Guaranteed Prize Tournaments

[Ron112355]

How do the sites do it, they gamble that they will exceed the guaranteed prize pool and it seems almost every time they are correct in their predictions.
Do they use a computer to do it or do they have some high-IQ math genius to make their predictions?
I think it is probably a lot easier for them now since almost all tournaments have multiple re-entry that are full of maniacs who will enter multiple times.
But still, this is something that I think would be hard to predict.
Would like to have your thoughts on this or am I the only person who finds this a thing that makes me go hmmmmm

 

[Miyagi not miyaji]

Usually they are correct in their prediction, but sometimes they do make mistakes.

After pokerstars lost 1. 2M in overlay, the sunday million price droped 50%

PokerStars Misses Sunday Million Guarantee, Creating $1.2M Overlay

The 12th anniversary of PokerStars’ Sunday Million caused a stir recently after it fell short of its $10 million guarantee by a significant margin.

www.cardschat.com

 

[Ron112355]

Usually they are correct in their prediction, but sometimes they do make mistakes.

After Pokerstars lost 1. 2M in overlay, the sunday million price droped 50%

PokerStars Misses Sunday Million Guarantee, Creating $1.2M Overlay

The 12th anniversary of PokerStars’ Sunday Million caused a stir recently after it fell short of its $10 million guarantee by a significant margin.

www.cardschat.com

Wow first I heard of that, someone messed up really bad there

 

[Claudiunm]

Just look at the history of that tournament. If a tournament always exceeds 1k in buyins it is reasonable for this to be the guaranteed amount. It is logical that sometimes the guaranteed value will not be reached. But if this becomes a frequent occurrence, they simply adjust the guaranteed value to within the average expectation.

 

[MishkaZL]

How do the sites do it, they gamble that they will exceed the guaranteed prize pool and it seems almost every time they are correct in their predictions.
Do they use a computer to do it or do they have some high-IQ math genius to make their predictions?
I think it is probably a lot easier for them now since almost all tournaments have multiple re-entry that are full of maniacs who will enter multiple times.
But still, this is something that I think would be hard to predict.
Would like to have your thoughts on this or am I the only person who finds this a thing that makes me go hmmmmm

Tournaments have been held for many years. During this time, they worked out statistics and simply have an understanding of the approximate number of participants, I think there is nothing complicated in this. For example, when you travel by bus in the morning, there will be twice as many people in it than at lunchtime

 

[goaldriversv]

Prob a combination of computer programming with data scientist that get paid a lot to do predictive modeling. It’s a very advanced but a simpler version of how sports books are so right on the money with spreads as the season goes on. Incredible predictive modeling

 

[Funtast]

Hey Ron,
have you ever wondered how the betting sites get their betting quotes they way that they always make money?
That is a freaking complicated job to do.
I think with the tournament player statistics of the last four weeks even a trainee can formulate guaranteed pricepool tournaments. The only risc that can hardly be foreseen is if a competitor strikes your neck with some better events around yours. In germany for example you can´t play at multiple providers at the same time. It´s regulated by a database from the state. So if GG for example has better events around the Sunday Million, no german player will play the Sunday Million.
Greets

 

[Fosterbio]

maybe it's selective memory, but the 888 often has an overlay

 

[Ron112355]

Hey Ron,
have you ever wondered how the betting sites get their betting quotes they way that they always make money?
That is a freaking complicated job to do.
I think with the tournament player statistics of the last four weeks even a trainee can formulate guaranteed pricepool tournaments. The only risc that can hardly be foreseen is if a competitor strikes your neck with some better events around yours. In germany for example you can´t play at multiple providers at the same time. It´s regulated by a database from the state. So if GG for example has better events around the Sunday Million, no german player will play the Sunday Million.
Greets

Wow I didn't know that, I thought it was bad here in Ontario being ring fenced now but at least we can play where and when we like as long as it is against people from our province.

 

[Ron112355]

maybe it's selective memory, but the 888 often has an overlay

Closed my account there after we were ring-fenced, there was not enough traffic and I never really liked the software anyway.