Looking for info on percentages

[ChuckTs]

I thought i saw a thread a long while ago about situational percentages like the ones below
FourDogs thread about prob. of overcards hitting with a pocket pair is a perfect example, but not the one I'm thinking of
(i'm really finding charts helpful for me and am trying to get my hands on every chart possible)


either way, if someone remembers this thread, could they post a link?
if not I have a few % questions i would like info on if anyone knows how to calculate it or knows a chart or something like that with this info on it.

(holdem) probability of:
-you and opponent hitting flush (with both holecards suited)
-opponent(s) hitting the board in 2 - 10 player pots
(^^^i'm curious about this one because i want to know how often steals/continuation bets will work theoretically)
-opponent having a PP if you have one (i heard that if you have a PP then it is more likely that another person would have one - why would that be?)


(omaha) probability of:
-opponent having flush aswell as you
(^^^wondering how often chasing a non-nut flush will actually be a decent play, though i know it is really not suggested)


can't remember anymore right now....kinda half asleep right now; i'll update later if i can remember more

ANY help would be appreciated

-ChuckTs

 

[Sammyv1]

Hey Chuck, Don't know the awswer to your question, sorry. But I'd like to get my hands on your charts also. Could you put em in a thread or p/m me the links?

 

[ChuckTs]

if i find 'em, of course

 

[ChuckTs]

playing OH8 - just remembered some more:
probability that a low will be possible on the board

probability that a low will NOT be possible on the board (HI only board)

 

[Osmann]

I don't know what thread you're talking about, but I do know the answer to your addition about how often low is possible and something about flushes in omaha.

A low is possible for any player between 55% and 69% of the time, depending of how many low cards Hero has.(The more low cards the smaller the chance of a possible low for any player is)
If you don't take hero's hand into consideration a low will be possible 60% of the time.

The chance of a flush in omaha.
That the board allows a flush is: 1 in 2.7
That your 2 suited cards will make a flush: 1 in 14
That your 3 suited cards will make a flush: 1 in 18.5
That your 4 suited cards will make a flush: 1 in 25.5
That any given suited Ace isn't out there: 2 in 3

 

[Osmann]

Tsk, tsk tsk. Shame on you Chuck

I tried doing a search and guess what one of the first threads I saw was https://www.cardschat.com/showthread.php?t=66840&highlight=probabilities

I think this is the one you were looking for.

 

[ChuckTs]

FourDogs thread about prob. of overcards hitting with a pocket pair is a perfect example, but not the one I'm thinking of

thanks for the info osmann that OH stuff helps alot rep +


....though i am a donk - i searched odds in stead of probability and am lazy on top of it all...

 

[ChuckTs]

an old thread on probability of getting pocket pairs (though im really shocked that they say the odds you'll get dealt PPs is only 220 to 1)

[old link~tb]

 

[ChuckTs]

some more i forgot (holdem):
Probability that you'll flop a straight draw with connectors
Probability that you'll flop s flush draw with suited hole cards

 

[Four Dogs]

Chuck, I've got loads of books with this info in them. I'm a chart saver too. I think I know what your looking for. I'll try to post something tonight or this weekend. In the meantime Go to Brian Alspachs web page. There's enough info there to keep a statistics junkie busy for years.

 

[ChuckTs]

great site dogs - thanks for the help

 

[ChuckTs]

Hey FD:
I have a question about Alspach's stuff.
He describes how to calculate flushing boards ie boards that hold a flush possibility (3 of a certain suit or more)
he describes 5 different "types" of flushing boards with (0,0,0,5) and (1,1,1,2) type symbols.
What do these mean?
from what i can figure out, the types should be different combinations of #s of suited cards in your hand combined with the board (2 suited hole cards with 3 suited board cards, or 1 suited hole cards with 4 suited board cards) but don't understand how the symbols relate to the possibilities
do you understand this method he uses? if so could you explain?

 

[Four Dogs]

Each of the numbers above represents the number of cards of a certain suit on a five card board. There are six different ways the board can be set up taking only suits into consideration, only 2 of them cannot result in a possible flush. You will notice that in each case the numbers shown add up to 5, the 5 community cards. A completely suited board, all 5 cards of the same suit, would be represented as (0,0,0,5). It might look like this [Ad][Jd][6d][3d][2d]. This is of course a flushing board or meadow as The Professors friend Bib Ladder calls it. The next 3 types represent only possible flush boards. (0,0,1,4) [5s][Kh][Qh][10h][2h]. Notice that there are 0 clubs, 0 diamonds, 1 spade and 4 hearts. (0,1,1,3) might look like this [3c][3h][9c][Jc][4d] and(0,0,2,3) the last flushing board, could be [6c][10d][Ad][Kc][Qc]. In the next 2 examples no flush is possible (1,1,1,2) [Ah][Ac][Ad][As][Kh] (I'm betting this one anyway)
and (0,1,2,2) [3h][2d][6d][4c][5h] (I'll check here).
It's funny that you asked about this one Chuck. I just read the Flushing Meadow articles last week.

 

[revsin]

CHUCK T RE: Probability of pairs

The odds of getting an exact pair like aces is 220 to 1. The odds of getting any pocket pair is 16/1

 

[ChuckTs]

Another question I have, if anyone knows the answer, is approximately how often do you expect to get a premium OH8 hand.
I know in Holdem that it's supposed to be you get a top 10 hand roughly once in every 20 hands
anyone know what it is in OH8?
i ask this because when i play as tight as i play, it seems like i wait like 40, 50 hands sometimes...

 

[Osmann]

I would estimate that you get a premium hand below 1% of the time, because there are not very many of them. But in order to answer the question we need to know what hands you see as premium hands. You should however receive a decent hand around 20%-25% of the time. So if you feel you are not seeing enough flops, you probably need to lighten up your starting hand seletion a bit.

 

[ChuckTs]

I probably do play too tight, but when i get an A5J9 type hand, i really don't want to invest anything in it unless i get some good reads and know i have the best hand
Especially in PL because i hate playing the dinky check-call down hands; i like to raise and bang at pots, and when i do that i want to be sure i have the best hand - and obviously having a premium hand increases those chances
maybe i'm mixing up my nlhe strategy up with oh8...haven't played in a while