Veeeeeery interesting....

D

dimon

Guest
Here is Lou Krieger's simplified method to quickly figure the "odds of making your hand" at a live table, and I quote:

"An easy method involves multiplying your outs by two, then adding two to that sum. The result is a rough percentage of the chance that you’ll make your hand. Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn. You have nine outs. Nine times 2 equal 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20. That’s pretty close to the 19.6 percent chance you’d come up with if you worked out the answer mathematically."

Now Im thinking, shouldn't there be consideration factored into this equation for other players holding some of your "out" cards. The above example states you have 9 outs. What if 3 of those "out" cards are other players hole cards? Well now you only have 6 "out" cards instead of 9. So 6 x 2 + 2 is only a 14% chance to make your hand not 18. Doesn't that make a difference in all of this?

quint
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
No.

Unless you have very strong reasons to believe that you know what someone is holding, you'd do best to just presume that the hole cards are evenly distributed. So if you have a flush draw (nine outs) it's of course likely that some of your outs are occupied by your opponents' holecards, but it's also likely that the distribution is such that they also have cards not of your suit, and more of them.

For example: You are on an open-ended straight draw, and you're playing 6-handed. 17 cards are dealt in total: 3 on the board, 2 to you, and 2 to each of your five opponents. If you need either a 7 or a queen to make your straight, you're of course hoping that none of your opponents have a queen or a seven. But even if one of them has a queen, this doesn't make it less likely for you to catch your straight than what Lou Krieger says:

You then have only seven cards to catch your straight, but out of 52-17 = 35 cards = 0.2 = 20%. Compare that to figuring that you have 8 cards to hit your straight, but count the rest of the deck: 8/47 (there are 47 cards you haven't seen) = 0.17 = 17%. The probability only changes (significantly) if there's a stronger than normal risk that your opponent holds your key cards.


Hope that makes sense.

Edit: Welly's word is shorter than mine. :(
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

Legend
I've tried that method for awhile and its not a bad quick method.
Daniel N had mentioned once that he also uses that method.
 
Welly

Welly

Guest
Edit: Welly's word is shorter than mine. :(

;)

I'll add a bit more constructive to mine :-

Unknown cards are always unknown cards. It doesnt matter to the odds whether these cards are sat at the bottom of the deck, or the middle of the deck, or were dealt to other people as hole cards (because in essence they could be anywhere)

Now, dont get me started on stud ;)
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
It doesn't make a difference at all unless, as FP said, there's a substantially higher risk of a player holding your 'out' cards.

Say you have 10 outs after the flop.

By the standard method of calculating your chance to hit, you get 10/47 = 0.213 = 21.3% chance of hitting on the turn. This is accounting for every card remaining less all cards that are known to you (i.e. the board cards and your hole cards).

If you're in the hand with two other players, they have 4 cards between them. You could subtract their cards and the probability they have any of your outs from the equation, but you'd still get exactly the same result, as while you are removing a certain percentage chance by taking out the chance they have your outs, you are adding the same percentage back by reducing the number of cards left for you to hit your 'outs' from.

I believe I phrased this all really badly, but meh!
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
I hate trying to explain this, specifically because it's so difficult not to make it difficult. The concept is easy, but hard to explain. :(
Yep, and look how long it took you just to agree with Chris. ;)
 
titans4ever

titans4ever

Legend
I just like to live in ignorant bliss. I know it works, I don't have to know why to use it to my advantage.

The bigger trick is to what to count as outs. Are your drawing cards also over cards etc. That is the bigger question. You can count outs all day long but if you are counting the wrong number does it really matter.
 
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