Luck or Skill

[B1731898]

I've always believed it's 50% skill, and 50% luck. I enjoy the comments, but I don't think there's enough emphasis on skill. So many variations; maximizing pots, trapping, knowing when to bluff, notes on players, analyzing bets, analyzing players, analysis on so many different things, at so many different times. Perception, intuition, logic, percentages, and MOST IMPORTANTLY,...Risk versus Reward.

 

[Vander44]

Ultimately depends on the length of time that you measure your results. In the short term, luck can overcome any skill, but given enough time I think skill will always overwhelm luck in poker.

Phil Hellmuth has infamously stated “If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every time.”

 

[rigor mortis]

This topic has been well discussed in the past. Poker, like all card games, is a game of chance and as such neither luck nor skill comes into it. You are dealt two cards, neither of which you hsve any control over. Whether or not your hand improves after the flop, you have no control over, same with the turn and river. You are no longer master of your own destiny. Which side people believe in is mainly based upon their ezperience and their ego.
odds are not 8/1 to hit a set, more like 25/1

 

[c0rnBr34d]

This topic has been well discussed in the past. Poker, like all card games, is a game of chance and as such neither luck nor skill comes into it. You are dealt two cards, neither of which you hsve any control over. Whether or not your hand improves after the flop, you have no control over, same with the turn and river. You are no longer master of your own destiny. Which side people believe in is mainly based upon their ezperience and their ego.
Odds are not 8/1 to hit a set, more like 25/1

I couldn't disagree with this any more. Odds to flop a set given you hold a pocket pair are indeed 11.8% or about 7.5 to 1. I'm not sure what you are trying to say.

As a player you are correct that you have no control of your hole cards, your opponents cards, or the community cards. But given what you can observe, you can make decisions that have a mathematically measured expected value. Obviously as a game of incomplete information and deception these decisions will not be 100% accurate this is what people are referring to as skill. Recognizing when and how much to bet, when to call, when to fold, those are the things you do have control over. Weaponizing your aggression or disguising your strength based on your observations and incomplete information is what poker is all about. Some players are clearly better at this than others. The fact that you can make the correct decision and still lose is why the game still exists. If the best players had no chance of losing then the weaker players would give up much faster. But over thousands of hands if one player consistently makes better decisions than another player there is no amount of luck that will save them from eventually losing.

To use the pair over pair example in this context consider this. In the AA vs 33 scenario the AA is roughly an 80% favorite. That means for every 4 times you win you will lose once on average. The fact that you go all in and get called and lose one time doesn't really mean much. Repeat that experiment 1,000 times though and tell me how many times the AA lost. Eventually the player with the AA will start to converge around an 80% win rate. The more times you repeat the scenario the less likely the 33 can continue to get lucky and win.

If you're talking about two players of exactly equal skill level then maybe the outcome is random. But that's not what this thread is about.

 

[whitesmoke420]

I think people generally get lucky...… there are a lot of skilled players but when people are shoving preflop with J 2 or Q 5 and winning then its all luck.

 

[ASMautoneJr]

skill skill skill !!!sometimes, when AA and KK come, it is necessary to see position and to count the chips!

 

[Gaviria8]

I'm skill less and unlucky!

 

[Canwai]

55 skill
45 lucky

 

[Lena M]

Hello.
I think that to a greater degree, everything depends on the player's skills. But without a doubt, good results and success also depend on luck. Personally, I always count only on my skills and experience.

 

[vov4ik]

I play according to my skill, but there are situations in my game where luck gives me a chance to win but it isn’t permanent and sometimes there are moments like that, I won’t say to myself that I am a super player, but from rating 10 I play anywhere from 5 7, I mostly play cash games in the game, I don’t really like to play at tournaments because there I need a lot of free time of patience and not the fact that every time I can get into the bonus zone and get prizes with my playing skills, so for My game skill is very good, playing games but I try to make fewer mistakes

 

[GARCIA PABLO DANIEL]

both carry hand the game !!! I think that the two factors are essential !!!

 

[cranberry]

I think that the skill in poker comes to the fore. At long distances, poker is a skill. Luck in poker is applicable for games at short distances (for example, a hyper-turbo tournaments).

 

[eniseysmail]

My opinion is just luck. Skill is basic knowledge.

 

[eyeluvpoker]

Poker is a skill game with some luck involved. Pulling the handle or pushing the button on a slot machine is 100% luck. It is hard to put a percentage on skill vs luck in Poker. I know it is hard to lay down your pocket Aces post flop but I do it a lot based on the situation. If you are just playing poker to get lucky then you are the person who is chasing the gut shot all the way to the river regardless of bet size. Skill will win over luck in the long run. Good luck to all on the tables. Here is hoping PA online poker launches on Monday!!!

