I'm sure you've seen this all before...

M

myxiplx

Rock Star
Apologies to everyone for whom this is just another boring post. I've not been playing long, and have just started turning a profit. I'm on such a high right now I've just got to tell someone.

I've played a grand total of 20 minutes this evening having moved up to the 50c/$1 tables today... and oh boy, I think I'm in love with Empire Poker.

My 6th hand ever at this limit:

#Game No : 5438382292
***** Hand History for Game 5438382292 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, November 15, 13:27:43 ET 2006
Table Table 125412 (No DP) (real money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: karen8220 ( $27.55 )
Seat 4: cmb_G ( $98.50 )
Seat 6: afroman33 ( $88.05 )
Seat 7: monsoon113 ( $81.04 )
Seat 9: mimatadero ( $58.45 )
Seat 10: Pralte ( $142.17 )
Seat 3: myxiplx ( $93.65 )
Seat 8: rumpy222 ( $100 )
Seat 2: stewfy ( $100 )
cmb_G posts small blind [$0.50].
afroman33 posts big blind [$1].
stewfy posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to myxiplx [ As Ah ]
monsoon113 calls [$1]
mimatadero folds
Pralte raises [$5]
karen8220 folds
stewfy folds
myxiplx calls [$5]
cmb_G folds
afroman33 folds
monsoon113 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 5d, 8d ]
xxROSH125xx has joined the table.
Pralte bets [$8]
myxiplx raises [$20]
Pralte is all-In [$129.17]
myxiplx is all-In [$68.65]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
myxiplx shows [ As, Ah ]two pairs, Aces and Eights.
Pralte shows [ Jd, Jc ]two pairs, Jacks and Eights.
Pralte wins $48.52 from side pot #1 with two pairs, Jacks and Eights.
myxiplx wins $187.80 from the main pot with two pairs, Aces and Eights.
Game #5438384915 starts.

And then a little later on during my tea break:

#Game No : 5438457314
***** Hand History for Game 5438457314 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, November 15, 14:05:29 ET 2006
Table Jackpot #1305598 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: sezi1 ( $116.54 )
Seat 2: BellyBoyBoy ( $155.30 )
Seat 3: jonnycarpet ( $162.99 )
Seat 5: kendrax ( $53.40 )
Seat 6: KingAce223 ( $197.31 )
Seat 7: xxROSH125xx ( $101.12 )
Seat 8: blupitbull2 ( $90.46 )
Seat 10: Stingz ( $91 )
Seat 4: myxiplx ( $105.50 )
Seat 9: Hasse50 ( $99 )
jonnycarpet posts small blind [$0.50].
myxiplx posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to myxiplx [ 5c Qc ]
kendrax calls [$1]
KingAce223 folds
xxROSH125xx calls [$1]
blupitbull2 raises [$2]
Hasse50 folds
Stingz folds
BellyBoyBoy folds
jonnycarpet folds
myxiplx calls [$1]
kendrax calls [$1]
xxROSH125xx calls [$1]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, Ah, Tc ]
myxiplx checks
kendrax checks
xxROSH125xx checks
blupitbull2 bets [$3]
myxiplx raises [$9]
kendrax folds
xxROSH125xx calls [$9]
blupitbull2 calls [$6]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
myxiplx checks
xxROSH125xx bets [$25]
blupitbull2 calls [$25]
myxiplx calls [$25]
** Dealing River ** [ 4c ]
myxiplx is all-In [$69.50]
xxROSH125xx is all-In [$65.12]
blupitbull2 folds
myxiplx shows [ 5c, Qc ]a flush, Queen high.
xxROSH125xx doesn't show [ 6s, 6d ]three of a kind, Sixes.
The time at which hand ended:Nov 15 2006 14:07 ET
myxiplx wins $4.38 from side pot #1 with a flush, Queen high.
myxiplx wins $237.24 from the main pot with a flush, Queen high.
Game #5438461674 starts.

For some reason people just don't believe me when I hit good hands ;-)

Myx
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

Cardschat Elite
Congratulations, Myx.

On that second hand, raising on the flop with nothing but a draw was a pretty bold play. A lot of us would have been content to call. Turned out well, though. :)
 
Welly

Welly

Guest
me fears a little blind enthusiasm....but hey, nothing too much wrong with that :) well done.

I would have to say on the first hand the old $5 pre-flop, $68.65 post-flop with only overcards is a little kamikaze (reliant on very weak opposition, which after only 6 hands cant possibly be determined)

2nd hand, you pull a little neg eq in the rawest form (pulling 19.6% at a 22.6% cost with an unclean draw). I hesitate to suggest that naturally you have implied a $17.05 value-bet pay-off (on the most obvious of all scare cards) to justify the call ;) Inspired :)

Possibly a few loses on the horizon, but well done for now :)
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

Cardschat Elite
Nice going, but you're not always going to get AA v JJ and river flush draws. You got away with the second one, but dont make the mistake of thinking you've got it cracked, or you'll lose it back double quick! (and the 2nd hand, I dont think your opponent was wrong calling your all-in, not with the pot the size it was), Well done!
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

Cardschat Elite
Guys, if you`re feeling like some hand analysis, try this one:

[old link~tb]

It`s pretty heavy, and the discussion includes some of our strong players.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
M

myxiplx

Rock Star
Hmm... ok, stuff to think about. Is it possible to move this thread to hand analysis?

