re: Poker & Rationale for Rule of 4
Hi nondescript! I hope I can shed some light on your conundrum!
So, I think firstly you are just misunderstanding the rule so let me highlight where I think you're going wrong.
Your main mistake is that you are deducting the opponents cards from your total number of cards. The idea of the rule is that you can see two cards in your hand and 3 cards on the flop which leaves a total of 47 unseen cards to account for. Since we have no way of knowing exactly what our opponent holds, we still have to leave their cards (whatever they may be) into our calculation. Let me give an example.
if you are holding 9,10 of hearts and the flop comes 4 6 J with two hearts. you know that any heart will complete your flush.
so of the 5 cards we can actually see, 4 of them are hearts, leaving another 9 hearts left on the table. Again, since there's no way of knowing whether our opponent holds any of them, we have to give them all an equal chance of coming on the turn or river. So our calculation is as follows
number of outs (9) X4 (because the rule of 4 and 2 states we times our outs by 4 on the flop) = 36.
We then take this number (36) and make it a percentage which would be 36% of course.
Now this doesn't mean that you have a 36% chance of making a flush on the turn. It simply means you have a 36% chance of making your flush by the river.
The reason for it being 4 and 2 is because on the flop you get to see 2 more cards before the showdown whereas on the turn you only get to see 1 more card before showdown therefore halving the chance that a heart will appear by the river.
To conclude, you are only looking to employ the rule of 4 and 2 when you need ONE more card to make your made hand. you will not be able to use the rule to accurately predict the likelihood of hitting two consecutive outs to make a hand. You are also only including cards that you can SEE into this equation. (flop you will have 5 cards visible, turn will have 6 cards visible).
Try and work out these examples in a reply and I can give feedback.
what is the percentage you will make your hand by the river in the following scenarios;
Open ended straight draw on flop =
Flush draw on the turn =
Set (three of a kind) on the flop =
Gutshot straight draw on the flop =
Flush + open ended straight draw on the flop =
Hope this helps!
Nicebrew.
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