Are you automatic all-in when your hand is better than a 50% favorite?
PurgatoryD
Visionary
Silver Level
OK, I just downloaded pokerstove. That has got to be the coolest poker analysis program EVER. Wow! Thanks, I'll be using that one a lot.
OK, here's what it gave me:
With 9h Th Td on the board (the board that may have caused me a little concern), my equity was 53.815% and my opponent's was 46.185%.
With 2h 6h 9d on the board, my equity was 60.707% and my opponent's was 39.293%.
OK, but that's my opponent's range for getting to the flop. After the flop, let's say the board is 9h Th Td and it's my bet. If his range for calling tightens up to TT+,ATs,JTs then my equity drops to 43.553% and his increases to 56.447%. So against that particular opponent, right after the flop, a shove would be a bad idea, right? Because if he calls, he's the favorite.
To get my actual equity, wouldn't I need to factor in my fold equity as well? Let's say his range tightened up so much that he's only going to be in his range and call 5% of the time. Then 95% of the time, the pot is mine. So if my all-in is only a 5X pot bet, and I get the pot 95% of the time with him folding, it seems like all-in is a good move. (In fact, that sounds like my short stack game!) But if my all-in would be 100X the pot, then maybe not. Any ideas on this? And any ideas on working those numbers?
I'm thinking I would have to compute the probability of being dealt each of the hands in his post-flop calling range and compare those to the probabilities of being dealt the hands in his pre-flop range. I'll give this some more thought (ugh, other duties call) but any additional thoughts would be appreciated.
Thanks again for all the help. I love trying to tie the various intuitions and theories to the math. Pokerstove is going to be a big help!
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
Yeah, you need to think about how often he'll fold as well (your fold equity). Also you shouldn't be thinking about always just shoving all-in.
Just making a normally sized raise work much better in most cases. Your goal is not always to make your opponent fold, it's to make him make a mistake, whether by folding when he should call or raise or by calling when he should fold or raise. So in your 2nd example if we shove and he folds pocket 5s for example, we're allowing him not to make the mistake of calling when he's behind in terms of equity.
Just making a normally sized raise work much better in most cases. Your goal is not always to make your opponent fold, it's to make him make a mistake, whether by folding when he should call or raise or by calling when he should fold or raise. So in your 2nd example if we shove and he folds pocket 5s for example, we're allowing him not to make the mistake of calling when he's behind in terms of equity.
PurgatoryD
Visionary
Silver Level
That's what I thought. Great, I think I've got all parts of the equation now.
LOL! I know, I know. It just made the point I was trying to ask about originally a lot easier to work through. In an actual game, yes, we all do "the dance" of raising, re-raising, etc. to help us narrow down those ranges that we have to consider. Unless we're short stacked, of course.
Another good example. You're right, that's what we do when we try to "trap" someone, so this just furthers that thought. So much to consider when trying to capture someone's play with math. Ah well, the challenge is fun.
OK, I'm going to give this some time, work through some numbers, and then I'll probably use the results to start another thread asking some more fun questions!
Thanks again, and I'll see you around!
-Dave
dwolfg
Visionary
Silver Level
In ring games, yes I always want to get as much money in when I have a positive ev. Now, with all things in poker, you have to keep your opponents in mind. If your opponent can fold later on when the draw is completed, it might be a good idea to apply the maximum pressure immediately. If your opponent has difficulty folding hands, it might be a good idea to see if you can make your draw before putting a lot in. You will still likely get paid, but will save some money the times you miss and you cant get your opponent to fold.
Poof
Made in the USA
Silver Level
This is what I based my answer on, so the majority of you guys are shoving here in a cash game?
I am just asking, if this is the case I seriously need to grow a set and call alot more I think.
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
That's one reason why you're not very good at poker.
PurgatoryD
Visionary
Silver Level
My original question was flawed, so it doesn't really apply to any real situation. The only way it would apply is if your opponent showed you both of his hole cards. And that doesn't generally happen, of course.
In reality, you place your opponent on a range. In addition to his range that got him to the flop, he's got another range for calling your all-in if you do shove. So you have to take that calling equity and combine it with your fold equity to arrive at a decision.
As with just about every poker question ever asked, this answer is: it depends.
Sorry about all the confusion. I was just oversimplifying things (as usual).
PurgatoryD
Visionary
Silver Level
If you're using proper bankroll management, your bankroll is NEVER at risk just because you go all-in in the right situation. You should read some more about bankroll management because not being able to go all-in is going to severely limit your game!
Good luck. That's what this place is for!
Poof
Made in the USA
Silver Level
I was just stuck on the, after the flop you have a strait or flush draw in a cash game....shove?
It looked as if alot of players said yes, but I suppose it would also depend on how much you put in preflop...serious poker gives me a headache. lol
It looked as if alot of players said yes, but I suppose it would also depend on how much you put in preflop...serious poker gives me a headache. lol
L
Liveone1
Rock Star
Silver Level
People have already said that it's about hand range and you agree. I'm not sure if this has been touched on yet as I'm too lazy to read through the posts, so my bad, but another one of the key factors with huge draws is your fold equity.
These draws allow you to be aggressive and get more action in the long haul as you force people to either gamble with you or be timid and hand over the pot. This will eventually force your opponents to play badly against you (tilt) if your playing against their range effectively.
This also widens your hand range in your opponents eyes (I think he's bluffing). More action. It would be a semi bluff and the more money that's in the pot when you make this aggressive play, the more you will come out ahead in the long run . It should now go without saying that if you have more than one person in the pot, have position and a decent sized pot with a huge 45%-50% draw, or are out of position having been re-raised with a now decent sized pot and more than one player you're going to want to shove. That wasn't your question but thought I'd put it out there.
Edit: damn internet connection. stack size can also play a vital role.
These draws allow you to be aggressive and get more action in the long haul as you force people to either gamble with you or be timid and hand over the pot. This will eventually force your opponents to play badly against you (tilt) if your playing against their range effectively.
This also widens your hand range in your opponents eyes (I think he's bluffing). More action. It would be a semi bluff and the more money that's in the pot when you make this aggressive play, the more you will come out ahead in the long run . It should now go without saying that if you have more than one person in the pot, have position and a decent sized pot with a huge 45%-50% draw, or are out of position having been re-raised with a now decent sized pot and more than one player you're going to want to shove. That wasn't your question but thought I'd put it out there.
Edit: damn internet connection. stack size can also play a vital role.
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PurgatoryD
Visionary
Silver Level
Yeah, drunk poker is far more fun! LOL! Although that gives me a headache as well...
Yes, this was touched upon, but thanks for the input. It helps reinforce the pertinent ideas.
