As most people have said, it really depends. Some of the things that I consider are:
- SPR (stack to pot ratio). Is the pot big compared to the remaining stacks? If it is, my opponent(s) are less likely to fold and it will be easier to get the rest of the money in.
- SPR (again) Is the pot very small compared to remaining stacks? If it is, I am inclined to bet/raise. If I check/call the flop and then raise later in the hand, my strength is super-obvious. It is going to take 4-5 bets to get the money in, which means I can't expect my opponent to do it on their own. A bet/raise on the flop is not nearly as threatening as one on the turn or river. It is the middle SPRs that lean me towards checking. Those SPRs of 4-7 have plenty of money to get in, but it doesn't take a big raise to get them in, and too much aggression on the flop makes it obvious that my opponent's whole stack is at risk.
- How often have I been c-betting or betting the flop if the raiser failed to c-bet? If I have been very actively trying to pick up pots on the flop, a bet doesn't mean that I have anything. If I haven't been betting many flops, and my opponents are aggressive, then I might just not bet. I will let them do it. If my opponents are passive, I have to bet. They won't do it for me.
- What do my opponents think of me? What do they think I might have? Do I have any notes on the players? Is my hand face up? The answers to these questions help me determine how they would react to a bet.
- How likely is it that my opponent has a hand that can call a bet?
- How likely are the nuts to change on a later street? Can I get the money in before the nuts change? If the nuts are very likely to change, and there will still be a lot of money left after they change, I am less likely to put in a big bet. If they are likely to change but I can get almost all the money in, then I am more likely to put in that bet. This is more of a concern in a game like Omaha.
There's probably more. But that is just some of it. Here's an example hand. It's one where things are close, because it *should* be obvious that I have the nuts and it is hard for my opponents to have anything to call with. Both of which usually mean slow-play.
$0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hero (CO): 360.1 BB
BTN: 159.4 BB (VPIP: 48.31, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 5.08, Hands: 623)
SB: 88.5 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 195.7 BB (VPIP: 85.82, PFR: 56.74, 3Bet Preflop: 22.92, Hands: 142)
UTG: 196.2 BB (VPIP: 38.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has
fold,
Hero raises to 3.5 BB,
BTN raises to 12 BB,
fold, BB calls 11 BB,
Hero raises to 48 BB,
BTN calls 36 BB, BB calls 36 BB
Flop: (144.5 BB, 3 players)
BB checks,
Hero ???
Let's think about the above points and how they relate to this hand.
- SPR = Very low: 0.81 to 1.08 -- There is basically one pot-sized bet left. This makes me lean towards betting.
- I have been c-betting only 45% of the time at this table. This is not super-aggressive, especially for omaha. So, it's neutral. I could go either way.
- I have notes on the button from other sessions. Including "is tired of me pushing junk, expect to be raised or check-raised on flops when betting against this player". So, we have a history where he's caught me being over-aggressive on flops. This makes me more inclined to bet, because he won't be a believer. The BB, I have less history with. But, they're aggressive and like to bet. They don't fold to a lot of c-bets, but this flop is not likely to have anything they can call. My hand is also pretty face-up. I 4-bet very deep. That's almost always AAxx. The BTN knows that I can get out of line for 3-bets, but does he know the difference for 4-bets and 3-bets?
- This flop is horrible for my opponents. There's no draws. There's an Ace (which means I *should* have a set). Realistically, they should not be able to call a bet on this flop.
- The nuts aren't too likely to change on the turn. They could change by the river. I can get the money in before the nuts change. This means checking is probably fine.
All of that, and I don't really have a strong case for either decision. But, overall, I think a bet is slightly better in this case. The pot is big, so even winning just what is out there is not a bad result. My notes on the BTN suggest that he expects me to be too aggressive. He might get it in his head to play sheriff. I can't just bet my weak hands to him, I would get slaughtered. Having two opponents means that when the nuts do change, it will be more likely that I am beat. Getting one or both of them to fold is better for me.
Hero bets 137.3 BB, BTN calls 111.4 BB and is all-in, fold
So, I bet full pot. No need to be subtle here. Any bet is the same as an all-in when the SPR is this low. The BTN decides to look me up. Guess he did think I could be betting worse. Glad I had those notes on him. The BB folds, that was expected.