Showdown Winnings vs. cbetting

zachvac

zachvac

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I spent a cuppla years learning all this crap. Studied hard for a long time and now........

Like trigonometry, once you learn it. It's useless, but for occasional circumstances. Well, not useless, it just becomes less and less important.

I dunno, it's more important (to me) to get my eyes off the numbers and onto the action.

Don't even use a poker helper/stat tracker anymore.

That said, I do my money gaming at a live casino. Only play for free on line. And I play em just like a donkey. What a relief. Just throw it out there. It really is quite cathartic.

Who the $#*& cares?


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ok i'm not trying to be mean here, but what the hell are you talking about? We're talking about specific examples that come up constantly in poker and how to deal with them, along with stats which outline the overall play of both ourselves and our opponents, and you respond with "who the $#*& cares?" and that you don't use a tracker?
 
zachvac

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I'm also playing 25NL, so as I move up in stakes my NSD winnings may be what suffers?


I actually think it's like the opposite. At low stakes you should have high SD winnings because the players are worse and basically call too much, so you're aiming to bluff less and value bet your good hands. As you go up in stakes and players (apparently) are better and don't call as much (I put apparently because at least at 100nl you still have players that stack off with TPTK in unraised or just 3x-4x raised preflop), you can make more from bluffs and I think I've seen at the much higher limits where almost all the winners are winning money in non-showdown pots.
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

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After reading Jagsti's posts, I'm pretty sure he's on to something about WTSD affecting non-showdown winnings. I wouldn't say I'm "calling stationy" but I do have a relatively high WTSD of 26.3%, with a 53.2% W$SD.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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After reading Jagsti's posts, I'm pretty sure he's on to something about WTSD affecting non-showdown winnings. I wouldn't say I'm "calling stationy" but I do have a relatively high WTSD of 26.3%, with a 53.2% W$SD.

whats your WSF%
 
CAPT. ZIGZAG

CAPT. ZIGZAG

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ok i'm not trying to be mean here, but what the hell are you talking about? We're talking about specific examples that come up constantly in poker and how to deal with them, along with stats which outline the overall play of both ourselves and our opponents, and you respond with "who the $#*& cares?" and that you don't use a tracker?

I knew that would be taken wrong.

Oh well..... Sorry


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zachvac

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Well I watched the cbet video, really thought about the points made in this thread, and played a session, cutting down on my number of tables. Instead of my typical 14/10/1.5 style game I played a 19/15/4 game. W$WSF at 45.5% and my flop cbet was up to 68.1%. This was over 1,008 hands and although winnings don't converge I think that's a decent sample for these stats to converge somewhat, at least to show they're different (possibly better?) than my old stats (nothing wrong with the preflop stuff, but it's the flop stats I was trying to "fix").

Could I get some input on these hands though? They all involve pretty much aggression when I miss the flop:

UTG+2: $41.90
MP1: $109.60
MP2: $154.60
CO: $107.85
BTN: $123.55
SB: $118.45
Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $25.50
UTG+1: $48.50

Pre-Flop: 8
heartnormal.gif
2
spadenormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BB)
7 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

Flop: ($2) 7
clubnormal.gif
5
diamondnormal.gif
9
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6

Turn: ($20) A
diamondnormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12

River: ($44) 3
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28





Is this next one just a standard fold?
SB: $101.35
BB: $100
UTG: $105
UTG+1: $101.50
UTG+2: $111.45
MP1: $155.55
Hero (MP2): $114.45
CO: $116.10
BTN: $98.50

Pre-Flop: 6
heartnormal.gif
6
clubnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (MP2)
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 4 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 9
spadenormal.gif
4
heartnormal.gif
A
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $6, MP1 calls $6

Turn: ($21.50) 4
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
MP1 bets $8


