I saw this a few days ago and worked on it over the weekend since I was a grumpy cat from the bad beats I took and just playing too much.
So what I came up was this was a preflop determination. Forget about the flop and forget about the outcome. First thing, I would ask myself is what type of player is UTG, do they actually know starting hands and what position to raise them in? If that's the case then lets play the range game!!
What are playable hands for UTG? What are the hands? Big pocket pairs down to 10s, maybe 9s, AKs-AJs, you want to throw in ATs? eh and KQs, and AKo-KQo. That's UTG. You want to modify it, play around it, expand it, be my guest, but that's what I learned awhile ago and what folks I used to play with considered raising with UTG. Is that what I play, not exactly but I'm just putting it out there.
Now lets think about if they have those hands. You're wrecked if you have a middle pair going against a UTG pair. Lets go to the wonderful
odds calculator at CardsChat and plug in the cards. You're a roughly a 80%/20% underdog against over pairs and with one of those over pair drawing hands like AJ or KQ you're a 55/45% favorite if you call.
So either way that's not the best situation to be in. So you're putting yourself in a situation where you're looking for a 2 outer that WON'T come like 90% of the time to start the hand (what is it 1:8 to catch a set? I've forgotten) and you still have folks to act after you enter that hand. You want to say let's go fishing for the set anyway or hopefully big cards don't hit the flop so you can guess that your middle pair is still best, I'll say ok but you've got not one opponent but 2 already in the pot with more to respond.
This is a big point. I just got through Preflop in the "30 days to Becoming a Better Poker Player" and I'm sure Katie goes over a pocket pair and
tells folks that you have to know what your response is going to before you even call or act with that hand like a rehearsal and the next step after that I believe is going to be what are you going to do on the flop. I can tell you that 99.9% of folks are going with a set!!! lol
So before you even enter that pot you have to realize you're going all in if you hit !!! And if you're sitting there thinking if I can get to 27th then my
bankroll will go up like some crazy percentage then you better be prepared to go all in and hope your hand holds.
They check the flop, you bet half pot, they check raise you 3x+ and that's a big warning sign. So let's go back to that range. Its AA, KK, QQ or JJ maybe AJs because all of the other hands miss the boards and with the J on the board that rules out the lesser pairs and just doesn't add up to the betting story unless they're a aggressive player so 5 hands left and you're got them crushed 80/20% of the time and the other 20% against that JJ hand, you're toast. And the only way I see a donk play is because they have you covered.
The other thing is if they check raise you 3x like that and you still call then that's a BIG Warning sign either you don't have a clue what you're doing or you've got a set and they still don't slow down. You can't try and bluff that pot unless the original bettor is a aggressive donk, they have something and its not AK or some drawing hand. So your play tells them exactly what you have and a call from middle position with just a min raise with a pair makes total sense and that board has a board for a set so it makes sense. SO THEY KNOW WHAT YOU HAVE if they're paying attention.
But either way once you go the flop, I don't see anyone telling you to fold that hand. Its going to be an over pair or a donk play where they're trying for some low percentage straight or something. So you're the favorite and someone will tell you if you run that hand 1 trillion times over and over you're going to be profitable, so go with it.
The only thing that might irritate you if that you left so much money on the table giving up your what 50BBs? and I'll guess that was a final table standing at that time or close to it. So if that payout would have really bumped up your bankroll then that might have been another reason to play more cautiously. Yeah and I can see the "if you're not playing for 1st then you're playing all wrong" stuff and I get it but folks gotta go by what works for them and not blindly follow a mantra. I don't know this person's situation or their bankroll but if a 18th place bumps up their bankroll big time then go for the stupid 18th place!! I'm not advocating playing scared but with antes this large, you can pick spots to steal especially if the table is tight and never risk your life.
So, think about playing middle pairs, rehearing your hands before you even enter and think about the outcome and I'm not talking about "I hit the set im good to go", no, think about your position in the tourn and what you're risking. Lets say you hit the set but the flop comes 2 suited cards and the original bettor shoves on you with that draw, are you comfortable leaving if they hit it? You should know the answer before you even click the call button is my point.
Other stuff would be is it better to risk your tourn life or will the table allow you to take the blinds down without risking your tourn life HERE and THERE. If you fold preflop and the board shows you could have hit the set then would that tilt you? Something else to think about. But again, the only way out of this hand I see was with your preflop play, there's no way out once you hit the flop, perhaps with the check raise? Most folks aren't going to fold that hand on that flop and with good reason though.
