Poker theory is giving me a headache

[ckenguy]

get a feel for your opponents, then deal with 'em accordingly. observe, then expose.

numbers should be second nature, read your table and play your opponents.

always look like you know what youre doing and be quick about it. don't give your opponent time to think.

bully a bully.

never play long shots. (inside straight against a flush draw etc.)

stay disciplined, you will never win every single game, as long as you know you played well, you should be happy with yourself.

don't get mad if you know you played well and lost to a suckout/ thats poker.

 

[Young Cheese]

The only math a player should know is how to calculate what he feels his outs are, and correlate that into a percentage rather quickly. The system I found that works best is this - take your outs, let's says for this example it's a flush draw we hold.

You have:
9/8 Hearts

Opponent has:
A/A no hearts

Flop: Ks 2h 6h

This means we have 9 outs (the nine hearts left in the deck). Take your outs (in this case we have 9), multiply by 2 and add 1. So we have 9 x 2 = 18 + 1 = 19% chance of hitting our draw on the turn. In order to figure out what our odds are for the turn AND river; just double the 19% to 38% to compensate for the extra card. This gives you the chances of hitting your draw if you play the hand to a showdown.

This works for any scenario too. So if you can somehow narrow down what you think your opponent has (in this case if my opponent bet into me I would assume he has A/K for the purposes of making a pot odds decision); you can assume your percentage to win the hand using this system. Which generally leads to good decisions with regards to how much money you should be investing relative to your odds of winning. If I'm 38% to win with my draw, then I don't really want to put more than another 38% investment. So if the pot is 300 and the bettor comes out with a bet of 100 ... I'd call, b/c I'm getting 4 to 1 odds now after he makes the pot 400 with his bet. And b/c I'm better than 4 to 1 to win the hand, I call. So even though you know you're probably losing the hand at the moment, you just made a great call. Once you know the math poker is less stressful, ironic as that seems.

Again - Outs x 2 + 1 = percentage to hit on next card
Also - (Outs x 2 + 1)x2 = percentage to win on showdown if you see both the turn and river card

 

[kolobot]

The only math a player should know is how to calculate what he feels his outs are, and correlate that into a percentage rather quickly. The system I found that works best is this - take your outs, let's says for this example it's a flush draw we hold.

You have:
9/8 Hearts

Opponent has:
A/A no hearts

Flop: Ks 2h 6h

This means we have 9 outs (the nine hearts left in the deck). Take your outs (in this case we have 9), multiply by 2 and add 1. So we have 9 x 2 = 18 + 1 = 19% chance of hitting our draw on the turn. In order to figure out what our odds are for the turn AND river; just double the 19% to 38% to compensate ... .... ....

....

I fell a sleep while reading this. It was somewhere here.

 

[Young Cheese]

lol, it's too simple though - (Outs x 2) + 1 = %

And if you want to know what the % is for both the Turn and River card, you just double that number.

That's it. I don't see what else there is to learn, my Niece could work this math equation and she's only 3!

 

[Brann6]

I just use the 4 and 2 rule.

On the flop, outs x 4 = chance to hit by the river.

On the turn, outs x 2 = chance to hit by the river.

Implied odds = depends on the other player. ie: Is he stupid enough to stack off with top pair/top kicker?

 

[c9h13no3]

Just use the flush draws & oesd's have lots of outs, gutshots & overcards have less rule.

Pot odds for dummies: If the pot is big, and the bet is small, you don't need much of a draw to continue. If the pot is small, and the bet is big, your draw better be hella awesome.

Implied odds for dummies: How much money will it cost you to make a hand that beats what your opponent likely has? A little? How much can you win when you beat his hand? A lot? Then you have implied odds!

 

[thetaxman1]

Brilliant. These post make it a lot simpler for me. Now to solve the puzzle of Omaha High Low