Like this post above. Not going be able come close to that. See opposite ends of the spectrum in the OP statement. One you know what the expected outcome should be and the other you have no clue how you got there. Yep, wallet is still there.
"Luck comes and goes but knowledge stays forever."
The expected outcome is the calculated risk. If it's positive you should take the risk and if it's negative you shouldn't.
Luck is the end result one way or the other. If it beats the expected outcome that's good luck. If it falls short of the expected outcome that's bad luck.
If you make a decision with an EV of $10 and the end result in only $5 you had bad luck. OTOH if you make a decision with an EV of -$10, which is a bad decision, and then the end result is -$5 you had good luck.
you have to make calculated and strategic movements and luck will always influence the result, doing your job you will have more victories than defeats, luck sometimes in favor others against but the main thing will always be your way of playing
Whether poker is luck or a calculated risk or luck really depends on how you play the game. I've always said luck is the cards that you are dealt and skill is the way you play them. When each hand is dealt, you should be calculating the risk or possible reward of playing those cards. That risk should be calculated before taking action after each card is dealt. Should. That's not to say that every player does. Some players will continue on in hand as long as there is a card in the deck that can possibly help them, without bothering to consider the probability of hitting those cards. These people are not calculating risk. They are relying on luck. I try not to rely on luck. I try to make the best decision after calculating the risk.
None of you seem to understand. I'm not locked in here with all of you. All of you are locked in here with ME!
If calculated risk = positive EV then the greater the number of instances the less "luck" is involved. If you are a 2 to 1 favorite, that is huge, but you still will lose 1 of 3 over the long haul. It is very conceivable that over the short term you could lose more than you should to variance. So while long term it is profitable, you are still mathematically supposed to get run down sometimes. So, if you are an occasional player who plays just for fun and doesn't care to study, I say gamble if it's what you do. You may win, but long term you will feed the poker community, which is greatly appreciated..
If you are not lazy and take your statistics for a long period of time, then your numbers will not differ from the average statistical. So luck is just a nice addition. Everything else is probability theory (mathematics).
Nothing is over until it's over. But it looks like we missed the end.
Notwithstanding a long arc for perspective, the two are equally weighted. In the longer term skill and sensible play will out (or rather should out).
I just played a session which was short and sweet (well bitter sweet). I was in a light mood which helped with the thrashing I received. In four tourneys I was being dealt rags and then would receive a strong hand.Every single hand I played ran into the nuts or was rivered in a ludicrous manner. Four tournaments four busts with barely a single winning hand.
It would not matter if it had been me or a top pro playing the hands. It was a laughable run of poor luck. However, when I run good I also accept that this is just what it is, run good. Quite often, play has little to do with my skills.
I try to drop the ego on the good days and recognize the difference between running well and playing well. For some extended period I have thought any given session is a coin toss.
So at this point luck and skill are evenly weighted with skill hopefully giving us the edge in the longer term.
It is much more risk calculated than luck, of course, luckily there is also a lot of participation, but with tactics and strategies you can compensate with respect to risk and achieve a balance that allows you to advance more than others that only depend on luck.