Pop Quiz of the day! What does he have and call or not?

mervin88 · Aug 25, 2023

even though he's doing this with a Q most of the time im still not risking 259bb for 18bb pot with just over pair no draw

just a fold for me

StealTheButton · Aug 26, 2023

Andyreas said:
Hey guys,

I experienced something funny and I wanted to share it with you:
This game is a satellite for a $109 MTT, where you can qualify via some all-in or fold satellites quite cheap and this way sometimes you end up with several 100 BBs.

Some people obviously do not have the patience to play properly this deep and often go All-in on boards with SPR >> 10.

This player has been doing it 3 times already. (With around 30ish hands played.)

I get the Kings in BB, he raises to 3 BBs, I 3-bet to 9 BBs and he calls.

Flop comes
4c9hQc and he jams on me and has me covered. See here:
View attachment 341029

Question:
To call or not to call (please vote) and write in the comments what you think he has.
Note: I know that by real poker rules, this is a fold due to SPR and overpair only but since he's not doing it the first time, he can't have the true nuts every time, IMHO.

I called and will post the solution once a few people have voted/ commented

Nobody wants to be all in this deep with only a pair of Kings and I would lean towards fold. However, given what we know about the player I would consider a call. He may have 10 J, Ax clubs, or AQ.

DanielNeg · Aug 26, 2023

Andyreas said:
Yes, you can be right but still get punished.

And another spoiler:

Was curious and looked the tournament results up:
It's still running but he busted only a few places later - surprise!

You shouldn’t be surprised because he got busted player like this are pain in the neck they beat 1,2 players due to luck and think they can do this every-time.
He should have got busted when you have kings but the luck was not in your favor however if you play a good poker in a long run you are definitely gonna win.
Just don’t loose your temper.
I know you know this very well although it’s just a reminder..
Anyway best of luck for your upcoming games @Andyreas !!

Ace of Spad3s · Aug 26, 2023

mervin88 said:
even though he's doing this with a Q most of the time im still not risking 259bb for 18bb pot with just over pair no draw

just a fold for me

You are not risking 259BB for 18BB. You are risking it for 277BB in the pot as villain is already chipped in.

But yeah. I voted call due to the structure and the read on the player. But have had bad experience with such calls in cashgames versus such type of players so had some doubts. After reading the topic, I changed my mind and agree that a fold would be best here to wait for a better spot for villain to pay you off. He's going to do it more often, just wait for the nuts.

Magical · Aug 30, 2023

I'd be snap calling.
Maybe through lack of judgement but to call the 3 bet, you'd be assuming KQs or AQ. Q's a possibility but if they have them, fairplay, Open ended J10, a maybe? But in all instances bar Q's, you're ahead and with logic of them playing hyper-aggressive, you'd have to assume top pair or chasing and if they've got it... go-fish.

Luvepoker · Aug 30, 2023

With the stack size you have here I do wonder how close we are to the prize. If close, I can fold here if I believe i have the seat won. If I don't I hate to but so much in the pot but with the kings and a guy like this, I call every time and pray it holds.

Ugh sick end there Andreas

mattiebumpo · Aug 30, 2023

I think he has Q9

Poker Orifice · Aug 30, 2023

BetterThanAvgButNotByMuch said:
Board is nasty with straight and flush draws and you're both over 200+ BBs (right?) which is still a lot in a hyper.

Doesn't make sense to inflate the pot against a bingo player like that with that board. Play the structure and not the cards.

It doesn't matter if they get lucky with a set of 4s, Q9 or a donk two pair like 49 because that example is all about board recognition where they're probably going to be live even if you have an over pair and you're 200+BBs deep.

That type of player will give you opportunity all day long but you need the right board to double up off them. Don't 3x them, out play their chart cards and bingo plays.

Id play the structure and not the cards.

You can call and see if another nasty cards comes but you're making the game 10 times harder because it doesn't make sense to keep going with that board because like I said, that player even in a hyper that deep, will keep putting out bets giving you all the opportunity you need to take them out or someone else will take them out or cripple them.

I just would look for another spot, you're too deep even in a hyper.

Did you actually read his post? ie. how is he going to 'calll and see if another nasty card comes'... it's calling it all off, or not.

Vs. this type of player, this is a super easy call, all day long. He's NEVER doing this with a hand that is ahead of you.. EVER! (& he's already done it prior)

robbieb · Nov 8, 2023

The smart play is probably to fold assuming the player has a set. But that’s a tough hand to let go.

Anna Brito · Nov 8, 2023

Did he make a trick or does he have AA

I think he made a trick

trips de 9

What did he do 999

skaterick · Nov 9, 2023

seems like just another horrible unlucky runner, runner . but sadly , after the 2pair and trip draws too you're only good about 77% of the time, according to 'cardplayerodds '.

Andyreas · Nov 9, 2023

robbieb said:
The smart play is probably to fold assuming the player has a set. But that’s a tough hand to let go.

Anna Brito said:
Did he make a trick or does he have AA

I think he made a trick

trips de 9

What did he do 999

skaterick said:
seems like just another horrible unlucky runner, runner . but sadly , after the 2pair and trip draws too you're only good about 77% of the time, according to 'cardplayerodds '.

Thanks all!

For those who haven't found the spoiler with his hand and runout, see here: