How to get through the bad period without giving up?
I see this question come up quite often and my first question is always how long is your bad period?
This is important because a lot of people quantify their bad run like they do the rest of their life; by days, weeks, months and years...but what does that really mean in terms of playing hours or tournaments? Are we talking one tournament? 10 tournaments? 100?
You've probably heard of the term variance, but do you understand what that means?
Variance is the deviation from the norm. Take the classic coin flip - maths says that after 100 flips it will land on heads 50 times and tails 50 times, but in reality, that very rarely happens. It will often be a few flips in favour of one side, sometimes massively so - try it for yourself. Whenever something happens more frequently than the mathematical probability, that is called variance.
Now take the classic AA vs KK situation, when you get it in heads up, preflop with Aces, you're an 81% favourite to win, but that also means that 1 in 5 times you're SUPPOSED to lose! A lot of the time, people forget this part of the equation.
This is short term variance and as a poker player you must embrace the variance or you will find yourself regularly frustrated and tilted.
In tournaments, especially large field tournaments, the variance is huge. That is because you don't just need your AA to hold against KK, but you also need your TT to hold against AKs, or your KQ to outdraw 44, over and over and over again. And that's just to run deep let alone win the tournament. Essentially to win a tournament, you need to run way above normal expectation. I listened to a podcast recently where the host was discussing variance and he explained that if a very good player with an ROI of 30% played
pokerstars Sunday Million every single week, that player would need to play for something like 80 years to "guarantee" a win - that's 4,160 tournaments!
My point is, recreational players often think they are on a terrible downswing, because they haven't cashed for 10 or 20 tournaments, or haven't won a tournament in 50 attempts, but in reality this is going to happen from time to time, even normal. Personally, I have played just under 300 tournaments on ipoker this year and haven't won a single tournament (a few 2nd and 3rds), but have an overall ROI of 79%, but within that, I have runs of 20 tournaments without even a min-cash, and yet, I'm probably running above expectation over what is still a pretty small sample size.
My recommendation to you would be to study more, especially those spots where you got unlucky and see if you really got unlucky, or if you could have played the hand better. If you played the hand well and just got unlucky - great! You should be happy that you got your money in good safe in the knowledge that in the long run, you made a profitable play. If you played the hand poorly - great! You have found a mistake, or a leak in your game that you can look to improve on and avoid in the future, making you a better player and more likely to get that deep run in the future.