You donk, you bet a draw!!!

[Dreams of Tragedy]

another way that i learn .....small ball it... learn the why of small ball

 

[StormRaven]

Sorry I missed this thread before Sly. Very Nicely done! You are a poker writer in the making!

 

[NYRebirth]

great topic had me click thread in seconds lol..

Also i always bet draws because sometimes u can confuse the other play into thinki gn you are betting them off of a draw

 

[dead spade]

This is written for newer players who either play all draws passively or are frustrated by agg players who play draws aggressively. The general thinking is, I think, that we don't have a made hand, so why would we put money in the pot/be aggressive?

The below example is from PLO - but it illustrates an idea that I thought'd be useful for newer NLHE players. Villain (BTN) flops the nut straight with no redraws - in other words, Villain has the best possible hand on the flop, but cannot improve to a better hand. Hero flops a 17 card wrap straight draw (i.e., any 6, 7, T, J, or Q makes Hero a straight) and a backdoor flush draw (i.e., runner/runner clubs) making Hero, on the flop without a made hand, a 62/38 favorite over Villain. Villain raises Hero's flop bet, and Hero happilly pushes to get all in. Of course, 38% of the time that Hero does this, he's going to lose $23.65, but 62% of the time Hero's going to win the pot against the flopped nuts - pretty nice, right?

The key ideas here are that we're getting it in without a made hand purely based on the possibility of hitting one of our outs, and that we're actually a heavy favorite to win the pot against a hand that is the nuts on the flop.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/452693
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $59.40
Hero (MP): $26.90
CO: $18.00
BTN: $23.65
SB: $14.65
BB: $31.35

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with Jd Qc 7c Td
UTG calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.50) 5c 8h 9d (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.90, CO folds, BTN raises to $4.15, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero raises to $13.90, BTN raises to $23.40 all in, Hero calls $9.50

Turn: ($48.30) Ts (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($48.30) 8c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $48.30
Hero shows Jd Qc 7c Td (a straight, Eight to Queen)
BTN mucks 7s 4s 6s 2c
Hero wins $45.90
(Rake: $2.40)


It's rare in NLHE, though, to get those massive combo draws. Here's a big combo draw - we've got 8c7c on a 9c6c2d flop, giving us a straight flush draw. We're 54.44% favorites over AA on this flop, 51% favorites against two pair hands, and only a 42% dog to 99 and a 43% dog to AcKc, the two worst hands for us to be up against. Change the flop to 9c6d2c, giving us a combo draw (a flush draw and a straight draw, but not a straight flush draw). We're now a 53.9% favorite over AA and a 48% dog to two pair hands, and now are a 40% dog to a set and a 35% dog to AcKc. The edges are slimmer, and we're up against hands where we can be a serious dog in the combo draw scenario.

In NLHE, though, we've also got fold equity - FE isn't as much of a factor in PLO, but it's a huge potential factor in NLHE. By betting, you're giving Villain the opportunity to fold his weaker made hands (say, second pair or TPMK) because of the threat that you'll continue betting on the next street (this is called leverage). And if you hit your draw by the river, you can go to showdown having "sucked out" on the guy who called down w second pair.

Then there's the pot equity - this is the chance your hand will be good at showdown against Villain's range of hands relative to the amount of money you have to keep putting into the pot to get to showdown (i.e., above, the % chance your hand has of winning relative to the amount of money in the pot). This is why playing suited and/or connected cards in position is so important - you can continue being aggressive when the turn adds outs to your hand.

As an example, let's say you 3bet from the button w Ac3c and the cutoff calls you. Flop is Tc6d2h, which misses you, but you cbet anyhow cuz it probably missed the cutoff, and he calls. Turn is a 4c - our hand wasn't worth anything other than a cbet a minute ago, but now we've got 12 outs to a probable nut hand - 9 for the flush and the other 3 fives - and the three remaining A's may make our hand. We can continue being aggressive and represent a big hand here - if he folds cuz of the heat, we're happy, and if he calls, we've got a decent number of outs, so we're still happy. He'll be a little ticked off when a 5 hits the river and yell at us in chat "You donk!", but we'll be happy taking his money.

Adding your fold equity and pot equity, and using leverage to increase fold equity, allows you to be more aggressive and to take more frequent pots.

If you haven't already, try plugging in various drawing hands into Pokerstove and checking how they do against various made hands (i.e., top pair, sets, two pair, etc.) - you may be surprised by the amount of equity you can have, and the amount of overall equity you have when you add fold equity and pot equity together.