 

[Glev Jr]

Poker is more skill than luck. If you play correctly you will not always win but at a distance you will win much more than hope for good luck

 

[antonis32123]

Skill is the mosti mportant factor in poker , that's why there are long term great winners and many many losers , Ofcourse luck can help you on some hands , but for how long without knowledge and skill . If you don't have skill , you cannot manipulate your luck on the long term and profitably :

 

[Marowin]

Skill is one of the major factor which give you edge. Edge in poker is very small between normal player and pro. I see that 80% is luck and 20% is skill. If you play.

If you play a lot of hands u can see this 20% of skill in your bankroll.

Get luck

 

[wagon596]

Skill is important, but to run deep in a tournament you have to ave some good luck in doing so.

 

[kostas1234]

skill and very much luck , i am begining to think poker is like bj

 

[thwenth1983]

Luck or ability?

Certainly skill. One question I asked myself is how can a poker player be profitable in poker? No mystery has to study and practice.
Have you heard of nash table?
Poker is a game of ability, and luck represents a small percentage of the skill.

 

[Riversalmon]

I think it's more luck than skill with how much variency is in Texas holdem. Skill definitely plays a big role, like if I had an edge on my opponent it raises the odds of winning

 

[manzanillo53]

Luck is a major part of poker, if the cards are not with you not much you can do. The skill is knowing how to play good or bad cards. Maximise your winnings with good cards and knowing your opponent to be able to steal a win with bad cards or at least minimise your losses and move on to the next hand. Smartest thing is knowing when it is just not your day and getting out, come back tomorrow.

 

[sanych]

Skill and great distance - the key to success!

 

[Jon Poker]

Luck is certainly a part of the game. Without luck, losing players / fish - there would be no possibility of "professional" players who consistently rack up win numbers. With that in mind - the fact the game has "pro" players - that means it is a skill based game. Those who cannot grasp this concept or further themselves beyond their current level of understanding is what hold them back from being a winning player.

I am not the best but I like my skill level and insight into the game. What I have learned over the course of only 5 or 6 years has certainly helped me play the game better and to understand what to do more in tough spots. When I am playing the game there is a reason for almost everything I do. IE: when I check call, when I lead the turn - when i check call flop and turn and lead the river, and so on and so on. The point is - today rather than just the basic game principle or instinct to call or raise or whatever the action you are taking - now my actions have logic behind them. Knowing my opponents tendencies - the board texture vs their range - what is a bad turn card for their perceived range, etc...it all plays into my decisions now and as a result when I implement my strategy - I win more pots than I used to.

The other side of things is by knowing when my opponent could have missed a draw, is giving the sense they are trying to push off a strong hand - and so on - sometimes making what could be the correct call will cost you $$. It goes both ways but overall the more you know and understand the better decisions you will make.

In summary my knowledge of the game had led me to better decision making and winning more pots / games then I used to and while i may not be the winning-est player to ever sit at a poker table - i have certainly improved over the course of time and will continue to do so as long as I can

 

[manzanillo53]

Luck is certainly a part of the game. Without luck, losing players / fish - there would be no possibility of "professional" players who consistently rack up win numbers. With that in mind - the fact the game has "pro" players - that means it is a skill based game. Those who cannot grasp this concept or further themselves beyond their current level of understanding is what hold them back from being a winning player.

I am not the best but I like my skill level and insight into the game. What I have learned over the course of only 5 or 6 years has certainly helped me play the game better and to understand what to do more in tough spots. When I am playing the game there is a reason for almost everything I do. IE: when I check call, when I lead the turn - when i check call flop and turn and lead the river, and so on and so on. The point is - today rather than just the basic game principle or instinct to call or raise or whatever the action you are taking - now my actions have logic behind them. Knowing my opponents tendencies - the board texture vs their range - what is a bad turn card for their perceived range, etc...it all plays into my decisions now and as a result when I implement my strategy - I win more pots than I used to.

The other side of things is by knowing when my opponent could have missed a draw, is giving the sense they are trying to push off a strong hand - and so on - sometimes making what could be the correct call will cost you $$. It goes both ways but overall the more you know and understand the better decisions you will make.

In summary my knowledge of the game had led me to better decision making and winning more pots / games then I used to and while i may not be the winning-est player to ever sit at a poker table - i have certainly improved over the course of time and will continue to do so as long as I can

Very well stated, I am trying to reach your level of skill, not there yet maybe never will be, but I am ahead in winnings to date so that is a plus. I still make some very bad reads but I am able to build the pot when I have the nuts, so that is keeping my game afloat.