Overpair...

[N.D.]

I was going to call it a bad beat. Instead I'll call it a lesson learned. Some folks can't fold a pair, especially when their cards plus the cards on the board give them what they think is top pair(at that moment)...

I had KK and someone had raised with what I was to learn was J/8. So I'm like "WTF, don't u know I have kings?" in my head. I was in much later position(hijack seat if remembering right, tonight was a blur), so I went ahead and re-raised a pot sized amount. Fair enough right? At this point I figure they should know I'm displaying strength and power. Um, nope. And they proceeded to bet their 8 which paired on the flop. They bet their pair and I raised hard but they weren't backing down. I wound up all-in but as best I could figure I'd lose to AA that wouldn't sting, or a set, that wouldn't sting either.

But no-o-o their 3rd 8 had to land and give them trips to my poor defenseless two pair. Darnit!

So yeah, their was suckage and it hurt like hell. But I decided to watch some more and sure enough, they did it again only to someone else.

But I did learn a lesson. I learned that what u guys keep saying is true. I got to learn in just a short time as well. Normally you'd have to wait forever and save up stats but this was one freaky table.

Two more times I had overpairs and they held up. On top of that I managed to get a wide variety of winning hands that went as they should, even with people chasing. So yeah, I learned that if I play as I should sooner or later it works out. I just believed it in a blind sort of way before but now I really believe it.


Anyway I'll dig through the history in the morning. Sleepy now, but I'll show you. I shoulda been recording it but I can't make the capture software work right. Just glad poker tracker's working for now.

Oh yeah and before I forget. I watched while someone tried to bluff Mr. Can't-Fold-A-Pair. They did this after my own incident. So I'm not the only one who has a lot to learn.

Oh and wanted to say thanks for telling me it all works out right in the end. I just hope it works out right enough times over long enough periods for me to do my best long term . Never got this far b4 though so I've got a lot of people to thank.

Oops just remembered poker tracker will show backwards sorta replays. Maybe I'll just record that if I can get it to work. Just remember it's 5c/10c so I can't make good plays every time on account of A. I'm not so great and B. Other players are even worse.

 

[Cheetah]

If a good player is giving me a lot of action, I could get away from an overpair. But with bad or unknown players, it is very difficult to do.

The additional problem is that they like to go all-in, so it is hard to play it sensibly even when blinds are still small.

In cash games, of course, this is a very profitable situation since many players overplay top pair.

 

[Chris_TC]

Oh and wanted to say thanks for telling me it all works out right in the end. I just hope it works out right enough times over long enough periods for me to do my best long term .

Just make sure to understand how long the short run can be.

Check out the attachment below. It shows a small part of the profit graph for my pocket Kings. Even though it's the second best hand and majorly +EV, it took 90 (!) pocket Kings before they started to show a consistent profit.

So don't freak out when your good hands get beat a lot. The short run can be much longer than you think.

 

[Cheetah]

Just make sure to understand how long the short run can be.

Check out the attachment below. It shows a small part of the profit graph for my pocket Kings. Even though it's the second best hand and majorly +EV, it took 90 (!) pocket Kings before they started to show a consistent profit.

So don't freak out when your good hands get beat a lot. The short run can be much longer than you think.

You should have folded the KK between 70 and 90.

 

[N.D.]

I know they're just picking on ya Chris TC but can I ask what your level is?

I'm mostly playing 5c/10c 6 max tables. I'm almost as low as you can go. I'm just thinking it stands to reason that even your graph won't apply to me. I mean in my head what makes sense is that the higher you go the more often premium hands hold up. So even if you're at 50c/$1 your KK should hold up more often than my KK at 5c/10c. I mean my best hands are already holding up more than they did at 1c/2c.

I just wish I hadn't let a good intentioned friend convince me to stick with 1c/2c for so long. I know he had the best intentions and variance in mind. Was even worried about how I could parlay and stuff with my BR, but the play at that level is just yikes!

I know I promised histories but when I slept through the Full Tilt freeroll I decided to go ahead and sleep most of the day away. It's Sunday and I'm lazy.

 

[Chris_TC]

I know they're just picking on ya Chris TC but can I ask what your level is?

This part of the graph was almost exclusively $1/$2.

But I don't think it has much to do with the blind levels. Unless you get a billion callers each time at the microstakes, your Kings (in the long run) shouldn't fare any worse than at higher levels.

 

[N.D.]

I think you're maybe forgetting something. Raise hard pre-flop with KK at higher levels and more folks fold pre-flop. Add a continuation bet and they'll usually fold on the turn. But way low down, if they need so much as one in four outs, they're going after it and well there's always more of a chance for suckage when you're up against someone who's willing to chase.

Of course the flip side is that their willingness to chase will frequently reap rewards because of how rarely they actually manage to suck out on you.

Of course everything's situational. I'm more apt to chase against someone who perpetually raises or bets the pot with no consideration given to position and stuff. I'll respect their raises and bets at first but after awhile pfft! Forget about it.

 

[Chris_TC]

I think you're maybe forgetting something. Raise hard pre-flop with KK at higher levels and more folks fold pre-flop. Add a continuation bet and they'll usually fold on the turn. But way low down, if they need so much as one in four outs, they're going after it and well there's always more of a chance for suckage when you're up against someone who's willing to chase.

Well, if they chase gutshot draws and whatnot, then you're actually going to make more money in the long run because they'll hit so rarely.

If you make a standard raise, c-bet and take it down right there, you profited how much? 5 or 6 big blinds? That's much less than what you get if they call you down to the river.

 

[Cheetah]

Well, if they chase gutshot draws and whatnot, then you're actually going to make more money in the long run because they'll hit so rarely.

If you make a standard raise, c-bet and take it down right there, you profited how much? 5 or 6 big blinds? That's much less than what you get if they call you down to the river.

The driving principle here is that one should bet enough to get called incorrectly, but not so much that they fold correctly.

In cash games, this principle is absolute. In tournaments, it is not.

If we have a made hand and check to a draw, we give them infinite odds to draw against us.

If we have a made hand and go all-in (with deep stacks), most players will fold correctly everything except what likely beats us.

Obviously, these 2 scenarios are not good for us because they make it easy for players to make the correct decision.

It should be obviouis that the "perfect" play requires betting in-between zero and all-in.

The objective in cash games is to make it unprofitable for the draws,
while still giving them the chance to make a mistake.

If none of your opponents is making mistakes, there is no $$$ to be made in that game.

 

[DaFrench1]

It should be obvious that the "perfect" play requires betting in-between zero and all-in.

I think this is sig-worthy. Wise words, Cheetah. Wise words.

 

[Cheetah]

I think this is sig-worthy. Wise words, Cheetah. Wise words.

Your lack of intelligence is perfectly matched by your total absence of manners.

Taking a phrase out of context and quoting it speaks volumes about your state of mind (or should I say the lack of it).

I feel sorry for you.

 

[bustme]

Well, if they chase gutshot draws and whatnot, then you're actually going to make more money in the long run because they'll hit so rarely.

If you make a standard raise, c-bet and take it down right there, you profited how much? 5 or 6 big blinds? That's much less than what you get if they call you down to the river.

You may earn on it in the long run but you get bigger risk(bigger bankroll),that may explain your graph.

If you have a read on the player you dont have to play it like that every time ( you can use your opponents weaknesses at your advantage)..If it is a fish ore a donk it would be a OK play... But not if it is a good player