D
DoctorPADDO
Rising Star
Bronze Level
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
10k a year, not 10k a week. 200-300 a week comes out to 15k a year. I think ChuckTs posted a graph recently where at 25c/50c blinds he made between 9 and 10k last year. Again, what advantage besides the tiny tiny edges gained from having cards eliminated when calculating odds would you gain by colluding as a team that wouldn't get caught?
Egon Towst
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Yep, 10k a year was Zach`s intent, and he was right. There are several of the regulars here who are at that level or thereabouts just playing recreationally.
So, anyone who needs to cheat to achieve that must be a pathetic player.
jaketrevvor
Legend
Silver Level
So basically Cheetah's just an uber-god. Oh, and CTs graph for December is frankly sexy - hold on let me find a link (or obv check his blog) ...
Here it is: a few posts down - 6.0BB/100!!
Here it is: a few posts down - 6.0BB/100!!
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
So basically Cheetah's just an uber-god. Oh, and CTs graph for December is frankly sexy - hold on let me find a link (or obv check his blog) ...
Here it is: a few posts down - 6.0BB/100!!
That is amazing. That's my goal by the summer, not to be at that point in profit, but to be good enough that I can profit close to that.
But the amazing part isn't the 10k in a year, the amazing part is that's only 16,615 hands. Now that may seem like a lot, but that thread is a video of him 6-tabling. If he played every day of the year (probably not, but read on) that's only 45 hands per day. Even single tabling that's little more than half an hour. And 6-tabling? 8 hands per table? That's just over an average of 10 minutes per day. So sure he probably didn't play 365 days in a the year, but even at once a week that's about an hour per session. I don't know how many tables he usually plays, but even at 1, that's 6 hours a week.
IIRC from his blog he's in school now, but that win rate is more than enough to make a living playing full time. Even if 99% of this was single-tabling, multiply that by 6 to get 36 hours a week (that leaves 4*52 = 208 hours vacation at actually working 40 hours a week, or 5.2 weeks of vacation), that comes out to 60k a year. And then throw in the fact that he probably is multi-tabling, and winning at that rate full time is making 6 figures a year. This is why I question people who say that you have to play at least $10/$20 to make a living at poker. Maybe that's true live, but when you can play multiple tables and play as well as some of the people do here, you don't need to cheat or play high stakes.
Q
quads
Rock Star
Silver Level
Times a team of seven members equals over $100,000.00 a year. I also agree that cheating is pathetic. But, if you're trying to dismiss pro collusion teams, you're being foolish. Unfortunately, it does exist and it's a serious problem. I'd love to see the outcome of anyone playing against a team of four players at your table. Knowing about 8 cards preflop goes way beyond tiny tiny edges.
jaketrevvor
Legend
Silver Level
I think zach's point was based around the premise that if this was done regularly with so many people it would be far too obvious and they would get caught rather quickly, so the edges would indeed be much smaller than this as they cannot cheat to this extent.
Zach I'm slightly confused by your post but let me just reread it and figure out why - it's to do with the period of time which the sample was taken, hold on let me reread it...
okay:
Yep, it totals to around 10k per annum at this rate (19 day sample, $500 profit). But this is, don't forget, a sample for 19 days not the whole year, so the bold is a strange statement... Plz tell me if I'm being an rtard and missing the whole thang (I am v. tired)
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zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
Yes but total doesn't matter. I could say that my job at McDonalds gets me millions of dollars. The whole team of us makes x in a year (I don't actually work there so I can't comment). Each person is making 15k a year, which for doing a job, is not all that great, I think it's around the poverty line.
And each person you add at a table decreases the profit for several reasons (I'm assuming they are better than average players)
1. They all are getting raked
2. If they play at different tables they play 4 times as many hands, thus their edge would have to net them an extra 3 times their individual normal return to be profitable
3. All this without using the traditional collusion techniques of squeeze betting, and unless all players had amazing hands, 8/52 of the cards known isn't all that huge of an advantage (see #2 at the advantage they would have to have to be profitable)
The edges I can see:
1. mentioned above, more knowledge than others
2. small decrease in rake, as if 2 players are in the hand one with a slightly better monster, they can ensure the pot is smaller than would normally happen. Still though, if they do this too much they will get caught. Awful fishy if the nuts checks it down or simply makes a small river value bet every time it's 2 out of 4 people who always happen to sit together
3. Best hand play. I would have all players almost always see a flop, the one who hits it the best plays it (or if they all miss and there's a lot of betting, they all just fold). Two problems with this: one, it's easy to catch. If half the table is seeing 80% of flops and some just happen to fold top pair when someone else hits a set or 2 pair, they know something's going on. Second problem, rake hits them hard if all 4 play every flop.
If they are profitable players, just seems they could make more money on their own playing than playing as a team.
Q
quads
Rock Star
Silver Level
Well zachvac, looks like to me you got this whole online thing figured out. No one cared about bots, multi-accounting, selling accounts to pros late in tournaments, and let's not forget about Absolutes insider scam, until it was brought out into the open. This online poker is just all roses and blue skys.
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
Sorry, I messed up here somewhere. I'm averaging about 80 hands/hour, so I tested that figure, and at 6 BB/100 hands ($6 at those stakes), that's 0.8*6*40*50 = $9,600 per year full time single tabling, no idea where I messed up the math getting 60k. OK, I figured it out, thought he made 10k, but he actually made 1k lol. This still means if he is 6-tabling that full time puts him at $57,600. Not too shabby for $50NL.