Welly, I hear what you're saying, but I was pretty confident with both of these hands. I'll try to explain my reasoning, but everyone, please point out anywhere you feel my thinking is flawed, or that I've missed something.

What the history doesn't show was the timing, and it was that which made me confident of my reads. On the first hand I couldn't be sure of my opponents playstyle, but their stack size implied a solid player and I thought it doubtful they would raise $5 without a solid hand.

With that in mind, the size of the bet after the flop looked to me very much like an overpair or a semi-bluff at the pot with overcards. There was an outside danger of trips but I thought the chance was slim. My raise had two purposes: to find out if they had trips, and hopefully to draw them all in.

I'd have expected trips to think much longer before re-raising (they have to decide whether I'm more likely to call all in, or call another bet on turn & river), whereas an overpair would be quite happy to take down the pot right there. His quick push made me very confident I had him beat. Had he thought before his raise I'd have folded there & then.

On the 2nd you say I have negative ev. Well, I can't argue that my plays were on the loose side right through the hand, but I made a decision at the start to play this flush for a big pot if possible. Bluepitbull2 is in the hand, and already I've seen him make some loose calls right down to the river. My aim was to drive up the value, mis-represent my hand and hope to score a big payout. Personally I think calling here is horrible, it just doesn't give me the implied odds if I do hit a flush, to me it feels like a -ev play.

My initial re-raise was a combination of being ideally placed to thin the field (and eliminate other people chasing a flush), and an attempt to build the pot. I'd have been happy to win the hand here but expected to get a caller. When I got two callers I couldn't have been happier, especially with bluepitbull2 as one of them.

Now at this point I'd much rather see the flush on the turn, I've a 1 in 4 chance of hitting it, and I'm confident that with one caller that my implied odds if it hits are good enough to justify this initial bet.

When I missed on the turn, I was potentially laying the hand down, but I was hoping my earlier raise may make the others more cautious. Rosh125's $25 bet nearly won the hand for them here, but when blupitbull called after thinking for a while the odds were close enough for me to call too. Again, I'm not getting the exact odds here, but I'm confident that at least one of these will call on the river if I hit the flush. They've both shown strength throughout, and neither should put me on the flush right now.

Welly, is this where I'm getting 19.6 at 22.6%? If it is, then my instinctive feel for the odds was closer than I thought. I felt that I had very close to the right odds to chase regardless, and I was very confident of getting a bet on the river, and my river bet is going to be at least as high as the turn bet, probably 50% larger.

As it turned out, against these opponents on the river I quickly pushed all in to make it look like I was attempting to steal the pot. As expected Rosh125 didn't believe I had the flush & quickly called.

Yes, there was a bit of luck in this hand, and I could have lost a fair bit, but to get to the turn I'm only risking $12, and it's still only $37 by the river. With 3 players in the hand my potential payout was huge, and the $237 win easily justifies chasing the flush.

Against better players this probably won't work, but at the moment I'm finding I can draw people in, and while that continues to work I can't see my changing my style. Even if this only works 50% of the time, the implied odds from occasionally having this tactic work pay off the few times it doesn't... (In the back of my mind are the odds of playing a particular strategy in the long term, not just the specific odds for a single hand).

Sorry for the monster of a post, I hope that explains my thinking (and I do hope I don't look completely insane). Comments and criticism greatfully received.

Myx
 
M

myxiplx

Rock Star
How do I find a mod? I can see the members list, but I can't find anywhere that tells me who the mods are.
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
How do I find a mod? I can see the members list, but I can't find anywhere that tells me who the mods are.

juiceeQ and Dorkus Malorkus are the mods. If you sort the member list by post count, you will find them both very near the top and both in bold faced text.
 
Welly

Welly

Guest
I hesitate to suggest that naturally you have implied a $17.05 value-bet pay-off (on the most obvious of all scare cards) to justify the call ;) Inspired :)

hi myxiplx

yep it generally looks fine. This (your reply) is what I am getting at with the above quote. As long as you can imply at least a $17.05 payoff on the river then you can chalk it up as inspired play rather than neq eq. You need to be a little careful though with your all-in, as a fold does mean you've lost the retrospective implied value (which you have relied upon for the +EV) which could be a longer term issue to monitor to make sure the EV averages out ok.

There are a couple of warnings in my original post which are probably worth me repeating in slightly more detail:-
1) on average flush draws should be assigned (more often than not) the least implied value of any draw. the most obvious of scare cards will deaden the payoff value so be a little careful not to over attribute it.
2) be a little careful on implied value with unclean draws, it's a fairly dangerous habit to get into, and generally i classify it as a leak if done regularly.

Welly
 
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