Ok Mase, you have put forward a decent post offering good reason why a
poker site such as FTP would be crazy to incorporate some kind of rig into its game. You have displayed ( in your own opinion ) why the risk might just not be worth it.
So what I will do here is use your own figures to highlight some "possible" attractions for a rig to take place. Keep in mind the purpose of this exercise is purely to show that a rig "might" become attractive to those who might consider using it.
*Also, to keep things simple, I will be working from a steady amount of traffic throughout the 24 hour day.
My reasoning for this is that we are using figures for an average Tuesday, and knowing traffic increases at weekends etc, hopefully it balances itself out somewhat.
From your own figures we have the following.............
$10NL cash
$25NL cash
640 tables
10% rig
Average legit rake per hand = $0.1495
Rake of rigged hand = $1.9735
Net profit from a rigged hand = $1.824
1 hand per table being rigged every 90 minutes ( 1 per hour and a half )
Ok, now I am going to use those figures to show that an attraction is out there even for the likes of FTP.
Over a 24 hour* period we would have 16 rigged hands per table with a net profit of $29.18 per table. We have 640 tables so over a 24 hour period we are netting $18,675.20.
Likewise, over a monthly ( 30.41 days average ) period we now have $567,912.83 net rig, and over 1 calendar year that becomes $6,814,953.90
So only including $10NL & $25NL cash games at 10% overall rig ( or 1 rigged hand per table every 90 minutes at these 2 levels ) Mr moneybags at FTP might be finding that his eyes are starting to bulge looking at a figure of nearly $7M.
He hasn't even started to do the sums for ALL the cash game limits yet because he is having difficulty adjusting his eyes and he knows the final figure is going to be HUGE.
Back on track..............
Even if the rig percentage was dropped to 1% thus making it much more like a needle in a hay stack to detect we are still looking at $700k per year just for those 2 levels.
1% rig would make it less than 2 rigged hands per table over a 24 hour period. Now we can start to see the attraction of the gain, and the vastly lowered risk of detection.
Then we have something else to consider which you didn't have in your post, a very important ingredient ........... COSTS
FTP's hourly rate of profit by reading what goes on at the tables doesn't come close to giving us the true bottom line even if we do only use 2 levels ( $10NL & $25NL ) to work from.
One thing about a 10% or 1% or whatever rig, is that it wouldn't be effected by the overall running costs of the company because it's already fixed in and it's a secret
When the yearly true net profit of the company is known after all costs etc are taken out, and then adding up all cash games potential of say 1% - 10% rig, an attraction most certainly exists.
I guess a lot of the time it's going to be about which option outweighs the other in the eyes of the people with the button, and the same thing can be said for members opinions on whether it's worth it or not.
Mase, both your post and this post prove nothing, but they do both display reasons for and against riggaments.
