Will someone who's really good at math help...

[N.D.]

Me to figure something out. It's part of my "bot-conspiracy theory"/paranoia. Geeze this game can make me paranoid.

Anyway, I think it's from an old episode of Poker After Dark, where Gus Hansen won with suited connectors and someone commented on his winning the most hands with suited connectors of anyone. Then he said something like: "Well that's only fair since I play the most suited connectors. I should win..."

Anyway, and I've seen it mentioned in articles how there are just more hands played online and faster than in RL, and I'm thinking if u factor in number of questionable to bad hands played it should explain the suckage.

So if it makes sense that Gus should win with more suited connectors based on the sheer number of them he plays(but I watch and he doesn't play them willy-nilly, he's thinking about it), then shouldn't it be equally logical that a chaser should win more chasing hands, just based on how many hands they chase?

At the same time, shouldn't they still be losing an awful lot? So much that it should make chasing unprofitable?

Anyway, I think it explains the suckage. However, I do think it's something that can be gotten around. I used to think bots, chasers, and fish, were unbluffable. However, and it's generally a guess on my part, they aren't. Just spot a busted draw on the board, and so long as they haven't two pair, and the board's not paired, you can get them to fold. Even if u caught air...

But there's more. It's even better if they do have two pair and you're holding much better. They can't fold two pair. They also can't bring themselves to fold a pre-flop pair. I watched a friend beat one with a str8, went through the history and wouldn't ya know it? They couldn't fold 77.

 

[Goldog]

A chaser would chase all he could...:bike:

 

[zachvac]

What's this have to do with math?

You're right the more hands played the more chasers suckout the more chasers lose while chasing. You sort of described a calling station. They're the best to play against. Wait for a hand and bet it hard. If they have any sort of hand you could be able to stack them.

 

[switch0723]

well i have an A at A level in maths, and glad i could help with the maths part of tis thread

 

[DetroitJimmy]

The fact that Gus Hanson wins with SC's a lot is not only because he plays them a lot.It's because he knows how to play them.Not only SC's,but any to cards.I'm not pretending to know much about his style of play,but I do know it involves a keen instinct on being able to read a table.This is something neither a poor player nor a poker bot can do.

A person who chases flush draws without proper odds or close to it will be a losing player in the long run.I will never call someone down with a 4 flush while they are betting the pot.Although I will bet or raise with my strong drawing hands.

 

[trouble92]

I don't care what anyone says but, every poker site I have played on seems to have one or two chosen seats on the table. Does'nt seem to matter what or how they play their one out comes up and they think they are the greatest player to hit the game. For me that gets old after awhile. I guess I need a break from online poker. Good Luck All Trouble92

 

[Tygran]

I don't care what anyone says but, every poker site I have played on seems to have one or two chosen seats on the table. Does'nt seem to matter what or how they play their one out comes up and they think they are the greatest player to hit the game. For me that gets old after awhile. I guess I need a break from online poker. Good Luck All Trouble92

we really need an auto-delete script here...

/sigh

 

[switch0723]

we do definately need one

 

[N.D.]

So if it makes sense that Gus should win with more suited connectors based on the sheer number of them he plays(but I watch and he doesn't play them willy-nilly, he's thinking about it), then shouldn't it be equally logical that a chaser should win more chasing hands, just based on how many hands they chase?

I did in my original post give proper respect(I believe), to the fact Gus knows how to play suited connectors. Heck, who am I kidding? He knows how to play just about every hand. One of the things I like watching is when he or another "looser"(but they're not all that loose, not even Gus, just has a rep for it, I dunno why), plays "questionable" hands well. I know I can't, but it's fun to watch someone who can.

Now I'm sorry, but I do think good players will chase if you make it cheap for them. I'm not talking about when it's cheap to chase though. Talking about when you make it expensive and they just have to get to the river.

Hmmm, I guess I'm trying to figure what's a large enough quantity of chasers to skew things.

