Math or Instincts?

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zachvac

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Maybe the math isn't there (you aren't getting the right odds) but your gut tells you your opp is bluffing or whatever.

See this is what I was talking about, that's not what math is.

From your definition:

the systematic treatment of magnitude, relationships between figures and forms, and relations between quantities expressed symbolically.2.(used with a singular or plural verb
thinsp.png
) mathematical procedures, operations, or properties.

So you completely ignore the forms, quantities, and magnitude and instead skip straight to odds? Odds of what? How can you not be getting odds if someone is bluffing? The way you use math is you decide what frequency do you think he is bluffing? Your instincts may tell you that he's bluffing almost all the time here, thus the "math" IS there. Math can never tell you to fold or call in poker. You apply the math to the situation. Figuring odds without accounting for the fact that he is bluffing is a failure in your utilization of the math, not the math itself.
 
Snowmobiler

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I'm getting dizzy,my head is spinning. :dontknow: :dontknow: :dontknow: :dontknow:
 
Infamous1020

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hey since zach obv doesnt know what hes talking about, how bout you play him heads up?

oh also, i see your instincts have guided you well, losing ~800 over 2.7k hands.

The manager ignored all logic said:
Now i'm no baseball player, but I do know hockey--and I can list several epic fails by coaches "going by instinct" lol @ this thread.

and even away from sports, I know some pretty famous events in history that were epic fails because of lack of logic ;)

lol OP btw, I'm sure you know this better than I do but youre most likely a terrible poker player-so you should probably listen to players better than you instead of telling them they have no idea what theyre talking about.
 
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StormRaven

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See this is what I was talking about, that's not what math is.

From your definition:

the systematic treatment of magnitude, relationships between figures and forms, and relations between quantities expressed symbolically.2.(used with a singular or plural verb
thinsp.png
) mathematical procedures, operations, or properties.

So you completely ignore the forms, quantities, and magnitude and instead skip straight to odds? Odds of what? How can you not be getting odds if someone is bluffing? The way you use math is you decide what frequency do you think he is bluffing? Your instincts may tell you that he's bluffing almost all the time here, thus the "math" IS there. Math can never tell you to fold or call in poker. You apply the math to the situation. Figuring odds without accounting for the fact that he is bluffing is a failure in your utilization of the math, not the math itself.

I didn't explain myself well and over-simplified the point, I'm trying to learn to get more to the point and skip some details in order to shorten my replys/posts.

Here's an example of what I meant in that statement, and maybe it goes against your theory, but fwiw this is what I meant:

You hold A8 diamonds. Opp has been at table for 10 minutes and has shown 2 bluffs. Everyone folds to you in co, you hold A8 diamonds and raise 3x bb, the opp who has shown 2 bluffs is on btn and calls. Sb folds, bb calls. All 3 players are pretty equal in chips, around the avg for the mtt. Flop is 6c 8h 10d, bb checks, you bet 1/2 pot, btn calls, bb calls. Turn is Jd, bb checks, you check, btn bets 1/2 pot, bb calls, you call. River is 2s. Bb checks, you bet 1/2 the pot, btn reraises and bets the pot, bb folds, it's on you. You think the btn is bluffing again, some read you've picked up from his last 2 bluffs, there are overs to your pair of 8's and of course a straight possibility. You aren't getting the correct pot odds to call so you fold. Btn takes down the pot and shows his bluff again.

This is a hand I was in, I was pretty certain I had picked up a read on the opp from the 2 bluffs he had shown. I considered he showed the 2 bluffs to induce action for when he really had a hand for a nice payout. I also was sure he was bluffing again but since he had only been there 10 minutes I had not yet put him on a bluff %.

If I had gone with my instinct, I would have won. I folded based on several factors, including poor pot odds.

I guess this is what I was thinking of when I made the statement you are referring to.
 
left52side

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I use them both equally,
Depends on my situation and what is going on at my table.
I play them both sometimes at the same time.
 
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What an idiotic topic.

Ofc "instinct" and logic are closely interwined, as the term instinct or "gut feeling" is colloquially used by humans.

