probabilities

[JCgrind]

right im going to ask you a silly few questions here so bear with me........why does it matter how much money the villian has?.....say he has $75 and raises to $7 and we call, hoping to hit the set, then he would prob raise to $16?.. (we hit the set) .obv we would just call it and trap him.....is that right...trap?.....so on the river he would bet say $35 and we would reraise to $50 because thats all he would have right enough, but its still a nice pot.......now everything you say jchoop im taking as gospel because compared to me you are a pro, but i would just like to know why he would need to have 20bb at the start of the hand.....is it a rule of thumb that you follow these rules or do you look at each situation seperately depending on your starting hand probability......im sorry im coming across dense lol

i just reread this and i think i understand your scenario a bit better. you used raise where i highlighted instead of bet again, and it confused the whole hand for me.

i think your scenario is you raise to $3, villain reraises to $7, you call. so pot on the flop is between $14-17 depending on whether villain and/or ourselves were in the blinds.
what id do on the flop here when i hit my set is entirely dependent on the flop texture, as well as our position, and our villains postflop tendencies.

if i think my opponent has a legit hand, ill raise. if i dont think he does, then i wont. its comes down to being able to pick whether your opponent has a hand or not, which is why you need stats. if i think he has an overpair/TPTK type hands, ie hands that i can stack, i try to get as much money in as possible without raising him- as this conceals the strength of our hand. the only time i will raise in position is when the board is threatening, say something like 678 with two hearts, where any heart, 9, T or 5 is going to kill a lot of our action. out of position, i try to avoid check/raising for value. microstakes players are shit at bluffing, and the check/raising range for most players is massively skewed to value. ie they wont check raise as a bluff ever. therefore, checkraises are viewed as being super strong hands the vast majority of the time. you checkraise most opponents on a flop, watch them flat and cautiously check down top pair top kick the next two streets.
point of the story, i much prefer donking with my sets for value out of position, and save checkraising for like 75% bluffs and 25% value hands

 

[BlueNowhere]

haha jdawgs, im lost on basic probabilities....just cannot grasp the math.......the chance of getting two aces is 220/1.....so to get that you divide?...times?...52/4 51/3....god knows .....is it algebra?........this is what happens when you dont stick in at school kids

Few different ways you can do it. 4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221 or 220/1. You can also say 6 combos of AA, total combos of hands is 52c2 (1326) 6/1326 = 1/221. So no, it isn't algebra lol.

 

[AlfieAA]

i just reread this and i think i understand your scenario a bit better. you used raise where i highlighted instead of bet again, and it confused the whole hand for me.

i think your scenario is you raise to $3, villain reraises to $7, you call. so pot on the flop is between $14-17 depending on whether villain and/or ourselves were in the blinds.
what id do on the flop here when i hit my set is entirely dependent on the flop texture, as well as our position, and our villains postflop tendencies.

if i think my opponent has a legit hand, ill raise. if i dont think he does, then i wont. its comes down to being able to pick whether your opponent has a hand or not, which is why you need stats. if i think he has an overpair/TPTK type hands, ie hands that i can stack, i try to get as much money in as possible without raising him- as this conceals the strength of our hand. the only time i will raise in position is when the board is threatening, say something like 678 with two hearts, where any heart, 9, T or 5 is going to kill a lot of our action. out of position, i try to avoid check/raising for value. microstakes players are shit at bluffing, and the check/raising range for most players is massively skewed to value. ie they wont check raise as a bluff ever. therefore, checkraises are viewed as being super strong hands the vast majority of the time. you checkraise most opponents on a flop, watch them flat and cautiously check down top pair top kick the next two streets.
point of the story, i much prefer donking with my sets for value out of position, and save checkraising for like 75% bluffs and 25% value hands

yeah if i flop a set im hoping he hit a big pair or two pair....if its a dry flop with no overcards i usually just check and hope to see an ace or a king on the turn...if not then i will put in pot sized raise, so he thinks im bluffing and trying to take the hand away from him,,,,i think that if i only min raise then he might think im trapping etc......when you say donking, do you mean you will over bet a pot discounting proper implied odds?.....note, i havent studied implied odds yet but im assuming that implied odds are relevent post flop

 

[AlfieAA]

Few different ways you can do it. 4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221 or 220/1. You can also say 6 combos of AA, total combos of hands is 52c2 (1326) 6/1326 = 1/221. So no, it isn't algebra lol.

haha thanks man......you say 4/53 * 3/51......what does the * mean?.....i wasnt joking when i say i am incredibly stupid when it comes to maths......and what does 52c2 mean....is it 52 cards 2?...thanks

 

[JCgrind]

donking/donkbetting refers to when you lead into the preflop raiser.

so say you raise pre on the button and the big blind calls. flop comes down and instead of checking to the preflop raiser, he bets. this is a donkbet.

and ye, implied odds are more relevant postflop than preflop imo. in theory, youll be getting the correct implied odds to call with a TON of hands preflop, many more than you can call with profitably

 

[JCgrind]

* in a formula means multiply

 

