F Paulsson
euro love
Silver Level
You know, that's not a terrible idea. At first, I was entirely against it because I thought there was just no chance that it could be profitable, but...
There are 24 combos of aces that beat us: AK, AQ and AJ. And we split with AT (4 combos). All other hands are inconsequential because he either has us crushed (and will never fold) or he has a bluff (and we would have beaten him anyway).
If he always folds AT and AJ, never folds AK and folds AQ half the time, he calls 12 times and folds 14 times. EV depends on raise size, but he bets $34 into a $47 pot, and let's say that we make it $90. Then we're risking $90 to win $81, and we need to be successful 52% of the time, and his fold% will be just below 54%.
Edit: Scratch that. In this particular spot, the odds are actually against us, because in 4 of those times, we're not risking $90 to win $81, but risking $90 to win $40 (the times he has AT). Still - close! /edit.
So yeah, it's super thin. It depends sooo much on how likely he is to fold AJ, but... Let me put it this way, if we had A8s instead of ATs, and he's as likely to bet A9s on this river as he is AK, then check/raising the river is definitely EV (assuming he CAN fold top pair to a river check/raise).
Solid thinking, Taylor. I think too many people completely overlook these spots (and we were both guilty of it in the video).
B
bw07507
Legend
Silver Level
I'm just getting around to watching this now. First thing I noticed is at ~12:30 on the right table you open A4o into the SB and flop a gutshot. I also bet this flop and I like ch/raising the turn here. When he bets that small I just feel that theres almost no hands in his range strong enough to call a ch/r. You don't even have to really worry about what you're repping because hes not going to be thinking on that level. He's going to be thinking about his hand and whether he wants to call another $30-$40 on it. I take that line on the turn all the time vs regs and donks alike with all sorts of draws.
ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
from personal experience, anything under $50 for a 4bet generally gets way more action than something slightly higher. People seem to start calling with 78s and reshoving AJs and stuff. I could be wrong, honestly haven't experimented with anything too small.
I think check-raising that A4 is ok too, but most of the time he's got something like 77, a pair+ draw or a draw, none of which is folding to one raise. I think if we check-raise we have to follow up on a lot of rivers. Not sure if that line yields a higher EV than FP's.
I think check-raising that A4 is ok too, but most of the time he's got something like 77, a pair+ draw or a draw, none of which is folding to one raise. I think if we check-raise we have to follow up on a lot of rivers. Not sure if that line yields a higher EV than FP's.