I figured my way around them so I'm doing okay, and not hurting(for time being). I'm just wondering how many chasers it would take to make it look like the site's broken. Cuz I do keep hearing people saying stuff about "The most bad beats" and "Most suckouts" and so forth.

Mod can lock or delete this thread if they want. I think it's got less to do with math and more to do with psychology(my own actually).

Sorry it's that all the paranoia(which led to observation so I can't complain), and complaints about the site being rigged got to me. Was trying hard to find something logical. Failed. I'm sorry.

 

[K_Kahne_Fan]

I understand what you're trying to say. A lot more chasers = a lot more catchers. Then, when those of us who have a strong hand bet big and someone catches we ask "Why the hell would you call that?!"... because they are more than likely new to poker and don't know not to call that. And, even though that fish may soon learn not to chase, 100 more just signed up on the site that don't know not to chase, so they chase and still tick us off... making it appear as though a site is rigged. When in reality, it's just a lot of chaser catching what we think we are too "smart" to chase... make sense?

 

[N.D.]

Oh and this wasn't meant to be a "The site's rigged" thread. I haven't seen any chosen seats. Even with my nutty outlook on the game. Not a one.

Here's what I've seen:

One or two really good players at a given table, playing well. Some decent players(I count myself as a decent microstakes player at the lowest levels, but I know I'm not great), in the middle doing their best. And some bots, chasers, and fish at the bottom.

Problem seems to be the decent players get sucked into playing as best we can(we need to improve our trapping skills, if we have any at all). Your best decent game can't beat every "bad" player at the table. You do have to get very good. Not just decent. Very good. I'm working on that.

Oh and you might think something's weird if you get a lot of suckage higher up. I don't figure it quite that way though. See, I figure some folks are lucky enough to get no deposit bonuses, others have fought up from freerolls, and a select 3rd group has deposited funds out of their own pockets(God bless them).

It's the depositors who have a lot of money but not a lot of experience(I feel this strongly), who would be chasing a lot at higher stakes(but it's all low stakes at UB I think the highest table is $1/2 but that's a lot more than pennies).

Anyway, I'm slightly less paranoid now and that's a good thing.

 

[N.D.]

I understand what you're trying to say. A lot more chasers = a lot more catchers. Then, when those of us who have a strong hand bet big and someone catches we ask "Why the hell would you call that?!"... because they are more than likely new to poker and don't know not to call that. And, even though that fish may soon learn not to chase, 100 more just signed up on the site that don't know not to chase, so they chase and still tick us off... making it appear as though a site is rigged. When in reality, it's just a lot of chaser catching what we think we are too "smart" to chase... make sense?

Yeah, and I thought somehow there would be math involved. Only there wasn't. I goofed. But once you figure your way around them, be they bots or chasers, they're easy to beat .

I think I mess myself up too, with "Gotta get it back from the guy who took it", and "What did I do wrong?". I'm not blaming anyone but myself though.

 

[pigpen02]

The "rigged" comments were aimed at Trouble92 who tried to hijack your fine thread and make it something else. Look back at the whole thread to see that.

 

[OzExorcist]

If you ask me, the original point has a lot more to do with Gus talking trash than it does maths

As for the math though, while a chaser might suck out on more occasions, but they'll still be losing the same percentage of the time. So they'll suck out more in absolute terms, but they'll lose more too.

 

[allndave]

i guess thats why we all play gus the chasers loose ,tight if it's your day
the math dosn't matter . IF in fact the math does work in the long run i'm
due to win a lot of those races lol. 70% / 30% lead preflop 70-30=40%
thats the way the math works for me.

 

[switch0723]

i guess thats why we all play gus the chasers loose ,tight if it's your day
the math dosn't matter . IF in fact the math does work in the long run i'm
due to win a lot of those races lol. 70% / 30% lead preflop 70-30=40%
thats the way the math works for me.

maths plays a huge role in cash poker. If you play the odds right you will be a winning player. Even if you dont really know how to play poker, you can be a winner just by calling with odds, and folding without them