[AlfieAA]

donking/donkbetting refers to when you lead into the preflop raiser.

so say you raise pre on the button and the big blind calls. flop comes down and instead of checking to the preflop raiser, he bets. this is a donkbet.

and ye, implied odds are more relevant postflop than preflop imo. in theory, youll be getting the correct implied odds to call with a TON of hands preflop, many more than you can call with profitably

ok cool thanks, i take it the term donking/donkbet comes from being out of position and re raising the guy who raised in position......right got it....very interesting is poker so many intricacies and different terms...very interesting

 

[AlfieAA]

* in a formula means multiply

OMG why not just do 'X' lol

 

[BlueNowhere]

OMG why not just do 'X' lol

Because I use x for unknowns lol.
52c2 is just how to calculate the amonut of ways to choose 2 cards from 52.

 

[JCgrind]

OMG why not just do 'X' lol

i know it was rhetorical, but im going to answer anyway...

ALGEBRA!

you cant use 'x' as both the letter and for multiplication lolol

 

[AlfieAA]

i know more about algeria than i do about algebra......sweet fa.....haha cheers guys

 

[JOEBOB69]

read this link
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/joebobs-1000-post-9-so-201882/

As to set mining,here are some guide lines.
1) As jchoop has already mentioned effective stack sizes should be at least 20 times more than the amount you have to call.Reason is you only flop a set ~1 out of 9 times.So if villain opens 3xbb for 9 times we have already put 24bb's in the pot dead before we hit a set.An although the goal of set mining is to get stacks in by the turn (we hope the flop) it don't always work that way.So the times we do hit and get it in we want the most money possible behind.

2)If your goal was to set mine and you didn't hit it on the flop FOLD.DO NOT TRY TO TURN YOUR PROFITABLE PLAY INTO A SPEW BLUFF.Because the villains range crushes yours,or you shouldn't be set mining to start with.Which lets me to....

3) Villain you should try to set mine against.~10/9,or W/E the more tight/aggressive the player the better.Perfect situation would be 7/6 raising 3x from UTG,or UTG+1 ( the earlier the position the tighter there range).So a 7/6 raising from UTG makes his range prob look like AQs+,AKo,JJ+.And when these players flop a over pair they don't like to fold,so we should try to get it in.

4) Position for starting out do not try to set mine OOP.......Try to set mine the nits early position opener from the CO/BTN.But watch out for the blinds and make sure there not a lagg squeeze happy moron.

5) Slow play don't do it.There is a reason we set mine to start with that's because we believe he never folds his strong hands.So just raise and hope to get it in only any board when we flop the set.

 

[AlfieAA]

read this link
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/joebobs-1000-post-9-so-201882/

As to set mining,here are some guide lines.
1) As jchoop has already mentioned effective stack sizes should be at least 20 times more than the amount you have to call.Reason is you only flop a set ~1 out of 9 times.So if villain opens 3xbb for 9 times we have already put 24bb's in the pot dead before we hit a set.An although the goal of set mining is to get stacks in by the turn (we hope the flop) it don't always work that way.So the times we do hit and get it in we want the most money possible behind.

2)If your goal was to set mine and you didn't hit it on the flop FOLD.DO NOT TRY TO TURN YOUR PROFITABLE PLAY INTO A SPEW BLUFF.Because the villains range crushes yours,or you shouldn't be set mining to start with.Which lets me to....

3) Villain you should try to set mine against.~10/9,or W/E the more tight/aggressive the player the better.Perfect situation would be 7/6 raising 3x from UTG,or UTG+1 ( the earlier the position the tighter there range).So a 7/6 raising from UTG makes his range prob look like AQs+,AKo,JJ+.And when these players flop a over pair they don't like to fold,so we should try to get it in.

4) Position for starting out do not try to set mine OOP.......Try to set mine the nits early position opener from the CO/BTN.But watch out for the blinds and make sure there not a lagg squeeze happy moron.

5) Slow play don't do it.There is a reason we set mine to start with that's because we believe he never folds his strong hands.So just raise and hope to get it in only any board when we flop the set.

nice post, thanks for taking the time to explain things....i shall study this thread religiously

 

[duggs]

if you plan on being remotely serious about poker then yes.

as long as you do pokerstove calculations now and again when youre reviewing your week or whatever, youll start to just know these things as they sink in. a really simple example would be you have JJ and a guy 3bs you with a 3b stat of 2%, obv you can just fold (assuming you dont have the odds to set mine)

expected value is the long term amount of profit you can expect to make with any decision, example youre playing 100NL and get AA in pre vs KK for 100BBs ea, or a $200 pot. youre an ~80% favourite, so your EV would be 80% of the pot ie $160, as you win $100 8/10 times and lose $100 2/10 times

all of this

 

[Panamajoe]

that will be the next book on my wishlist thanks...im currently reading phil gordons little green book. have you read that?.....good luck to you too mate

No I haven't al, might put that on my "wishlist", thanks.

 

[Bowman]

Very interesting reading here, thanks for all the info.
I will definitely check out that book you are talking about as well.