$0.25 NLHE MTT: profitalbe river game

[horizon12]

$0.25 SNG: Profitalbe river game

poker stars $0.23+$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 3 players

BTN: 26.1 BB (VPIP: 22.54, PFR: 19.12, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, hands: 73)
SB: 35.45 BB (VPIP: 30.95, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)

Hero (BB): t30570 M = 29.11
BTN: t15658 M = 14.91
SB: t21272 M = 20.26

Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is BB with T♣ T♦
1 fold, SB raises to t1320, Hero calls t720

Flop: (t2790) 4♠ K♣ 3♠ (2 players)
SB bets t1500, Hero calls t1500

Turn: (t5790) Q♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t3000, SB calls t3000

River: (t11790) 5♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t24700 all in

Will the profitable shove river against LAG villain ?

 

[warturtle7]

This is a good spot because he doesn't wanna bust before the shorter stack but i don't know if it will be a profitable shove...
Do you think your opponent can fold a king? But also if the had a king I don't see him slowing down on the turn...

 

[RamdeeBen]

It's a big mistake flat calling here pre flop, we're 3 handed vs a LAG who opens BvB for 30bb effective. You want to 3B and hope he 4B's so we can 5B jam.

River seems bad too, what's your thought process? I mean, what are you trying to rep? It's clear imo from your 2.5 pot sizing you almost never have spades here. It seems you're turning your hand into a bluff when we likely have the best hand, his Kx probably bet turn, as do his draws. When he x/c the turn he probably has some weak Qx hand or a missed draw. All you achieve by shoving the river is getting his to fold those missed draws or some Qx 55-99 and almost never a K. I'd be very suspicious if I was villain and see you take this line and 2.5x pot river and probably would call with Qx here as there's no value hands you take this line with, just missed draws or some worse hand which you think doesn't have show down value here. It just looks like a bluff here.

Is it profitable? Not sure how when the very few times he's slow playing here he just snap calls and the vast majority of the time he has a worse hand than ours or missed draws he folds. I think betting turn is fine, to be honest though I don't see much value in betting river unless we bet really small and hope to target 55-99 but just don't see that happening very much. I'd probably just check back river unless we can get some thin value from those worse hands. There's really no merit into turning our hand into a bluff here, we probably have the best hand and only realistic hands we get to fold are bad weak Qx hands.

 

[Arjonius]

What's profitable is playing the hand properly in the first place. 3bet pre- in position, jam if he 4bets, and play the hand in position with initiative if he calls.