UTG: $202.55
UTG+1: $48.40
MP: $32.85
CO: $121.65
Hero (BTN): $96.50
SB: $108.40
BB: $78.80

Pre-Flop: Q
heartnormal.gif
7
heartnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BTN)
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) K
clubnormal.gif
T
clubnormal.gif
4
heartnormal.gif
(2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $12


CO: $120.30
Hero (BTN): $95.50
SB: $142.35
BB: $140.80
UTG: $40.30
UTG+1: $108.75
MP1: $64.35
MP2: $153.65

Pre-Flop: A
spadenormal.gif
K
diamondnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, CO calls $5

Flop: ($15.50) 5
spadenormal.gif
4
clubnormal.gif
T
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($15.50) 2
diamondnormal.gif
(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $11, CO calls $11

River: ($37.50) J
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $21


Maybe I'd get better results in the HA section, just since we'd been discussing the concepts here, curious on feedback, especially from Chuck and Chris_TC about whether these are decent plays or just spew (and the one is a good example of where I face a flop check-raise).
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

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Pre-Flop: 8
heartnormal.gif
2
spadenormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BB)
7 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

Flop: ($2) 7
clubnormal.gif
5
diamondnormal.gif
9
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6

Turn: ($20) A
diamondnormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12

River: ($44) 3
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28
I don't like it very much because it's a limped pot. Usually I'd just fold the flop.
Do you have any reads on him? If he's a good player, he won't call you down with a naked nine, he'll have at least two pair. A bad player might call both the flop and the turn with just a nine and will probably fold to your third barrel.
A quick note on the betsizing: since you're repping a very big hand and are getting action, you're gonna want to bet the turn and the river bigger. Because that's what you'd do if you really had a big hand. Against a fish it probably doesn't matter as much, but against a decent player it may be what it takes to make villain fold 75s.

Pre-Flop: 6
heartnormal.gif
6
clubnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (MP2)
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 4 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 9
spadenormal.gif
4
heartnormal.gif
A
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $6, MP1 calls $6

Turn: ($21.50) 4
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
MP1 bets $8

There aren't really any draws on that board and it's unlikely he's betting a pocket pair which would be pretty stupid. I also think it's unlikely he was floating you out of position. So this is either a 4 or a weirdly played Ace I'd say. Possibly something huge like nines full. Either way, I'd definitely fold there.

Pre-Flop: Q
heartnormal.gif
7
heartnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BTN)
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) K
clubnormal.gif
T
clubnormal.gif
4
heartnormal.gif
(2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $12

I think this is a bad spot to 3-bet or float. Since it's a minraise, he could obviously have a set of 444 or KT (KK and TT he'd probably 3-bet preflop).
More in line with the board texture is a big draw like QJss, but he's not going to fold this either. Or he could have Kx, and I'm not sure you want to try and barrel him off of that.
Finally, he could of course be bluffing, but since that's only a small part of his range, I say we should just fold.


Pre-Flop: A
spadenormal.gif
K
diamondnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, CO calls $5

Flop: ($15.50) 5
spadenormal.gif
4
clubnormal.gif
T
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($15.50) 2
diamondnormal.gif
(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $11, CO calls $11

River: ($37.50) J
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $21

I'd c-bet the flop most of the time. Since he overlimped and called your raise he'll very rarely have much. I'd expect him to have a small pocket pair a lot of the time.
A delayed c-bet on that turn card isn't ideal because there's not much we can rep other than maybe a slowplayed monster.
His turn call and river check definitely lead me to believe that he probably has some sort of (pocket) pair. Whether your river vbet bluff works depends largely on your opponent.
If I was the villain in this hand with pocket 33, I'd almost definitely call your river bet because there's simply not much you can have other than a monster (you wouldn't play KT or 99 like that). And monsters are pretty rare. A fish might make the same call, but not for the reasons I've just given, a fish would call simply because he has a pair, and one can't fold pairs.

I think in general you want to make sure that you tell a consistent story. If you bluff, always think of a hand (or several hands) that you could be holding, and then play every street as if you were actually holding one of the hands you're repping.
 
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