our top range hands ( 5% ) , stack only 5M and this easy shove. In this situation 88 monster hand..


It's not when based on positions and stack sizes vs this player.

Had this player done it say in a later position then it's fine, here is not. We don't look at our range of hands as being top 5%, we look at villains range of hands vs ours and his action and position.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Oh also I have to point out, in a micro tournament where people don't really balance their range had this guy open shoved, I think it's better to call because his range is wider and we can put all pairs, in his range like 33+ Ax suited, TJs KQs etcetc.

Vs good players though they know how to balance it and would open shove either all their range in this spot or min raise. This guy strikes me more as a fishy sort of player so his min raise represents more strength here hence the fold.
 
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joe777

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His PFR indicated he is nit and proven with the AA.You just got lucky to hit the trips.I would consider a fold.
 
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