Help with equity

[BnaD]

So I'm trying to analyze a spot where I busted a tourney earlier. In the hand I get it in 99 vs AQo and at first I thought my play was the correct one, but when I plug my hand vs range of hands villain will call my jam with I am an underdog. Does this mean my play was bad? I'm unsure of how to factor fold equity in here. Is there some formula for taking hands that would 3bet but fold to a jam and apply it to the equity I have here? I'm really trying to improve. This is like the 10th tourney I have busted this week with under 20 people left but short of the final table and it's leading me to 2nd guess some of the plays I'm making. 3-4 table sit and goes are my bread and butter and fund all tourney buy-ins I make. So when I make it this far to not even make the final table...like I said I'm 2nd guessing. What other factors apply to equity here that I might overlook. I'm very new to using an equity calculator. Thanks in advance.

 

[forest_leaves]

Theres quite a lot going on that you cant just go by an equity calculator, I mainly play cash myself atm, but your stack size vs your opponents, and your relative stack size etc needs to be factored in when you go for a all-in in later stages of a tournament, I'd even fold pocket aces if I am going to be all in against the top chip leader when Im the 2nd chip leader etc...

You probably made a right call if you were short stack imo, read some books and watch some tournaments late stage to re evaluate your strategy I'd say

 

[kdawg71]

Realistically, with pocket nines, you are going to run into about 5 or 6 different scenarios. 1. Someone has a bigger pocket pair. 2. Someone has a smaller pocket pair. 3. Someone has two over cards. 4. Someone has an A x suited, where x is smaller than your 9's. 5. Someone has two lower suited connectors. or best case scenario, 6. They are playing total trash. In all reality you will probably be running into scenario 1,2, or 3. If I were in your shoes with the pocket 9's I wouldn't have a problem shoving all in with them depending on where the cash bubbles are. Pocket 9's to me are a solid preflop. There nothing wrong with them at all. You definitely want to have a good read on your opponents at the table before you make a play with them and it probably wouldn't hurt if the players at the table have a feel for your style of play letting them know that "Hey, this guy or gal, has a real hand and do I really feel like butting heads with you." It can be a tough call, but realistically, pocket 9's Vs. A Qo, you will come out ahead more than you will lose. Just not a lot more. I hope this has helped you out. Good luck!!!

 

[Unashamed88]

So I'm trying to analyze a spot where I busted a tourney earlier. In the hand I get it in 99 vs AQo and at first I thought my play was the correct one, but when I plug my hand vs range of hands villain will call my jam with I am an underdog. Does this mean my play was bad? I'm unsure of how to factor fold equity in here. Is there some formula for taking hands that would 3bet but fold to a jam and apply it to the equity I have here? I'm really trying to improve. This is like the 10th tourney I have busted this week with under 20 people left but short of the final table and it's leading me to 2nd guess some of the plays I'm making. 3-4 table sit and goes are my bread and butter and fund all tourney buy-ins I make. So when I make it this far to not even make the final table...like I said I'm 2nd guessing. What other factors apply to equity here that I might overlook. I'm very new to using an equity calculator. Thanks in advance.

Imho yes that late into the game it's not about stacking off and chasing coin flips. Unless you are short stacked ofcourse. It's time to do the best you can to make sure you are only shoving in profitable situations.

 

[maximmaxim]

it's hard to say what to do. nothing incomprehensible! how many chips? what positions?

Are the prizes great? if there are huge prizes and a big difference between them, I would even throw qq ....

 

[Luvepoker]

It depends is the honest answer. On the hand with the 99 did you push all in for 50BB or 12 BB. What kind of player was he? I Nit who only played aces and Kings or someone who thinks calling 20BB with 78o is fine.

To be honest, in most tournament you will play in when you are at the say final 2 tables you will be all shorted stacked with most players with 8-25 BB. If he raised it up and you shove 99 with say 14BB you did not make a mistake. If you had the AQ and shoved you would not have made a mistake either. If you called his 3 bet shove you would have to faster in what type of player he is and make the best judgment call you can but most likely you would have been correct calling with the 99's as well.

Don't let the short term results bother you. Just because you have lost with these hand lately don't mean so much and remember he had to improve to beat you. You just happen to be on the wrong side of variance at the moment. It happens to us all.

 

[Aces74]

With 99 in early position its an easy hand to go bust.
With 99 slow down and try to hit set on flop or if low flop over pair.
A guy with Aq deep may still call all in after flop with low board.
I was in scenario in 250k I had 99 early I limped. There was 2-3 guys raising with action.
The raise was not huge just let me know they had kq aj+.
Board came AQK so my 9s are no good always .Tens would still look bad turn was k river was 7 . Dude had KQ made full on turn .I lost a 1/4 of my stack just to fold o well.

 

[mara2259]

Your chances of winning are 54.6%. Standard raise 3BB, and then check fold if the flop is clearly not in the suit. If the board is dry, raise at least 2/3 of the pot.

 

[kelvin22]

Your chances of winning are 54.6%. Standard raise 3BB, and then check fold if the flop is clearly not in the suit. If the board is dry, raise at least 2/3 of the pot.

I agree. Every pocket pair is strong, as long as it meets it's triplet brother amongst the whole cards, or the villain(s) don't hit their... something. They require caution, analysis of stack, position, and opponent previous gameplay. I don't know if it's the game "making it happen", or pure bad luck, but most of the times, when KK is dealt to a player, the odds are very good that another player has QQ or even AA. And nowadays, "never fold" is the general creed. It happened to me so many times, that everything apart from AA, meaning pocket pairs TT+, i raise big pre-flop. If i get called, it's almost always a bozo with an ace blocker, or a higher/lower pair. I try to avoid allins if i don't hit the set, and try to be cautious in situations where i might be fighting someone with a higher pair, and the flop doesn't produce any card that is higher than my pair, because i could trap myself.

 

[seven_outs]

as the shortstack i would say it was the right play, since you have the pressure to gather up some chips. In order to win a MTT variance is a thing and you have to win at least some coin flips. Thats poker i would say..