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robwhufc
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
I posted on another thread i'd lost 3 SnG's when I had 7 chances to win when all in (was between 68% and 92% favourite in the 7 - 2 of them over 90%).
This is from number 8 - i'd won the first match of a 4 player $10 H2H, this was for $40 (much needed after the last 3 games). I'd totally dominated until then - he hopelessly overbet when he hit a hand, and called pretty much everything;
pokerstars Game #5412997136: Tournament #27322011, $10.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round II, Level I (20/40) - 2006/06/30 - 16:31:01 (ET)
Table '27322011 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: TangoCP (1980 in chips)
Seat 2: robwhufc (4020 in chips)
TangoCP: posts small blind 20
robwhufc: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to robwhufc [Tc 8c]
TangoCP: calls 20
robwhufc: checks
*** FLOP *** [9d 7c 3c]
robwhufc: checks
TangoCP: bets 80
robwhufc: calls 80
*** TURN *** [9d 7c 3c] [2c]
robwhufc: checks
TangoCP: bets 920
robwhufc: raises 2980 to 3900 and is all-in
TangoCP: calls 940 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [9d 7c 3c 2c] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
robwhufc: shows [Tc 8c] (a flush, Ten high)
TangoCP: shows [9h 7h] (a full house, Nines full of Sevens)
TangoCP collected 3960 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3960 | Rake 0
Board [9d 7c 3c 2c 9c]
Seat 1: TangoCP (button) (small blind) showed [9h 7h] and won (3960) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
Seat 2: robwhufc (big blind) showed [Tc 8c] and lost with a flush, Ten high
90% favourite.
using conservative estimates of 60% for the 5 beats i didn't run through, and 90% for the 3 i did, odds of losing all 8 are 97,500/1 - the actual odds i'm sure will be higher still. This isn't the first time this has happened on Stars either!
Has anyone else noticed a "bounce back" bias on H2H games? - more than one opponent has mentioned it to me when i've done it - i see it really much too often to be a blip.
Grumble over - Friday night games on Stars only from now on!
This is from number 8 - i'd won the first match of a 4 player $10 H2H, this was for $40 (much needed after the last 3 games). I'd totally dominated until then - he hopelessly overbet when he hit a hand, and called pretty much everything;
pokerstars Game #5412997136: Tournament #27322011, $10.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round II, Level I (20/40) - 2006/06/30 - 16:31:01 (ET)
Table '27322011 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: TangoCP (1980 in chips)
Seat 2: robwhufc (4020 in chips)
TangoCP: posts small blind 20
robwhufc: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to robwhufc [Tc 8c]
TangoCP: calls 20
robwhufc: checks
*** FLOP *** [9d 7c 3c]
robwhufc: checks
TangoCP: bets 80
robwhufc: calls 80
*** TURN *** [9d 7c 3c] [2c]
robwhufc: checks
TangoCP: bets 920
robwhufc: raises 2980 to 3900 and is all-in
TangoCP: calls 940 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [9d 7c 3c 2c] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
robwhufc: shows [Tc 8c] (a flush, Ten high)
TangoCP: shows [9h 7h] (a full house, Nines full of Sevens)
TangoCP collected 3960 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3960 | Rake 0
Board [9d 7c 3c 2c 9c]
Seat 1: TangoCP (button) (small blind) showed [9h 7h] and won (3960) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
Seat 2: robwhufc (big blind) showed [Tc 8c] and lost with a flush, Ten high
90% favourite.
using conservative estimates of 60% for the 5 beats i didn't run through, and 90% for the 3 i did, odds of losing all 8 are 97,500/1 - the actual odds i'm sure will be higher still. This isn't the first time this has happened on Stars either!
Has anyone else noticed a "bounce back" bias on H2H games? - more than one opponent has mentioned it to me when i've done it - i see it really much too often to be a blip.
Grumble over - Friday night games on Stars only from now on!