Remember, aggression is good!

gl and see you on the felt.

i dont know where to start this was alot of information at one time, i get the idea of the post but so many times for me online i dont make the flush or the strait betting on draws couses me nothing but pain, is there certain times you play this move or do you play it based appon character of the table, however this move works alot for me at house game i play at weekly and recently i have cashed there last four times good post you made me think about plays i make than you

 

[thepokerkid123]

i dont know where to start this was alot of information at one time, i get the idea of the post but so many times for me online i dont make the flush or the strait betting on draws couses me nothing but pain, is there certain times you play this move or do you play it based appon character of the table, however this move works alot for me at house game i play at weekly and recently i have cashed there last four times good post you made me think about plays i make than you

It doesn't matter if you make the draw.
Forget about that part.

At the time of making the bet do you have enough pot odds (say 36% for FD on the flop), fold equity (is always a guesstimate but you usally have a lot), and implied odds to make playing the hand more proffitable than either calling to your draw and having very little implied odds and 0 fold equity or just cutting your losses and folding.

It doesn't matter if you make the draw, don't even think about that.


The short answer to drawing is to bet, you've almost always got enough fold equity and implied odds to make it proffitable and equally likely is that betting in whatever situation you're in is going to be more +EV than calling.
The only real exceptions that I'm aware of are:
You're likely up against the nuts and have 0 fold equity but huge implied odds, then just call.
Your opponent has a high cbet %, in which case I think just calling and semi-bluffing the turn after they check is best (and calling if they fire a 2nd barrel).
Other than that, bet your draws relentlessly.

 

[Weregoat]

Very good post, Sly.

I've always been a fan of betting draws - especially disguised draws - and I'd never really known why.

Sure, you got FE, sure, you disguise the strength of your hand instead of check/calling until you're made -

In one of Harrington's books on cash games he discusses you should play small pots with small hands, and big pots with big hands - ideally this will save you money on hands like TpTk vs Sets, 2pr, and draws that have connected (with the concept of implied odds and deep stack poker even pot-sized bets won't shake some villains, and ussually a pot-size bet tends to be too much, almost screaming for a call, even with hands like 2nd pr -

But what I'm getting at is if you make a str8 or a flush, you want the pot to be big, because it's a big hand. Now if you come into a 2-bet pot (let's say 3 way, @4BBs pre) there's 12 BBs in the pot. You're in position post-flop. Other two players check, and you are OESFD, and you check behind. When you do get made (which happens what, some 30% of the time per street), and you start betting), you have much more FE because you checked. Had you fired say . . . an 8 BB bet on the flop, Villain 1 called with an overpair and villain 2 called with TpTk, then you get made, now there's 36 BBs in the pot and continued betting could be disguised as barrelling.

This concept has worked for me a lot in live games (especially when I'm running good), and with that kind of money out there another bet and the pot's existing size - players tend to wanna stay in and take down a monster - as opposed to a smaller hand where "meh, I'm only in it for 4 BBs, and he could have the str8" -

Just have to be careful about barrelling when you miss.

Another thing to point out is when you bet in position on the flop, you're still in position on the turn, so if it's checked to you and you've missed, you can check for free and get another 30% to win the hand as an added bonus to your flop bet.

Or you can bet the turn, using your "leverage" and the threat of a big river bet, to add to FE.

Overall, very nice post Sly.

You put a very important part of poker into very easy to read and understand words.

 

[Theblueduce]

Great stuff and thanks for taking the time and effort to enlighten me. This is why I love this site.

 

[NYRebirth]

just curious what does OESFD mean?

 

[cjatud2012]

just curious what does OESFD mean?

Open-ended straight-flush draw.

 

[PattyR]

not sure how the hell i missed this thread as you made it in the very beginning of January. Very very well written and as pc said...pure gold. thanks for taking the time to write it out and a make the thread. much appreciated from another fellow cash game player.

 

[moeraj]

The great thing about betting(at least pot size) with your good draws is this. You have two ways to take down this pot. First way is to get opponents to fold. On occasion when you get called down you will still win around 30% of the time by hitting your draw. When you semi-bluff a draw and after flop and hit your out on the turn and check it , there are not many players at micro levels who can give you credit for the big semi-bluff and you might even stack that player when you hit.

 

[fletchdad]

As usual good post, and great tips.
"Remember, aggression is good!"
One of my biggest leaks, I think. I am using aggression more profitably, but still run scared too much when challenged. I also need to become more adept as to when and where to be aggressive, and your post is a help there. I almost always run from strait draws if someone is aggressive themselves, I need to get better at knowing when to push back.
I have been thanking a lot of posters lately for their help and input, and have not mentioned you, who has posted many helpful replies to my questions, so here a late much much deserved TY!!!