For example, you see somebody shove the river and your "gut feeling" tells you that villain is bluffing. That feeling is based on many logical aspects, such as villain's image (are you telling me that your "gut" just "tells" you the answer and you don't make any differentiation between somebody who is super aggressive and somebody that is extremely passive?), game flow, hand ranges, etc. Even if you aren't explicitly thinking and going through these aspects, i assure you that they influence what your "gut feels".

Same is true of math. ALL of poker is at least partly based on math; however, this does not mean that you explicitly calculate the %s everytime you play. But if you are calling a pot-sized bet with a bluff catcher, the UNDERLYING reason is that you believe that villain has a bluff >1/3 of the time. If you semi-bluff shove with a flush draw, the UNDERLYING reason that you think it will be profitable is that you think you have enough fold equity + equity in the pot to make it profitable, even if your actual though process is simply "flush draw arrin".

To try to argue that instinct is separate from math or from logic is absolutely ignorant, unless you believe that we are genetically programmed to be able to make gut feeling decisions in poker IN THE ABSENCE of having played poker previously (ie. we just "feel" what is right in a given situation and this has no relationship to us having played poker). Because when you associate instinct with familarity with poker, the primary driving force becomes a "gut feeling" that is based on previous experience and knowledge (aka logic) rather than some concept of instinct devoid of this relationship.
 
Theblueduce

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I use both equally as well. Get a working knowledge of both and put them in your toolbox...and then just enjoy the game.
 
zachvac

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You hold A8 diamonds. Opp has been at table for 10 minutes and has shown 2 bluffs. Everyone folds to you in co, you hold A8 diamonds and raise 3x bb, the opp who has shown 2 bluffs is on btn and calls. Sb folds, bb calls. All 3 players are pretty equal in chips, around the avg for the mtt. Flop is 6c 8h 10d, bb checks, you bet 1/2 pot, btn calls, bb calls. Turn is Jd, bb checks, you check, btn bets 1/2 pot, bb calls, you call. River is 2s. Bb checks, you bet 1/2 the pot, btn reraises and bets the pot, bb folds, it's on you. You think the btn is bluffing again, some read you've picked up from his last 2 bluffs, there are overs to your pair of 8's and of course a straight possibility. You aren't getting the correct pot odds to call so you fold. Btn takes down the pot and shows his bluff again.
If he is bluffing enough, you are getting correct pot odds, that's what I've been saying the entire time. Your instinct told you he was bluffing. If he is bluffing, you obviously have proper pot odds. So sure you'd be using instinct, but the logic uses information based on this instinct. Pot odds never tell you to call or fold though. You can use them to figure out whether a call or fold is good based on his range and what he'll do on later streets if it's not the river, but that information is needed before you can do any pot odds stuff.
 
Snowmobiler

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If he is bluffing enough, you are getting correct pot odds, that's what I've been saying the entire time. Your instinct told you he was bluffing. If he is bluffing, you obviously have proper pot odds. So sure you'd be using instinct, but the logic uses information based on this instinct. Pot odds never tell you to call or fold though. You can use them to figure out whether a call or fold is good based on his range and what he'll do on later streets if it's not the river, but that information is needed before you can do any pot odds stuff.


So are you saying that if you are good against 50% of his range and the pot is giving you 3 to 1,pot odds doesn't dictate a call?
 
lcid86

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Depends on whether you're 'playing poker' or gambling. If you go strictly based on gut online, you'll lose. Hard to get a read off a monitor.
 
zachvac

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So are you saying that if you are good against 50% of his range and the pot is giving you 3 to 1,pot odds doesn't dictate a call?

Ah but you included the key part that I said before. The fact that you can figure out that you beat 50% of his range can be the instinct part. Instinct can usually give you a good estimate of what an opponent has, especially live when you have reads. You use the information that you have collected through instinct, observation, reads, and what standard actions are, and you can use those to check if the math dictates a call or not. Which is kinda what I've been saying the entire time, it's not a one or the other deal.
 
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feitr

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So are you saying that if you are good against 50% of his range and the pot is giving you 3 to 1,pot odds doesn't dictate a call?