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
The burden of proof is on you. I have presented logical problems as to why a collusion team would do better by just going and working on their own. Multiple accounts hurts mainly the poker site, mainly because of bonuses but that's it. Bots hurts no one unless you think a computer can beat you at poker. Absolute was not a scam, it was a security flaw, and then they refused to see when there was actual proof. There is no actual proof that a collusion team can make any kind of profit (at least not that I've seen). The absolute scandal had support behind it. You just have a "well I know it happens, and just remember not everyone is honest" argument. The burden of proof is on you in this argument, until you can prove that not only collusion COULD work, but that it DOES work and is being done now, no one will take your claims seriously. Of course if it could work your best plan would be to start one up on your own. Get a team of your own, collude away, and if it works you know how reluctant us idiots are to accept conspiracy theories. Call me back when you're making 15k a year (even though as mentioned, this is not a lot. In fact it's 5k short of the poverty line for a family of 4. That's right, if you tried to support your family with this, you would also be considered not having enough on your own to actually live).
Cheetah
Visionary
Silver Level
You must be kidding me. Of course collusion can work. You have more information then other players so you can make better decisions. Here is your proof.
I once did it with a friend at play-money tables. We wanted to play good poker, but a maniac kept going all-in preflop too often which is very irritating at play-money tables. So we decided to bust him. I think that site had restrictions how often you can re-load.
We basically sandwitched him when one of us had very good hand, like KK or AA. He calls a raise, my friend raises a little to give me the chance to re-raise a lot. Didn't take very long to bust him.
Whether collusion is wide-spread, is another question. I would like to think that it is not because poker sites have interest to battle it. But of course no one really knows that.
riffpoker
Rock Star
Silver Level
You make it sound like hey ..... only might work at low limits ......no big deal. Seriously, if there were reliable bots (and there are) that could turn a profit even at low limits like $1/2 FL holdem for example, It would be raking in a helluva a lot more on a daily basis than you might think.........prolly more than 70-80% of the players reading this forum by perfect mathamatical play alone. add to that the hours played factor and well.......a virtual money machine.
jaketrevvor
Legend
Silver Level
There are definately a lot of friends around the world who will be IMing whilst playing and then decide on a whim to collude. I think zach's point applied to teams of multiple people who specifically go around together on a regular basis to exploit these edges.
Q
quads
Rock Star
Silver Level
The bottom line here, is to realize and take online poker for what it really is. Find your niche if you could find one, always try to improve, and proceed with caution.
Many more players are losing then winning. Just hope you could get into that small percentage of winners online and stay there. Online is certainly the best place to learn and develop a good game.
Many more players are losing then winning. Just hope you could get into that small percentage of winners online and stay there. Online is certainly the best place to learn and develop a good game.
zachvac
Legend
Silver Level
But it's impossible to do that and not get caught. How suspicious is it when the same two people start this raise war often at the table and the two never reach showdown, one always folds. Now you can imagine what it looks like when pokerstars sees someone with total trash raising and re-raising the exact same person with people trapped in the middle. This is easy to catch and could never be done profitably, because they'd get caught.
N.D.
Visionary
Silver Level
Okay this is just too funny. I love that people are saying that the cheaters could make a lot more money by just playing good poker. I dunno, I think it's kind of obvious they can't play good poker and that's probably why they're cheating in the first place.
No matter, I don't agree with everyone as to what counts as cheating anyway. For instance, I consider an application that tells people when and what actions to take to be cheating. Then again I don't have any respect for people who do use those Apps. Sorry I just don't.
Would someone post a bullet style list of warning signs when people are colluding? I know I get a feeling when things just aren't right. I also know that the little three strikes thing will cut my losses, but at the same time I would like a nifty list for how to spot the colluding that goes beyond just a funny-feeling in my tummy ya know?
No matter, I don't agree with everyone as to what counts as cheating anyway. For instance, I consider an application that tells people when and what actions to take to be cheating. Then again I don't have any respect for people who do use those Apps. Sorry I just don't.
Would someone post a bullet style list of warning signs when people are colluding? I know I get a feeling when things just aren't right. I also know that the little three strikes thing will cut my losses, but at the same time I would like a nifty list for how to spot the colluding that goes beyond just a funny-feeling in my tummy ya know?
R
rmcnally
Rising Star
Bronze Level
There is no way to stop people from communicating while playing poker, via aim, skype, phone etc. but the site should always be on alert for signs of collusion. Just the fact that they may have been communicating with someone, in my opinion, isn't enough to get them kicked off the site, since that will be happening every day.
Cheetah
Visionary
Silver Level
It is not a clear cut where to draw the line. Let me list several levels:
- No knowledge of odds, just plain old poker
- Learn to calculate simple odds
- Use a printed sheet with more complex odds
- Use an application to show you the odds for the hand at play
- Use notes how people play
- Use poker-traker
- Develop an automated strategy, but don't interface with the poker application. Instead manually enter the current hand and look at optimal play.
- Use an application that has good auto-fold strategy so you can play 20 tables.
- Train a low-paid person to fold for you and you only play the good hands
- Develop an almost complete pre-flop strategy so you usually only play post-flop
- Interface a bot with a poker application and let it play most of the time except in difficult situations so you can play 100 tables
- Interface a bot and let it play 100%. Of course if the bot loses, you can't get your money back from it
One could argue that bot-usage is not cheating since no additional information is available to the bot. Clearly this is very different from collusion which is definitely cheating.
The problem of saying that bots are cheating is that the line has to be drawn arbitrarily. Poker sites already have this problem where they allow some applications, and not others and sometimes they change their mind and ban previously "OK" applications.