Value bet or over bet ?

[weezy1312]

hello everyone , i would like to have an answer in general about a situation i face many times and play in a different way everytime but would like to know what is the correct way to do it.
so you have the nuts at the flop agaisnt a flush draw ( in general "doesnt matter how the ennemy plays" ) , the right thing to do is a value bet or an overbet to make the ennemy fold and not chase his flush ? id say an overbet is the right move but would like over opinions.

 

[ph_il]

Why would you want your opponent to fold their draw instead of you playing your hand for value?

 

[RocwX]

Ideally, the size of the bet should be exactly enough for the other player to be indifferent between chasing the flush and dropping the hand. That's the correct mathematical approach. After the flop, a flush draw has 35% chance of hitting on the turn or on the river. If you go all in and the other player has to pay less than 35% of the final pot (including his stack) to call, it's porfitable for them to do it. If they have to pay exactly 35%, they are indifferent. Just so you have an idea, if they had 33% chance of hitting their outs, the optimal stack size to go all in would be the size of the pot (because their call would represent 33% of the final pot)

It's a little bit harder to figure this out if you're not going all in on the flop because the other player has to predict if you're betting again on the turn or not. From the flop to the turn and from the turn to the river, they have about 19% chance of hitting the flush on each street, so they should be paying no more than that to see those cards, but other things come to play like implied odds. If you bet 1/2 pot on both streets, they would be paying 25% of the pot on each street, which is a bad price for them. Any time they pay more for a draw than they should, the profit is yours in the long run.

In conclusion, you should put them in hard positions, facing tough decisions. If you bet slightly above what they should be calling, they will not always correctly evaluate their situation and will make the wrong calls. If they end up getting their flush, you got unlucky, but it will be worse for them in the long run because they are overpaying for that draw. You don't have to largely overbet to make them fold because then you're the one not being payed enough for your equity.

 

[fernando21]

In that case I only overbet if I'm facing more than one player.
The right thing is (as they indicated above) make a well calculated value bet.

 

[rigor mortis]

You say that you have the nuts. The amount you should bet is the amount that will encourage your opponent(s) into the potband maximise your win

 

[weezy1312]

Why would you want your opponent to fold their draw instead of you playing your hand for value?

because if he hits his flush i would loose the hand.

 

[weezy1312]

Ideally, the size of the bet should be exactly enough for the other player to be indifferent between chasing the flush and dropping the hand. That's the correct mathematical approach. After the flop, a flush draw has 35% chance of hitting on the turn or on the river. If you go all in and the other player has to pay less than 35% of the final pot (including his stack) to call, it's porfitable for them to do it. If they have to pay exactly 35%, they are indifferent. Just so you have an idea, if they had 33% chance of hitting their outs, the optimal stack size to go all in would be the size of the pot (because their call would represent 33% of the final pot)

It's a little bit harder to figure this out if you're not going all in on the flop because the other player has to predict if you're betting again on the turn or not. From the flop to the turn and from the turn to the river, they have about 19% chance of hitting the flush on each street, so they should be paying no more than that to see those cards, but other things come to play like implied odds. If you bet 1/2 pot on both streets, they would be paying 25% of the pot on each street, which is a bad price for them. Any time they pay more for a draw than they should, the profit is yours in the long run.

In conclusion, you should put them in hard positions, facing tough decisions. If you bet slightly above what they should be calling, they will not always correctly evaluate their situation and will make the wrong calls. If they end up getting their flush, you got unlucky, but it will be worse for them in the long run because they are overpaying for that draw. You don't have to largely overbet to make them fold because then you're the one not being payed enough for your equity.

the answer i was looking for thanks <3

 

[weezy1312]

You say that you have the nuts. The amount you should bet is the amount that will encourage your opponent(s) into the potband maximise your win

the nuts on the flop , id loose to a flush.

 

[johnwat2]

If you would lose the hand if the villain hits his flush, then you can't have the nuts.
If that's the case then I would size your bets to make them have to think about calling.
Of course chip stack size for both you and your opponent comes into play. :icon_puke

 

[ph_il]

because if he hits his flush i would loose the hand.

