BLUFFS TA.07: Is someone trying to bluff you?
DISCLAIMER: I do not claim to know how to tell when someone is bluffing. I guess right about 60% of the time, which is still only about the guessing average of 50/50. Be very careful implementing this article as it may be completely wrong. But it sounds good in theory.
If you want to figure out whether or not someone is trying to bluff you, don’t even bother unless you have been watching them closely for at least 10+ plays (not individual hands, but hands they have actually played which can take numerous orbits to see). While observing this player or players, keep track of the following information to help determine if they are bluffing you. All of this information requires that you actually see their hands.
How do they play behind? Watch to see how they play when they are behind in the hand, but are still betting the hand. If they continue betting when they know they are probably behind (low or medium value hands) then you know they bluff.
How do they play ahead? Watch to see how they handle monster hands. Do they trap or do they go all-in? If they trap, then they probably aren’t bluffing when they only check or call the turn and then suddenly bet big on the river. If they go all-in on a monster hand, then they probably don’t have one when they just bet BBs or Pot bets.
How do they play when it's even? How do they play when there is an equally good chance that they are winning vs. losing? Things like them having a flush using the 9 where there is an equal number of cards below the flush as above it. Do they only check/call? If so, a huge bet may push them off a medium hand. Do they raise? If so,
odds are they are going to call any bet when there is a drawing hand on the board.
How do they play when they’re almost out of chips? If they are someone who plays all-in poker when they get low on chips then you can’t really bluff them, but if they go all-in you may be able to call more often. If they are someone who plays conservatively, just trying to survive, then you can steal a bunch of their chips by raising, but not by re-raising. As stated in a previous article, they are playing tight and bluffing them can be much more dangerous because they will probably have a made hand if they are betting.
How do they play when their opponent is almost out? Do they like to put pressure on regardless of what they’ve got? Do they try to trap when they have a made hand? When their opponent is almost out, or has considerably less chips, they will alter their play and you need to watch that in case you are in that situation with them.
DISCLAIMER AGAIN: I do not claim to know how to tell when someone is bluffing. I guess right about 60% of the time, which is still only about the guessing average of 50/50. Be very careful implementing this article as it may be completely wrong. But it sounds good in theory.