Help! Is this much variance conceivable?

blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
I know there's variance in poker, but I've never seen a "bad luck streak" last for this long before.

Playing single-table (full table) SnGs in my online career, I've basically been a career 50% ITM player (counting after my preliminary month or so where I was learning and didn't really know quite what I was doing).

I played roughly 500 9 player SnGs, mostly $20, at Absolute Poker, consistently right at 50% ITM and consistently at about a 35% ROI.

Then I went to party poker where the one-tables have 10 players... I played just over 200 games almost all at the $20 level and actually managed to improve to 52% ITM. I don't know exactly what my ROI was there; I'd estimate it was about 30%.

They shut down to Americans, so I moved to Full Tilt. Starting with my first 50 games, thing went as usual; I kept track and I was right around 50% ITM, even after a rough start, with around my usual 30% ROI. I momentarily moved to $50 SnGs once my b-roll got big enough, and I suddenly became unrealistically bombarded with bad beats. Believe me when I say the "skill" at these levels was not the problem; I was able to trap so many over-aggressive players and I got my money in in great shape time and time again. The difference was that I couldn't seem to win from ahead, win a coinflip, catch a hand at all. 15 games of this crap and I said to hell with it and went back to my normal levels ($20 and $30). But since then it's like a switch was hit when I moved up! I can honestly say that this is not due to tilt; I'm getting my money in way ahead the huge majority of times and playing my usual style. When I'm not getting it in ahead, I'm running into monsters with my big hands (just now, within 4 hands I ran into QQ with AKs, lost the flip, ran into AA with KK, lost that, and shortstacked now, ran into QQ with AJs and lost that).

Thus, in the past 100 games or so, my ITM% has been about 25%! My ROI has been around 3-5%, I'd venture; the overall ROI has dropped from 30% to about 13%!

I know 100 games is a small sample, but even over individual 100 game spans, I've never ONCE had an ITM% below ~45% or an ROI below 25%, let alone REMOTELY CLOSE to these numbers! I'm taking a statistics course in college right now, and I know that even small samples can be statistically significant if the deviations are drastic enough.

This is, pardon my French, just absolutely too ****in' bizarre. I know there's variance in poker, I know! I've had cold streaks before! But when I compare these numbers to what has held true to me at every poker site, consistently, through the balance of the ups and downs, it just doesn't make sense! Does it make sense to you?

Sorry for the very long post; feel free to ignore.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
All I can say is: take a break. I can't tell you whether or not it's actually the cards (possibly FT???) giving you this streak, or if you are tilting progressively more (which sounds like it might be the case, but not the sole reason for your streak), but a break never hurt. It'll take your mind off the game, and give you a fresh start when you decide to come back. Even if it's for a week, it'll definitely help.

How long has this been going on? I've been reading your bad beat posts, and it can't seem more than a month...remember that people (see Negreanu) go on multi-month bad streaks. It happens.

You say that you're getting your money in with the best hand etc, but regardless I can't see a streak like this going on without your play deteriorating, if even slightly...it sounds to me like a break's in order. Don't know what else to say; I know you're a competent player (with 35% ROI over that much time, you have to be) and it just sounds like a bad streak...
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Thanks for the reply Chuck. Oh I'm doing more than taking a break; I'm quitting SnGs. I'm going to focus completely on cash games. I should have mentioned originally while this terrible SnG streak has been going on, I've been profitable in my first week or so of NL cash games; if anything NL cash games are way more likely to blow up in your face if you're tilting, right? I mean, I would think so, anyway. Of course the difference is there's rarely all-in pre-flop as are inevitable in SnGs, so I can react to my opponent and even if I got an unlucky flop, I can often (of course not always) get away from the hand. In SnGs I have almost no choice but to call these late-stage all-ins with my QQ+ or push the issue myself and lose to lower pairs making sets/flushes over and over again!

All I can say is I honestly believe I haven't been tilting and that I'm playing well. Are there times where I question a move and think I should have done something differently? Of course; but there have always been those times where I make mistakes. If anything, I'm making fewer mistakes now than I ever was at AP or Party.

But I think this is my farewell to SnGs. Full Tilt has ruined them for me, but at least it's directed me, finally, towards ring games, where post-flop play is rewarded, and not almost completely avoided. I just wanted some closure and to see if anyone had any input on what seems too weird to be true.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
As a semi-comical sidenote: I've played about 15 SnGs since the Cardschat "scavenger hunt" started; I figured I would inevitably get one of the feats on the list which was "win an all-in race". Believe it or not, in fifteen SnGs, I have not won a coinflip and thus do not have a screenshot of the occurence. Consider the average amount of times you'll be in a race for all yours, or for all of another player's stack (especially when you consider all the times a shortstack is pretty much going to have to push and you easily have odds to call) over the course of 15 SnGs and realize how nuts that is.
 
Marklar

Marklar

Rock Star
Ive been having the same luck on Fulltilt I was on a winning streak in cash games and STTs then I just played SnGs only and made about $500 in a week playing the $20 and $30 buyins. Then suddenly I couldnt do anything right. I got QQ and just maybe 100 behind the chip leader and I go all-in and he calls with AK for all his chips! Out on the bubble, I guess i could have either called the 3x raise and saw flop without risking more, but it didnt stop there. I would flop top 2 pair and against a set more than once. I'm shortstacked I have been running dry and I got AQ diamonds. This guy who's been raises preflop on the button stealing blinds (understandably) raises and i go all-in and it's only like 600 more for him so he calls with his 10 7 (darn you daniel negreanu!) and flops a pair of 10s.

Another one. First hand and I'm under the gun with KK so I raise it 3.5x. Guy on my right re-raises me so I'm like unbelievable first hand AA vs KK? But I push all-in and he calls me with... AK! Ace on the turn.

It's back to cash games.
 
Top