Chipleader - variance-equity

killing_random

killing_random

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Assist me please in further elaboration of this https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tou...y-stage-already-itm-kinda-483373/#post6012689

The goal - highest efficiency abuse of all chipleader's advantages.
I have already touched on that here https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-poker-59/deepstack-strategy-actually-crap-481577/
And my output was:
The more chips you've got the more "unwavering" you become. When your stack become deep, you're not necessary meant to change your strategy. In fact, now each individual villian has less resources for his mind games or "force" (effective stack accounts for less % of yours) to disturb you from your optimal way of playing your hands. Multiway pot can still screw you up, unless you're have more chips than all of opponents combined.
So, unless you'll got an abnormous bad luck, you basically can't lose untill bubble if you're playing GTO. Being a chipleader is nice thing, it decreases both variance and villian's capability to pressure you.
But I don't think GTO covers its all.
As cheapleader you're have the extended set of exploits (I'd appreciate if someone remind me of them btw, just to be sure) and I think I discover(?) a new one.
Its capability to wield the effective stack variance. In short I called it variance-equity.
Basically variance is your ally now. You can push variance on purpose and it will eventually kicks out short stacked opponents for you and put their chips in your stack.

Here how it works:

You're the chipleader
Desktop Screenshot 20210412   23330486
And you do someting like dis

These two previous losses are innocuous since we return all our chips in one run.

Why it theoretically works:

Let's take as the basis a tight opponent against which our odds = 25%
Desktop Screenshot 20210413   17210783
With enought chips and normal neutral variance we can turn these 25% into 58% and even further, further and further (25%,44%,58%,68%,76%,82%,86%,90%,93%,94%....)
Desktop Screenshot 20210413   17253672
Calculator: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

That's it, and now I want you to help me to make a right conclusion from all of that. Something usefull.

But before posting make sure you'll make "quality post". Separate what you know is right from what you think is might be right. Science'n'stuff, you know... And more detailed, please.
 
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killing_random

killing_random

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These are examples of stack sizes to make my concept more transparent and easier to apply:


10bb | №1 - 20bb | №2 - 40bb | №3 - 80bb

100bb | №1 - 90bb | №2 - 70bb | №3 - 30bb



12.5bb | №1 - 25bb | №2 - 50bb | №3 - 100bb

187.5bb | №1 - 175bb | №2 - 150bb | №3 - 100bb
 
killing_random

killing_random

Rock Star
Joined
Mar 3, 2021
Total posts
351
123 ppl be like:

:icon_stud :icon_sile :burnout:
 
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