Hero TsTd UTG raised to 3 BB. Everyone fold except SB who called. Flop comes 8 3 T all hearts. SB bets pot. How to proceed?
depends a lot on stack sizes, but unless stacks are ridiculously deep, i'm just going to jam it in here.Hero TsTd UTG raised to 3 BB. Everyone fold except SB who called. Flop comes 8 3 T all hearts. SB bets pot. How to proceed?
i think this is a situation where both arguments could be valid, it just depends on what one is willing to do. i can totally see and understand someone taking a more cautious route because a flush is very much in villain's value range, especially in the micros because nobody folds their draws.I have to disagree with those, who say, its very unlikely, Villain has a flush. A suited hand will flop a flush 1% of the time, but this does not mean, that Villain only has a flush 1% of the time, when the flop is monotone, and he comes out for a big bet. In fact flushes make up most of his value range and even more so, when we have top set, because then we block top pair and also the only reasonable two pair, which is T8. So this is not a spot, where "LOL we have the nuts". In fact our hand is close to being a combination of a bluff catcher and a draw. Not saying we should fold, but the idea, we are almost never behind, is simply wrong.
the problem i have with just calling here is what do i on the turn if another heart hits?
I have to disagree with those, who say, its very unlikely, Villain has a flush. A suited hand will flop a flush 1% of the time, but this does not mean, that Villain only has a flush 1% of the time, when the flop is monotone, and he comes out for a big bet. In fact flushes make up most of his value range and even more so, when we have top set, because then we block top pair and also the only reasonable two pair, which is T8. So this is not a spot, where "LOL we have the nuts". In fact our hand is close to being a combination of a bluff catcher and a draw. Not saying we should fold, but the idea, we are almost never behind, is simply wrong.
i think this is a situation where both arguments could be valid, it just depends on what one is willing to do. i can totally see and understand someone taking a more cautious route because a flush is very much in villain's value range, especially in the micros because nobody folds their draws.
however, and this my personal view and i'm not saying this is the correct answer, i think if i always put villain on a made flush here, i'm just giving them way too much credit for a made hand. yes, a made flush bets out on the flop but then so does flush draws, potentially oesd w/ no flush draw, weaker sets, over pairs, and 2 pair are all hands that might bet out to deny equity and try and take the pot, and they're hands that are willing to call off a big raise or jam as well.
the problem i have with just calling here is what do i on the turn if another heart hits? it kills my action because now the turn goes check/check and the river goes check/check or villain bets and i either have to fold or make a crying call because the 4th heart on the turn is the perfect card to bet and represent, regardless if villain has a flush or not. not only that, but the if the turn is a heart, i'm losing a ton of value from hands that would've called a big raise/jam in this spot. if villain has 88, 33 they're never folding to jam but if the turn is a heart, well now i'm very unlikely to take their stack. and if i bet on the river, it has to a thin value bet because if i'm raised, i have to let it go. so, i basically let villain off easily in a spot where i could have potentially gotten stacks in on the flop.
so, i want avoid these spots when i have a monster of a hand on a wet board like this. by jamming (which is the best option if i stacks are short enough to get called by), then i can recognize my full equity in the hand and not put myself into tough decision spots where i might give up a ton of value.
now, i cant say villain never has a made flush here and if they do, oh well. that's just how it is sometimes, but i'm willing to go broke my monster hands if i need to. plus, i still have some equity hit as well, so it's not like all is lost. i'm still hitting on the turn or river ~30% of the time.
This is villain dependent and stack depth dependent in my view. I would think that this is rarely a bluff so I would put villain on set of 8s, set of 3s, 83, 97 or J9 one heart, or a flush. If the villain is not a crazy agg player (even if they are agg thats fine, just as long as you wouldnt define them crazy) then I think without any stack depth info I would lean to jamming (again, as long as we are not ridiculously deep). I say this because I dont think villain would do this with the nuts. They wouldnt or shouldnt want us to fold if they flopped the world. I read the bet as they are scared a little, have a very strong hand and want to protect it. There is some merit to calling and keeping in their worse hands but I feel they are strong enough where they would not fold here most of the time. They are not folding 33 or 88 here if we jam. Yes those cards we would want to keep in the hand but they also wont fold so we can get our stack in here. 97 or J9 with one heart is the hand that I would not want to just call a raise with. I would rather make the villain call an all in with that and I believe they would. We are a slight favorite in that spot so we should want to get it in with that. It is also worth some value that even if villain has a flush we still would have 10 boat outs on the river. I can see the merit for calling to keep the worse hands still in the hand but I like shoving more since the hands I think villain has will call anyway and I discount the flush the most out of their potential holdings (yet I should add small flushes like 75 hearts are possible but villain may not call 3x UTG raise with that holding)
If another heart comes, then all his bluffs just got there, and he is never betting any worse hand than yours. So you have around 20% equity, if he bet, and then you just make a math based decision, like you would with a straight or flush draw. If pot odds and implied odds are good enough, you call, if not you fold, and its no big deal. I think, where a lot of people go wrong here, is, that they feel, they MUST win the hand, because they flopped top set. But top set is a very marginal hand, if there is a 1-liner to a flush, and it can easily be folded on the river and also on the turn, if the price to continue is to poor.