gotalljax
Rock Star
Silver Level
AA vs. QQ... Which hand would you rather have with this flop...???
K
Karnivol
Rising Star
Bronze Level
QQ
I personally rather have the QQ. I already have trips with the possibility of a full house or even possibly quad queens. I'd rather have the set FOR SURE than have a draw. QQ is slightly favored over the AA too so it's like an added bonus although it's roughly a coin flip. Both hands are all inable, but I would feel more comfortable with QQ.
I personally rather have the QQ. I already have trips with the possibility of a full house or even possibly quad queens. I'd rather have the set FOR SURE than have a draw. QQ is slightly favored over the AA too so it's like an added bonus although it's roughly a coin flip. Both hands are all inable, but I would feel more comfortable with QQ.
aliengenius
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
(d)uuuuhhhhhh
Mikey Angs
Rising Star
Bronze Level
yeah, i realize that 11 times isn't really a sufficient amount of times to run these hands against each other, or develop anything really concrete.
Believe me it crossed my mind while i was doing it i just didnt have the time to run it 50 or 100 times
C
cAPSLOCK
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Good Lord.
Sometimes the response of seasoned players/forum members to posts like this one seems snarky or over-superior to me... and that is a negative about (poker) forums in general imho.
But it's understandable when so many threads like this one burn on and on long after the ANSWER TO THE QUESTION is SETTLED.
There are all kinds of fun hypothetical, gametype or strategy discussions we can have... and to some extent we have had. BUT,
Sometimes the response of seasoned players/forum members to posts like this one seems snarky or over-superior to me... and that is a negative about (poker) forums in general imho.
But it's understandable when so many threads like this one burn on and on long after the ANSWER TO THE QUESTION is SETTLED.
There are all kinds of fun hypothetical, gametype or strategy discussions we can have... and to some extent we have had. BUT,
THE QUEENS WIN THIS MORE OFTEN THAN THE ACES.
PERIOD.
john003
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I saw almost this exact same scenario about 2 weeks ago in a house tourney.
Me: 6k chips preflop, QhQs
Villian: 2k chips preflop, JcJh
25/50 blinds
I raise MP to 200. Villian reraises to 600. I call.
Flop: AcKcQc
I bet 600 (slightly less than half pot). His response was "I have to get it all in on this flop!". So he shoves, I call.
Queens held up.
I'll take the set in that situation anyday. If you get drawn out on, hey. You got your money in with the better hand and lost. That's poker.
Me: 6k chips preflop, QhQs
Villian: 2k chips preflop, JcJh
25/50 blinds
I raise MP to 200. Villian reraises to 600. I call.
Flop: AcKcQc
I bet 600 (slightly less than half pot). His response was "I have to get it all in on this flop!". So he shoves, I call.
Queens held up.
I'll take the set in that situation anyday. If you get drawn out on, hey. You got your money in with the better hand and lost. That's poker.
RogueRivered
Visionary
Silver Level
What's that have to do with it? The question was which would you prefer. Bet sizing is everything. A set of Queens is only 57.66% to win. I can think of many situations where the money in the pot makes that a no-brainer, profitable call, over the long run.
C
cAPSLOCK
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
You'll have to explain to me why I am not understanding you. I am not sure you are defending the play with the aces or the queens. But it doesn;t matter The ONLY "no-brainer, profitable call, over the long run" as you put it is the queens. The aces LOSE. Bet sizing doesn't matter to this question.
You are right we need more than 11 played scenarios to get an acurate result. But we can approximate the distribution of an average result easily without even playing out the hand once. Simple outs calculations will give you a close enough approximation to the answer.
The rule of two and four gets a little inaccurate at a point so a common adjustment is to subtract a percentage for every out over 7.
The guy holding the aces needs: An ace or jack, and any diamond but a queen. The turn and river gives two chances at 12 outs. (the jack is a little funny, as it give the aces a straight and the queens two pair with a FH redraw, but thats so remote we can ignore it)
(Outs * #of cards to come * 2%) - 1 * (outs-7) = %chance
(12 * 2 * 2) - 5 = 48-5 = 42%
Pretty much the same number Poker Stove comes up with.
RogueRivered
Visionary
Silver Level
Maybe I'm looking at this in the wrong way (always a distinct possibility
), but to me the question isn't which hand is better, it's which hand would you rather have. Clearly the QQ is the better hand at this point, but it also could lose you a bunch of money. The AA has less down side (probably) if you don't fill the flush and you realize your top pair is beat. If we were all-in pre-flop, then sure, we'd choose the set of queens every time, because there is no further betting. But what if there's, say, $100 in the pot and the player with the queens bets the pot. So the player with the aces has to call $100 for a chance to win $200, 2-to-1 odds. He'd need to be worse than 33% to win to make a mistake by calling, but we know he's around 43%. If there was just a small stack behind, he couldn't very well fold on the river either. But if there were huge stacks behind, he'd have to either fold on the river if he missed, or he'd end up being a big favorite to win a huge stack from the queens.
It's kind of like set-mining -- you can't do it profitably unless there is enough money behind to pay you off when you hit to make up for all the times you missed.
Therefore, for the question in the OP, I don't know which I would prefer. The answer would depend on many more factors than simply which hand is best right now.
RogueRivered
Visionary
Silver Level
I mean post-flop, ha ha. You can't very well have a set of queens pre-flop!
C
cAPSLOCK
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Seems to me if all the money isn't already in (which pre flop AA vs QQ is quite possible) then it will be after this flop. In all practicality the hand is already over, we just have to see it play out.
The player with the queens understands that if his opponent doesn't have him beat then he has to stop him from drawing... all the money is going in. He reason to be scared of diamonds or straights - there is only one play here.
There is no implied odds situation. The queens have the lead.
The player with the queens understands that if his opponent doesn't have him beat then he has to stop him from drawing... all the money is going in. He reason to be scared of diamonds or straights - there is only one play here.
There is no implied odds situation. The queens have the lead.
RogueRivered
Visionary
Silver Level
So you would prefer the queens -- okay, I can respect that and understand your reasoning.
As for me, I'm still not sure which I would prefer. I'd need to know more about the players, the stacks, the pot, etc. before making up my mind. I'd be especially nervous with the 3 diamonds on the flop when I don't have one. Too cautious, I guess!
RogueRivered
Visionary
Silver Level
Another issue is who acts first after the flop. Being out of position is a major disadvantage with either hand, and you may be forced to fold even if you're better than 50% to win.
I think with a toss-up situation like this, I'd be happy with a cheap showdown, rather than trying to get all the money in (unless the stacks are pretty small).
I think with a toss-up situation like this, I'd be happy with a cheap showdown, rather than trying to get all the money in (unless the stacks are pretty small).
