How much do you estimate the luck factor in poker?

[Mimo..Mach]

I don't remember his name but some professional poker player once said: "if this game didn't depend on a significant percentage of luck, I would win every tournament for all my knowledge and strategies" I dare to say a percentage but it is obvious that it will never be a Constant: Above 10%

 

[HungarianBoy]

During longer poker tournaments and I always get to the paying place quite often. but unfortunately, I'm never lucky enough to finally win a bigger amount, because unfortunately I'm unlucky and I'm eliminated almost immediately after a paying place. I don't know why that might be. I probably can't blame that on my luck. I probably still need to learn the right strategy to make much more profit. maybe one day I will win a bigger amount with poker. I will also give you this 10% luck. unfortunately, I also think it's a question of other knowledge.

 

[skrtel348]

During longer poker tournaments and I always get to the paying place quite often. but unfortunately, I'm never lucky enough to finally win a bigger amount, because unfortunately I'm unlucky and I'm eliminated almost immediately after a paying place. I don't know why that might be. I probably can't blame that on my luck. I probably still need to learn the right strategy to make much more profit. maybe one day I will win a bigger amount with poker. I will also give you this 10% luck. unfortunately, I also think it's a question of other knowledge.

it is certainly because you play too tight and with the objective of getting paid.
If you want to finish higher, you have to be more aggressive and take risks. You'll often get eliminated this way before the payouts, but one day it will pay off

 

[oroochimaru]

Without mentioning the timeline, it is challenging to compare the contributions of skill and luck.
If we play one hand of poker, it's clear that the outcome is largely decided by luck. Over very short time periods, poker is almost entirely luck and over very long time periods, it's almost largely skill. Taking use of luck's influence on other players is another option. A streak of bad luck can cause other players to perceive you as a loose or weak player, while a streak of good luck can portray you as a tight or strong player. You can exploit either one to your advantage. You can take advantage of the predictable effects that other players' luck usually has on their play. For example, lucky winners tend to be loose and go for draws, but they can be bluffed, while unlucky losers tend to be tight and play strong hands, but they will reward you handsomely if your hand is stronger.

 

[MrPokerVerse]

For those of you that provided a number, please further explain how you came to that figure? These type of questions always have me wondering just how you can possible know. Maybe it just a lucky guess!

 

[Newzooozooo]

Hello.
I believe that the decisive role in poker is played by the skills of the player. At least I believe that in the long run, skill is more important than luck. Although I do not deny the fact that luck is also a necessary element for success.
Good luck.

 

[zipocool]

at a distance, I think it will be about 70% skill and 30% luck, but in a single tournament, luck can even be in the first place, so everything will be decided by a coinflip won or lost

 

[weezy1312]

it is impossible to quantify how much luck is involved in this game, 20% or 40% or more !!!
think of it this way, luck is an essential thing to poker without it you cant do anything but here is where skills intervene, when you are going through bad luck you will minimize your losses and well you are running good you will capitalize on it and winning the most of it !

 

[Mihail Grinvich]

I believe there is no clear framework on the factors of luck and skill. Each tournament game has an individual combination of luck and skill. One game can be 90% luck, 10% skill. Otherwise, on the contrary.

 

[pavel1111111]

it all depends on your stile of playing ...it could be 20% or 80 % Ș)

 

[yuriko oyama]

just a bond phrase.
James Bond.
It's my bad luck that makes these bastards tear me apart every single day.

 

[sincos]

Done right, poker is a business.

 

[gravii2011]

I think poker has 50% luck and 50% skill in the game, because I can read a player, bluff my opponent, and you have 94% to win a hand, but as usual, your opponent hits two threes on the river and my 96% at the end of 0%.

 

[gravii2011]

There's also someone who just sits with a beer and presses luck and squeezes you with garbage. And you sit and think, subtract and lose with a better hand with a higher% than your opponent's.

 

[odonob]

Probably 80% luck. Without the cards you have very little chance, especially in MTTs. You need the cards for a deep run. You can then use a big stack if you get ahead. Then you need less luck and more ability to read the table.

 

[jonaselloco]

you can manage your luck in poker with the so-called "outs or odds"
In every game luck is needed, but in card games it may be that your luck is greater in possibilities than in another game.
For example, if you play the lottery, you really must be lucky. Over 10,000 numbers you buy 1 ticket and actually winning is like finding a needle in the desert, which does not mean that you have 1 chance to be the big winner.
If you in poker have a hand in which on a river you have only 2 cards that can give you the winning hand, it is simple over 52 cards minus the 4 community cards until the turn minus 2 cards in your hand, this gives the result that in the river you have a chance of 2 out of 46 so your chance of taking the winning card is 4.4%. In other words, the possibility of winning always exists.
You can tell me, yes, but my opponent has a 95.6% chance of winning, and yes you are right, but until the river card is seen, he does not have the winning hand.
That's where the strategy begins, do you let your opponent see the river hand??? Your opponent goes allin, would you pay if you have a chance to walk out of the MTT by losing??? That's why when 2 players go allin preflop the die is cast. Except that in preflop a player has AA that until that moment is 100% likely to win, although statistics say that in 80% of hands you will win with AA in preflop allin, you should always take into account the remaining 20%, That will be your lucky card.
Really friend, your post is very good and it is very difficult to analyze it, because everyone will have different analyzes and that is the beauty of this game, that everyone and no one has the truth.
I leave you an old video that I left a colleague a while ago and analyze in the 5 hands if someone was lucky??? I anticipate you, I think all the hands are well played, but in the 1st if you tell a colleague that you called a 3bet with 89 suited diamonds and won the big hand, he will tell you that you are completely crazy hahahaha.
greetings and blessings friend

 

[tagece]

It depends on the structure and the kind of game. I play almost only tournaments, and in Hyper games you need luck to be in the ITM, cause you need to open the range a lot, and call raises you would never call in regular structures. In regular or even turbo games one can be in ITMs regularly just playing well. But to win a mtt you definitively need to win a lot of coin flips.

 

[DiegoRamos]

Watching a James Bond movie once, I was struck by Daniel Craig's answer when asked if there was a luck factor in poker. He replied, "Only for people who believe that the highest hand wins".

If only it were that simple.

To me, there is still 30% luck in this game. At least.

Otherwise, for a 0% chance, you're better off playing chess.

And you, what do you think?

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In film, everything is flowers ^^
There is indeed the luck factor, but in the long run it is a negligible value.

 

[fernandofcp]

I believe it is half/half, 50% luck and 50% technique. Most of the time, a strong hand can win some chips, but a weak hand that develops during the game and becomes a winner and defeats the opponent, eliminating him from the tournament, happens a lot too.

 

[Whaevoz]

Less than you think, but more than you want.

 

[NDRWTRLGC]

Watching a James Bond movie once, I was struck by Daniel Craig's answer when asked if there was a luck factor in poker. He replied, "Only for people who believe that the highest hand wins".

If only it were that simple.

To me, there is still 30% luck in this game. At least.

Otherwise, for a 0% chance, you're better off playing chess.

And you, what do you think?

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yea that's a pretty accurate statement. what mr Craig said. I take it to mean something like 'luck is absolutely necessary when the only way you win is at showdown. neglecting all the other ways to win when you make your opponents fold the best hand. or when you make a tight fold yourself and thus win yourself chips by not putting them in the middle when you know you are beat.

so yea, luck is relative to your style.

I wouldn't go as far as to give a percentage since that is player dependent based on these arguments.

we make our own luck