Equity as a number on the river

NootNoot

NootNoot

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Hi all,

I've been watching some Youtube lately and one concept I came across was a coach/player talking about his estimated equity in a pot at the river before deciding whether to bet for value, bet as a bluff, and how much to bet if betting.

We all do something similar in a way, thinking whether or not we are strong, very strong, or if we can bet thin for value etc.

What I found interesting was that he was putting numbers on it. He was using hand reading to take his opponent's perceived pre-flop range then filter out certain holdings and combos based on how the hand had progressed so far before making his decision at the end.

He was also talking about how many bluffs an opponent might still have left after all this filtering if faced with a bet. He'd then use his observation of the player plus HUD stats and player pool tendencies to help him decide if a spot was likely being underbluffed or overbluffed in certain situations.

He was saying things I think I've got 60% equity here, or 80% equity in another spot. He had thresholds for when to bet for value and how much.

When faced with a bet it's much easier, just work out the pot odds to see how often you need to be good to call. We can all do that to a degree. It was the part where he was expressing things as a number before betting himself that I found most interesting.

Is this something we need to learn? Do you do it? Or is just sort of roughly thinking we're fairly strong, solidly strong, or very strong enough?

I know we can look at holdings and board textures to practice this kind of thing with tools like Flopzilla or even Pokerstove as a free option to produce numbers. I think you can do it in Equilabs too.

I'm only in the microstakes so I don't necessarily think it's too important for me yet. This player plays NL100 and NL200 zoom but I found it fascinating.

How many of you do this kind of thing and frame it in numbers rather than in broader terms? What sort of stakes do you play at if you do it?
 
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YLAN

YLAN

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Unless a blind bet, one decides the action on the river with the perception of how much equity is left after considering all data on the river. Can value it to be weak, good, or strong or even put a number after considering everything. If I feel equity is lower than 40% at the river then the only option is fold or bluff. :)
 
NootNoot

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Unless a blind bet, one decides the action on the river with the perception of how much equity is left after considering all data on the river. Can value it to be weak, good, or strong or even put a number after considering everything. If I feel equity is lower than 40% at the river then the only option is fold or bluff. :)

So you actually put a number in your head? That's great if you do!

This guy blew my mind as he was being precise at times, saying 59% or 74% and I was wondering how he could work that out in his head so quickly.

As a beginner my thinking is more like this:

- I think I'm dominated
- I think I'm mostly behind
- I think it's closer (lets' say 40-60%)
- I think I'm mostly ahead (thin bet for value)
- I think I'm very strong
- I've got the nuts!

Do you recommend I try to practice it and think of it in numbers instead?
 
YLAN

YLAN

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Howdy! Don't you think that is already like putting a number? Obviously try to consider all factors. Put in some equity numbers for yah. :)

10% - I think I'm dominated
28% - I think I'm mostly behind
36% - I think it's closer (lets' say 40-60%)
54% - I think I'm mostly ahead (thin bet for value)
72% - I think I'm very strong
100% - I've got the nuts!

You're on it bud & doing well! (y)
 
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LaNimmer

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I mainly play by my observations and gut feelings. Very unscientific really. I guess that's why I like freerolls and I am a purely recreational, low grade player. I know my place in the poker universe and I'm OK with it!
 
dannystanks

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Learning poker math is a must. I say this to every person seeking ways to not be so in the dark about making decisions.
 
Poker Orifice

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Hi all,

I've been watching some Youtube lately and one concept I came across was a coach/player talking about his estimated equity in a pot at the river before deciding whether to bet for value, bet as a bluff, and how much to bet if betting.

We all do something similar in a way, thinking whether or not we are strong, very strong, or if we can bet thin for value etc.

What I found interesting was that he was putting numbers on it. He was using hand reading to take his opponent's perceived pre-flop range then filter out certain holdings and combos based on how the hand had progressed so far before making his decision at the end.

He was also talking about how many bluffs an opponent might still have left after all this filtering if faced with a bet. He'd then use his observation of the player plus HUD stats and player pool tendencies to help him decide if a spot was likely being underbluffed or overbluffed in certain situations.

He was saying things I think I've got 60% equity here, or 80% equity in another spot. He had thresholds for when to bet for value and how much.

When faced with a bet it's much easier, just work out the pot odds to see how often you need to be good to call. We can all do that to a degree. It was the part where he was expressing things as a number before betting himself that I found most interesting.

Is this something we need to learn? Do you do it? Or is just sort of roughly thinking we're fairly strong, solidly strong, or very strong enough?

I know we can look at holdings and board textures to practice this kind of thing with tools like Flopzilla or even Pokerstove as a free option to produce numbers. I think you can do it in Equilabs too.

I'm only in the microstakes so I don't necessarily think it's too important for me yet. This player plays NL100 and NL200 zoom but I found it fascinating.

How many of you do this kind of thing and frame it in numbers rather than in broader terms? What sort of stakes do you play at if you do it?
Which player was it?

And no, I don't put a number on my hand vs. a perceived range on the river. (seems absurd tbh)
The thinking is different for me & comes intuitively over time.
 
NootNoot

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Which player was it?

And no, I don't put a number on my hand vs. a perceived range on the river. (seems absurd tbh)
The thinking is different for me & comes intuitively over time.

It was Pete Clarke on his Carrot Corner channel, he has a coaching site of the same name.

He doesn't always do it, but I noticed it a few times during his play. It also cropped up during a couple of series of videos he did when coaching players in NL25 or NL50.

There's an example starting at around 27:45 in this video, I'll try to make the video start at the right place:

Edit: Like I said, I do this in a rough way when facing a river bet, that's just pot odds and what percentage of the time we need to be good to make the call. Facing a pot-sized bet and needing 33% for example. Now I don't think in detail in situations like that, such as am I at 30% or 36% ? I just ask myself if I think I'm winning more often or less often than the 33%. We all do that.

What I hadn't seen before was people using equity expressed in numbers like that when making a river bet rather than calling one.
 
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