You do realise that range analysis (aka your "instinct" about what range of cards villain could be holding) and pot odds go hand in hand right? If you think alot of villain's range includes bluffs (say 50%), then you are getting correct pot odds anytime that you are getting 1:1 or better on your money. As regards your previous post, how could you "not be getting correct pot odds" if you think villain is bluffing? If you thought 100% of villain's range was bluffs then you'd get "pot odds" to call everytime even if he was shoving $1M into a $10 pot.
 
Snowmobiler

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You do realise that range analysis (aka your "instinct" about what range of cards villain could be holding) and pot odds go hand in hand right? If you think alot of villain's range includes bluffs (say 50%), then you are getting correct pot odds anytime that you are getting 1:1 or better on your money. As regards your previous post, how could you "not be getting correct pot odds" if you think villain is bluffing? If you thought 100% of villain's range was bluffs then you'd get "pot odds" to call everytime even if he was shoving $1M into a $10 pot.


Could you quote where I talked about bluffing in this thread?
 
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feitr

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nvm i was talking about the post that zach quoted and i just figured you were the person that had originally said that (it was stormraven or something i guess now that i look).

So then i guess the answer to your post is, yes it would dictate a call. But with regards to the other post that talked about not getting correct pot odds when bluffing (which just doesn't make any sense at all), my previous post still applies.
 
Dwilius

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I don't think you're dumb enough to talk about the "instinct" that you're going to hit your flush this time.
My instincts are telling me you're wrong.
That's right "Wild Thing", because he says and I quote "I got a feeling he's due." to the catcher. That had nothing to do with logic and everything to do with his instinct (gut feeling). The manager ignored all logic, trusted his instinct, and it worked out in the end.
uncanny.
 
aliengenius

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Wolfpack43ACC often has a feeling that two plus two sometimes equals five...

Anyway... since you can never be sure exactly what percentage of the time you opponent is bluffing or exactly what his range is in a given situation, etc., one might say that getting closer on these [MATH] estimations is "instinct".
 
N.D.

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Wait aren't patterns part of math? I'm pretty good at spotting patterns. Instinct will kick in and someone will "feel" like they're bluffing, then I pause, run through the hands in my head and if their action doesn't fit the pattern I'll put them on a bluff. But the patterns are also part of knowing if my opponents are weak or strong.

I'd say math's inescapable. I'm a mathtard and even I use it. I can't calculate everything down to the exact percent, but I still seem to do the right thing in the right situation and upon review it's mathematically correct.

I said before that I'm an observational player. So I'm sticking with that. I observe and then decide what to do based on that. The decision making process I reckon is logistical. "Is it logical for this specific player to be in the hand based on previous actions?" If someone always raises big with baby cards, and they just call with big cards unless it's a big pair which they shove all-in with, then I'll probably call them down with A high with a decent kicker or better with a baby straight on the board if they just called pre-flop. There's math in there somewhere, I'm sure of it.
 
cardplayer52

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i think making a move based on how you "feel" is just plain dumb. are you going to hit more flushes because "your feeling it"? no. of coarse not everybody knows, its whether or not the cards are "feeling it" no you. so next time your gut tells you something ignore it and ask the cards are they "feeling it". but yes i play by my gut but am trying to get away from it and make more sound math desicions.
 
SavagePenguin

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Well you remember the one batter in that movie that owned Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn no matter what? 2 AB, 2 HR's. Stay with me now. Well who did the manager call on to get the last out of the inning in that movie against the Yankees? That's right "Wild Thing", because he says and I quote "I got a feeling he's due."

So you are defining instinct as ignoring prior results and behavior in favor of making a decision based on your feeling that you'll have a statistically improbable result this time?

So would that be like calling an over-bet on the turn with just a nut flush draw because your gut says that a heart will hit the river?
Or do you mean something more player specific, like calling a three-bet with second pair from a guy who almost never three-bets because you feel like this time he's bluffing?
Or both?

I think roulette might be more up your alley than poker.
 
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DawgBones

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Guess I'll specify. You have to choose one!

If this is a poll where is Cake and bastard?

