Main Event Final table predictions

[kmixer]

That's interesting.....what are the odds for each of the November 9 to win it all? Are the casinos in Vegas taking action on it? I'm sure they are! It would be very interesting to know is favored at books like Bellagio and Palms.

casinos in Vegas take action on whetehr or not CCers will start a thread like this so of course they take action on it

I would love to see Nguyen win it or at least get HU. That would be great.

 

[robert_wrath]

I will laugh so hard if Nguyen wins... he's the worst player and he knows it.

You'd be surprised, look at Hachem and Cada. Low stacked Main Event Champions. These instances occurred recently mind you.

 

[DeadlyV18]

Anyone except Candio, preferably Cheong or Racener.

 

[salim271]

You'd be surprised, look at Hachem and Cada. Low stacked Main Event Champions. These instances occurred recently mind you.

Has nothing to do with stacks, Hachem was basically a pro, he was playing the game for a living. Cada was also playing for a living, but mainly online. Nyugen hasnt played poker with any regularity for ten years, he doesnt even know what implied odds are... that's why it would be funny if he wins.

 

[x2486]

That's interesting.....what are the odds for each of the November 9 to win it all? Are the casinos in Vegas taking action on it? I'm sure they are! It would be very interesting to know is favored at books like Bellagio and Palms.

Here's what I found, but I'm not familiar with how to interpret these numbers:

Jonathan Duhamel +210
John Dolan +300
Michael Mizrachi +550
Joseph Cheong +700
John Racener +700
Matthew Jarvis +900
Filippo Candio +1000
Cuong Nguyen +1600
Jason Sentl +2000

 

[TheUndesirable]

Candio to win - but only if he gets his money in on the flop with a 13% chance to win.

 

[Nujabes]

You'd be surprised, look at Hachem and Cada. Low stacked Main Event Champions. These instances occurred recently mind you.

wasn't Jerry Yang also fairly short stacked going into the final table?

 

[jazzaxe]

One thing I know, is that you can't win with reputation in this game. You have to make aggressive bets at the proper moment and let the odds and the gods do the rest. I always favor the guy with the dominating stack, but well... who knows?

 

[tonyp336699]

The odds you found, X2486, are payoffs based on a $100 bet. So, it looks like duhamel is a little over 2 to 1 favorite, Dolan 3 to 1 and Mizrachi 5 1/2 to 1. I like Mizrachi but I would not bet unless I was getting atleast 9 to 1.

 

[Nujabes]

Duhamel has a big stack. But all it takes is one misstep and moment of hubris. He is not really that big a favorite. Plus he plays a reckless style.

 

[DeadlyV18]

Dolan is the dark horse IMO, the guy was 2 mil with 19 players left. Impressive comeback thanks to Sijpkens (who doubled him up twice).

 

[Exit141RTe1]

I am pulling for the Grinder. Sure hope he can pull it off.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Surprised Duhamel is that high. I'd say Nolan or Racener. Spoke to a pro I know at an engagement party and asked his view. He said top 3 Nolan, Racener and Cheong. Mizrachi probably just behind.

 

[tonyp336699]

Nov. "9"

Then backing Dolan at 2 to 1 is really a bad idea. Better to pick a 9 to 1 or better (those are the true odds). Who has the best possibility to pull off the most insane bluff? For those with trackers, look up the play of the 9 and post some findings, if possible.

 

[tonyp336699]

Sorry i meant Duhamel :=)

 

[Nujabes]

I am also a believer in Dolan now. The reason is that when the 2 tables converged into 10 players, Dolan gained the most chips by a good margain. That shows he is not intimidated and can play with the guys at the finak table. If the traditional format was still in place he would probably be the favorite to win it because of the momentum. But 4 months have likely cooled that

 

[Roller]

Mizrachi

The Grinder for the Win !!!!!

:beer:

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

I said above, I'm not sure why Duhamel is that high, cos I don't really rate him. Just seen the last couple episodes. Now I know. And I hope he gets sucked out on bad and finishes in 9th and cries.

 

[ThunderPT]

I'm cheering for Candio because he's the only european there and for Mizrachi because it could help in the fight to legalize poker in the US and, therefore, bring a ton more fish to online poker. Having the most well known pro win an event like this would be a great argument in favor of poker being a skill game rather than just gambling. Having Soy Nguyen win it would do the exact opposite.

As for who I think will win, either Mizrachi or Duhamel.

BTW, don't rule out Nguyen because he doesn't even know some basic poker concepts. Do you really think he has been doing anything else in the past months other than being coached by some of the best? There's still a lot to say about experience, and Mizrachi has an edge over everyone else in that matter, but Soy will go into that final table well prepared.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

I don't really like any of the last 9, except for Mizrachi and maybe Cheong a bit. Candio comes across as a bit of a douche and I'm hating Duhamel right now lol. Nolan or Racener are 2 of the best there, I reckon.

 

[ph_il]

I hope Cheong wins it.

As for Nguyen, his lack of basic poker knowledge could actually make him quite dangerous. If he is getting any training, I hope it isn't information overload for him that'll affect his game.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Yeah, I know how much I hate playing against people who can't play. Just the other day, I got AK all in after after a pre flop 3 bet on a J 8 4 rainbow board and she calls with AQ because "it's been good for her tonight". Q rivered.

 

[Nujabes]

Playig against people who don't know how to play can be very very hard. Because they aren't playing with the same rules of what a good player is supposed to do in certain situations. This is why some pros always go out on day 1 of the main event because they can't get a feel for the circus of players.

Another thing about the November Nine concept. Do the players spend months studying the opponents at the final table? I know on the ESPN broadcast Norman Chad pointed out that Racener stops chewing his gum when he is behind. Do you think other players will check out that tell and others? Will Racener stop chewing gum now? Interesting questions.

 

[ph_il]

Another thing about the November Nine concept. Do the players spend months studying the opponents at the final table? I know on the ESPN broadcast Norman Chad pointed out that Racener stops chewing his gum when he is behind. Do you think other players will check out that tell and others? Will Racener stop chewing gum now? Interesting questions.

Possibly. However, if Racener is smart, he would think that his opponents saw the footage and picked up on his gum 'tell' and use that to his advantage.

I'd probably try and watch footage of my opponents to see how they play certain hands, how much they bet (compared to pot) in different situations, etc.

 

[balrog910]

I like Cheong, if not for the runner runner straight by Candio then he would be sitting with the chip lead