Running Hot!

[jaggafrig]

I find running hot doesn't mean you can play anything and win, never leave what has made you successful

 

[Queenlimp]

I agree playing a large amount of hands can have a favorable (or even adverse) effect.
As a general rule, I prefer to play less hands.


I'm unsure if the stats. make a lot of sense in terms of the outcome of these hands as it relates to the aggression of an opponent's judgment of someone playing many consecutive hands. (the person must have committed to the pot, in the event they hit any pair on the flop). I don't understand why I lose on a decent amount of hands in these instances. As they are often way behind with under pairs and low probability draws. (i.e., I hate losing to a weak players)


It is for this reason that I like to play fewer hands in hopes to actually get players to fold when I want them to, the hands they should fold to, which don't make sense to continue playing anyway. I like to minimize the risk. In the overwhelming majority of these showdowns, I would be collecting their chips; however we all know that underdogs win on occasions also. I like to think I'm more likely to win over a larger sample of hands against most matchups. (i.e., I hate losing to a weak players)

 

[Queenlimp]

I know it does not make sense to think that one hands can influence another with a RNG.
However, I'm sure that in the short-term there are observations which appear to be so, for whatever reason or no reason at all.


Would you not say that an accurately perceived trend may be profitable if acted upon?


I just got booted in a $60 tourney today from a guy who appeared to have this gut feeling (having previously won the 2 prior hands): 18k versus 9k; I made a 4-bet with Kings, he called with J4 suited and won. (or maybe I should of just wen all in pre-flop, but I was trying to get some value; opening 1200; 4bet: 3600)

 

[sibird]

There are times when my hole cards run hot!!!
Like the potential to win over 70% in the short-run of hands, if played.
For the most part I've tried to stay away from this observation inducing me to play hands I normally do not play.


When you guys see this happen, do you just start jumping in the pot with any two hole cards?
Do you have a loose call approach or just keep playing as you normally would?

Playing with a rhythm of running "hot" implies that you should put your common sense in comma. All mathematical calculations should be thrown out of the window. And that is something very difficult for me to do.
Running "hot" may have some benefits but staying away from logic and reasoning leads to think that we are playing luck game more than the skilled game
I vote for a balance between them. I prefer to have some control on the game instead of to be controlled completely by that running "hot".

 

[Queenlimp]

Playing with a rhythm of running "hot" implies that you should put your common sense in comma. All mathematical calculations should be thrown out of the window. And that is something very difficult for me to do.
Running "hot" may have some benefits but staying away from logic and reasoning leads to think that we are playing luck game more than the skilled game
I vote for a balance between them. I prefer to have some control on the game instead of to be controlled completely by that running "hot".

I started this thread after experiencing a "running hot" sequence of hands in which I won about 12 out of 15 hands.
I was curious to know if people observed these occurrences and if some capitalized on it by a change in their style of play.
This situation of "hot" I've seen develop about 12 times over a 3-4 month time span. Also, some with much smaller durations such as 4-5 hands.
I was able to benefit from such a run about 3 times. In the other instances I just watched.
On one run, I was limited in time and was just throwing my chips away in a freeroll.
Strange enough I won about 7 all-in's in a row and went on to win about 25 out of 30 hands. I just keep going all in and kept winning. When it came to an end, the effect of going all-in caused everyone to just do the same thing, and another player started doing the same thing and picked up where I left off.


I also got hot once at the PLOMAHA cash table and won 11 hands in a row. When I say won, I was simply unbeatable.

 

[kdawg71]

I have found out as a generality no matter how many times in a row your hands would have won had you played them that it is not in your best interest to go with the flow and play any old hand. The main reason is that it has a tendency to give you a false perception on how to really play the game and probably will come back to bite you.

 

[GordyPoker]

What’s running hot? I only ever get lukewarm at best

 

[playinggameswithu]

Could you go into a little more detail?

Gaming is a form of no win gambling. slots, ultimate hold'em table games, roulette etc. point is the game is calculable hence controllable hence realistically some folks will turn it into a statistical scam where you cannot win money. Poker is not calculable although a revenue based rake takes a lot of you. As players game their mind wanders from this fact and they are guaranteed to lose the longer they play their mind becomes delusional and they begin to notice patterns that are there and that are not there. If you have a burst of good luck temporary it is just random. Try not to see patterns that are not there.

Players often notice patterns of swings especially where they do quite well....but they fail to realize the broader pattern of losing because they do not understand the overall structure they are in. I hear a lot of stories of players running it up or etc.....only to ALWAYS lose. Point is know the structure you are in and avoid seeing patterns that are not there.

 

[PeedroZack]

this is the better thing that can happens, and you need to enjoy this moment to get the most chips as you can!!!!!

 

[8bod8]

I was running hot one time; like 5 good starting hands in a row. Nobody believed me.
Although I won 4 hands in a row, my aces were cracked by K 4 in the big blind against a x3.5 pre-flop raise.
Maybe I should of showed my hands, but that does not matter; most people feel you cannot win two big pots in a row.
That second win could be big, but hard to know what type of hand your opponent has.

Showing your cards may make things worse.....

 

[duson]

I tend to loosen my ranges slightly if I'm running well and my stack is big enough to cover any mistakes but I'd still be skeptical of thinking its gonna continue for long enough to win a tourney.

 

[duson]

If I'm running well I might open my range a little to bully other players but only enough if my stack can cover any mistakes. Just gotta remember it's not gonna keep going well so I do my best to keep it from getting to my head.

 

[This Fish Chums]

Play LAG at your own risk.

WARNING: There is a major gambler's fallacy in poker. The idea that "running hot" alters the possibility of winning the next hand. The odds of you winning 1 hand are absolutely NOT affected by the winning of past hands.
So, how come opening up your range and playing more hands helps you win more when you are "running hot"? Well, there are a number of logical reasons:

1. If you were playing tight and suddenly you are playing a lot of hands, you are confusing the other players at the table. You have a tight image so they are simply assuming you have good hands when you don't.
2. You're using aggression to it's full benefit. Aggression can be key to taking down lots of pots by bullying the table.
3. You're more confident. Confidence alters how you play and people will subconsciously pick up on that. When you are confident in a specific hand you will bet differently and your style of acting will change as opposed to when you are doubting yourself or your hand. People pick up on confidence and you will get more folds that way.

As a "professional" fish, I can tell you this system can work at times. A couple weeks ago I sat down with $100 at the casino and left with $1200 playing extremely LAGy. But those days are few and very far between. I've spent a year and a half developing a LAG style that "works" about 10-20% of the time. And by "works" I don't necessarily mean I win that %, I mean I go up in chips pretty high before I lose them all that %.

The main Achilles Heels to this are TAG players, Traps, and Great Bluffers. I tell you this from experience. if someone is good at any of those things, this system will come crashing down on you. I'm still trying to learn how to identify these situation and get out of or stay in hands appropriately. Maybe in another half yer to a year I'll improve my game enough to close out on tourneys when I get in the top 10 midway and lose before the bubble.

Based on my experience, playing TAG is not only a fun kids game, but also the best approach regardless of how "hot" you think you are running.