Leave it to the "pro" to take a topic like this way too seriously and ruin it. You still don't understand the definition of instinct and logic, must I post it for you again? I know your fanboys, and CC crew have your back, but you don't know what the hell you're talking about so please just don't post in this thread anymore and take your posts else where.

Let me break it down for you in baseball terms so you can understand. Actually you remember the movie Major League I? Charlie Sheen, Tom Berenger, Corbin Bernson? Yea I figured you did. Well you remember the one batter in that movie that owned Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn no matter what? 2 AB, 2 HR's. Stay with me now. Well who did the manager call on to get the last out of the inning in that movie against the Yankees? That's right "Wild Thing", because he says and I quote "I got a feeling he's due." to the catcher. That had nothing to do with logic and everything to do with his instinct (gut feeling). The manager ignored all logic, trusted his instinct, and it worked out in the end. Now if you want me to research real MLB managers that have inserted pitchers into situations they shouldn't have been in because they felt good about their chances (IGNORING ALL LOGIC!) I will, but for now I rest my case.

Lol you're basing part of your argument on a movie? And yes I would love to see some % of managers inserting pitchers vs batters in these" ignored all logic" situations.

When it comes down to YOUR personal poker game which do you rely on more?

A. Math
B. Instincts

Instincts for me. I think it trumps math everytime and there is no feeling you should trust more than your gut feeling, even if you end up being wrong.
Once again where is Cake and bastard?

Answer to the OP if you can't do the math why would you trust your instincts? As SP states maybe roulette is more your game
 
Wolfpack43ACC

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Phil Ivey PWNS all you CardsChat Newbs

When it comes to advice about poker, my attitude is very simple: seek it out, absorb it, but while you're at the table, forget it.
I'm a firm believer in learning the game by playing the game. I'm not saying there aren't a lot of great resources around to help players improve their games or that poker books and tutorials don't have their place. They do. However, the problem I see with people who rely on these kinds of aids is that they end up playing poker like someone else or - even worse - like everyone else.
One of the things that makes poker great is that it's a game where there's really no right or wrong way to play. Every player has their own approach to the game and the key, in my opinion, is to take the things you learn from other players and incorporate them into a style of play that works for you.
There are some players who take a very mathematical approach to the game, and for them, it works. They study the odds and make decisions based on whether they think they're getting the right price to commit their chips to a pot. It's a solid way to play, but the fact is, it's not the right approach for everyone. What's more, even the best of these players will tell you that math only takes you so far.
Calculating the odds can certainly help you decide whether you're making a smart move, but it doesn't take into account who you're playing against. There are many times when you can do all of the math you want and your decision still comes down to intangibles and a feeling about your opponent or the situation you're facing. Does this guy have a hand? Can I push him off the pot? Am I getting myself into trouble here? Even if the odds say you should play, your gut may be telling you something else, and that's something you can only develop by playing.
Relying too much on other peoples' advice can actually make it harder to develop this kind of reading ability because it tends to clutter up your head. You get so focused on thinking about odds, probabilities and strategies that you forget that you're playing against someone else and that you have to try and figure out what he or she is doing. Are they scared? Will they fold to pressure? Are they a maniac? In my opinion, these are the important things to keep in mind during a hand.
It's been said before, but it bears repeating. Poker isn't about the cards; it's about the players and the situations. Winning players understand that sometimes you have to take chances. Sometimes they work and other times they don't. Whether you win the hand or not, you have to make the play that you believe is best.
At the end of a hand or a session, go back and study the things you did well and be honest with yourself about where you made mistakes. Don't, however, overanalyze how you could have played a hand differently because this can negatively impact how you approach your next hand or session. Identify your mistakes, learn from them, and move on. Just because some play or move didn't work the way you wanted doesn't mean you were wrong to try it. As I said before, there are just some things that you have to learn by playing.
So here's my advice. Read this tip. Read other tips and poker books. Talk to your friends. Absorb as much information as you can. But at the end of the day you have to trust your instincts and play your own game - not someone else's.
 
Egon Towst

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you don't know what the hell you're talking about so please just don't post in this thread anymore and take your posts else where.

I have an instinct that this is an unnecessarily rude comment. ;)
 
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