ObbleeXY
Visionary
Bronze Level
I think, in poker, we often refer to this as variance.
You can play a good strategy, but in the end, luck enters into the game in the short term. Over the longer term however, a good strategy will be a successful strategy as probability smoothes out variance over larger data sets.
Of course, you may find your luck also improves when you play fewer, but better quality, starting hands. A failing strategy might have many many reasons, but fundamentally, the most likely is that you play too many hands, particularly against loose players.
It's possible that you are playing too few hands (against particularly tight players)...but that is less common for new poker players.
Bet sizing can be an issue too. If your bet sizing is too small, you end up with multiplayer pots. Stealing such pots becomes very difficult. Larger pre-flop bet sizes, accompanied by a stronger/narrower rangeof starting hands will put you in more pots where there is only one caller. Head-to-head is a great opportunity to bully and test your opponent with strong raises and occasional check raise.
One doesn't need to hit the flop, turn or river to win a pot...just to win a showdown...which more targeted bet sizing may help you avoid. Just remember to do it at the right times, against exploitable opponents (ie reduce your bet sizing or check against call stations, unless you've hit, in which case, raise higher than usual.
One of the things poker players forget about is improving their margins through value betting.
It is quite common to see big turn or river bets resulting in a fold. With winning hands, we want to optimise our betting to get better value. Sometimes that needs to be THIN-VALUE (just a BB or two or three). Getting a few extra chips out of your opponent before they fold is the art...but I see many people starting from the wrong end (ie starting betting too high and working downward).
Similarly, weak pre-flop bets encourage multiway pots. With multiways, your low pairs are rarely good against a flop including broadways...whereas if I'm heads up, I'm betting my low pairs from position. The bet sizing needs to be enough to make your opponent stop and think.
Finally, and also related to preflop bet sizing and exploitative poker... you do not need a good starting hand to play exploitative poker. Identify the Nits at the table. (ie those who play tighter than tight). Be willing to bet, donk bet or check raise more against nits. You can take down many nits holding AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ, JT by strongly betting your low pairs on flop, turn and river when only 1 or zero high cards hit the flop, turn and river.
(defending your BB early also helpos stem the flow of blood when you have a long run of weak starting hands.)
At the end of the day, I don't doubt that you've had some bad runs. We all get them.
and it can be frustrating when a normally strong strategy isn't working.... but some changes to your game might bring you newfound luck in the form of a larger chipstack, reduced leakage, larger win sizes.
Best of Luck.
Regards,
JT
You can play a good strategy, but in the end, luck enters into the game in the short term. Over the longer term however, a good strategy will be a successful strategy as probability smoothes out variance over larger data sets.
Of course, you may find your luck also improves when you play fewer, but better quality, starting hands. A failing strategy might have many many reasons, but fundamentally, the most likely is that you play too many hands, particularly against loose players.
It's possible that you are playing too few hands (against particularly tight players)...but that is less common for new poker players.
Bet sizing can be an issue too. If your bet sizing is too small, you end up with multiplayer pots. Stealing such pots becomes very difficult. Larger pre-flop bet sizes, accompanied by a stronger/narrower rangeof starting hands will put you in more pots where there is only one caller. Head-to-head is a great opportunity to bully and test your opponent with strong raises and occasional check raise.
One doesn't need to hit the flop, turn or river to win a pot...just to win a showdown...which more targeted bet sizing may help you avoid. Just remember to do it at the right times, against exploitable opponents (ie reduce your bet sizing or check against call stations, unless you've hit, in which case, raise higher than usual.
One of the things poker players forget about is improving their margins through value betting.
It is quite common to see big turn or river bets resulting in a fold. With winning hands, we want to optimise our betting to get better value. Sometimes that needs to be THIN-VALUE (just a BB or two or three). Getting a few extra chips out of your opponent before they fold is the art...but I see many people starting from the wrong end (ie starting betting too high and working downward).
Similarly, weak pre-flop bets encourage multiway pots. With multiways, your low pairs are rarely good against a flop including broadways...whereas if I'm heads up, I'm betting my low pairs from position. The bet sizing needs to be enough to make your opponent stop and think.
Finally, and also related to preflop bet sizing and exploitative poker... you do not need a good starting hand to play exploitative poker. Identify the Nits at the table. (ie those who play tighter than tight). Be willing to bet, donk bet or check raise more against nits. You can take down many nits holding AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ, JT by strongly betting your low pairs on flop, turn and river when only 1 or zero high cards hit the flop, turn and river.
(defending your BB early also helpos stem the flow of blood when you have a long run of weak starting hands.)
At the end of the day, I don't doubt that you've had some bad runs. We all get them.
and it can be frustrating when a normally strong strategy isn't working.... but some changes to your game might bring you newfound luck in the form of a larger chipstack, reduced leakage, larger win sizes.
Best of Luck.
Regards,
JT