That is true, but you should be looking to earn max value here.

Look at this way, lets there is 20BBs in the pot and you both have 95BBs behind. You have the nut straight and current best hand possible. Are you going to be content just picking up a 20BB pot when you force the fold or do you want to try and get the rest of their stack?

Let's look at your EV. You're a ~65/35 favorite. Assume we can get opponent to stack off. If you win, that's +215 BB pot. If you lose, that's - 95.

EV = 215(.65) - 95(.35)
EV = ~140-~33
EV = +107

So, even at the risk of losing the hand ~3-4 times, you earn +107BBs on average in this situation.

 

[grumblbrumbl]

It all depends on the villain. If the villain tends to put a lot and often, then there will be difficult to implement their own hands. If the villain is playing passively, you can try to put pressure on him

 

[This Fish Chums]

I prefer to try to push them off their draw. A pot in the stack is worth two on the table. But if you overbet and they do call then you have increased the size of your potential winnings that much more, provided they don't river you.

 

[sheltowee420]

I never hit the flush draw when I pay big to try, so (against me) you should go all-in and make me fold.

 

[Poker_Mike]

That is true, but you should be looking to earn max value here.

Look at this way, lets there is 20BBs in the pot and you both have 95BBs behind. You have the nut straight and current best hand possible. Are you going to be content just picking up a 20BB pot when you force the fold or do you want to try and get the rest of their stack?

Let's look at your EV. You're a ~65/35 favorite. Assume we can get opponent to stack off. If you win, that's +215 BB pot. If you lose, that's - 95.

EV = 215(.65) - 95(.35)
EV = ~140-~33
EV = +107

So, even at the risk of losing the hand ~3-4 times, you earn +107BBs on average in this situation.

Yup, yup! All day long !

Good luck !

 

[Haze of Spade]

hello everyone , i would like to have an answer in general about a situation i face many times and play in a different way everytime but would like to know what is the correct way to do it.
so you have the nuts at the flop agaisnt a flush draw ( in general "doesnt matter how the ennemy plays" ) , the right thing to do is a value bet or an overbet to make the ennemy fold and not chase his flush ? id say an overbet is the right move but would like over opinions.

how do you know they are drawing??
if you overbet such a flop you just make them fold all the hands that you dominate.
only situation i do this is when it's obvious that they have a draw and the pot is already big, like when they donk the flop, you raise, they call and check the turn.
if effective stacks are like 2x pot i just jam here and still get some calls lol

 

[TeUnit]

Your goal in poker is to make money, so when considering bet sizing - you should consider how often the specific villan will call and how much you will make. I dont think balancing is a big consideration at the low levels, however you dont want everyone to know that you only over shove for missed value or you only over shove as a bluff.

 

[Super_Gleb]

I think all in is top method.

 

[playinggameswithu]

Cash Game: Value bet the flop to get them more invested in. Keep value betting then quickly check the river if flushes misses giving villain opportunity to hang themselves.

MTT: If it is an important MTT value bet the flop. Check raise all in on turn if turn misses if you cant win a 4 to 1 in an MTT forget about winning the MTT. If the MTT is some BS freeroll then check raise all in on the flop. If the MTT is super important then play like cash game. Diffusing the flop is really critical as it cuts their draw % in half.

Overbetting is inferior to check raises and should be done really only to shut down the hand and is legitmate in MTTs if the pot is big enough but is super stupid in cash games (as long as you are BRM 60x buyins). The over bet will usually elicit a fold or a jam neither ideal.

 

[rikisrakis]

It depends entirely on the opponent and the hand. If you know you are against someone who will fish for a flush draw under any circumstances, then obviously you overbet to maximize EV. Any time you have the nuts, you're trying to get the most money in the pot possible without making your opponent fold.

 

[weezy1312]

thanks everyone i got the answers i needed to improve my game )