Why you DON'T slowplay small sets

[gord962]

Please don't laugh at the limit, I am trying to build a BR from a $5 FR win. I am now over $15 after only 30 minutes played at .02/.04.

I know I should have raised the turn but I didn't want to give away that I had hit my flush

Game # 455187158 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0.02/0.04 - Table "Maarssen"
Players(max 6):
icexox (EUR 4.19 in seat 1)
gord962 (EUR 2.54 in seat 2)
FEDOT (EUR 1.22 in seat 3)
fitzw3 (EUR 2.74 in seat 4)
yinisi (EUR 2.04 in seat 5)
berghet (EUR 1.93 in seat 6)
Dealer: fitzw3
Small Blind: yinisi (0.02)
Big Blind: berghet (0.04)
gord962 was dealt: Ts - As
icexox Fold
gord962 Raise (0.12)
FEDOT Fold
fitzw3 Call (0.12)
yinisi Call (0.10)
berghet Call (0.08)
Flop 6s - 2s - 2d
yinisi Check
berghet Check
gord962 Bet (0.25)
fitzw3 Call (0.25)
yinisi Call (0.25)
berghet Fold
Turn 6s - 2s - 2d - 7s
yinisi Bet (0.20)
gord962 Call (0.20)
fitzw3 Call (0.20)
River 6s - 2s - 2d - 7s - Td
yinisi Bet (0.11)
gord962 All-In (1.97)
fitzw3 Fold
yinisi All-In (1.36)
gord962 Payback (0.50)
gord962 shows: Ts - As (a flush, ace high)
yinisi shows: Ac - 2c (three of a kind, deuces)
gord962 wins: EUR 4.57 (with a flush, ace high)
Rake: EUR 0.20

 

[KerouacsDog]

nice win, Gord, well played. Funny thing is, these guys keep popping up on those 2c/4c tables, yinisi, FEDOT, etc, I think all of us cc-ers at costa have taken them down one time or another.

 

[Stick66]

NOW YOU TELL ME!!! Slap me, please!!!


fulltiltpoker Game #1183411512: Table Town Center - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:36:44 ET - 2006/11/02
Seat 1: dcanz ($9.50)
Seat 2: Count Scoopula ($4)
Seat 3: rgoose ($9.85)
Seat 4: Lester Cousins ($5)
Seat 5: ronrap1 ($4.85)
Seat 6: Yokell ($18.10)
Seat 7: MrSticker ($13.45)
Seat 8: Willsie83 ($1.70)
Seat 9: nocsious ($3.90)
MrSticker posts the small blind of $0.05
Willsie83 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSticker [5s 5d]
nocsious folds
dcanz folds
rgoose calls $0.10
Lester Cousins folds
ronrap1 folds
Yokell folds
MrSticker calls $0.05
Willsie83 checks
*** FLOP *** [5c As 2h]
MrSticker checks
Willsie83 checks
rgoose checks
*** TURN *** [5c As 2h] [8d]
MrSticker checks
Willsie83 bets $0.10
rgoose calls $0.10
MrSticker calls $0.10
*** RIVER *** [5c As 2h 8d] [4c]
MrSticker checks
Willsie83 bets $0.60
rgoose calls $0.60
MrSticker calls $0.60
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Willsie83 shows [7c Ah] (a pair of Aces)
rgoose shows [3s 9s] (a straight, Five high)
MrSticker mucks
rgoose wins the pot ($2.20) with a straight, Five high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2.40 | Rake $0.20
Board: [5c As 2h 8d 4c]
Seat 1: dcanz didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Count Scoopula is sitting out
Seat 3: rgoose showed [3s 9s] and won ($2.20) with a straight, Five high
Seat 4: Lester Cousins didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: ronrap1 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Yokell (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: MrSticker (small blind) mucked [5s 5d] - three of a kind, Fives
Seat 8: Willsie83 (big blind) showed [7c Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 9: nocsious didn't bet (folded)

 

[KerouacsDog]

ouch Mr.Sticker, but you should have bet that flop, I doubt if Mr. 3s9s would have folded, but you never know.

 

[Egon Towst]

Gord`s hand is typical of these micro-limit games at CDP. You raise pre-flop and get 3 callers in a 6 man game. Just can`t shake these guys off. Bet you some of them had total trash.

It`s great when you hit, but a real bitch when they do.

 

[Bombjack]

Would this thread have been titled "why you DON'T slow play a flush on a paired board" if he'd hit his full house on the river? Seriously, raise that turn baby.

 

[Four Dogs]

Due to the possible flush, the 2 players in, and the fact that you had already bet, I would have bet out on the flop if I were him. However, I've noticed that people tend to be more critical of opponents who slow play trips or 2 pair then they are of those who slow play a flush or a straight.

The interesting thing about this hand is that you both took turns slowplaying your monsters. It's important to remember that straights and flushes (even nut flushes) are not bullet proof. Just as any suited flop is dangerous, so is a paired one. In this case, you gave him better odds to draw out on you with a FH than he gave you with the flush, 4:1 to about 5:1.

It could have been worse too. If his set were hidden, say he had a pocket pair, and the board was something like [3d 2s 6s 7s], he would have been only a 3:1 underdog to draw out on you with just the river to come.

At that limit, I doubt any of that was going through his mind, I'm not saying you played the hand poorly, but you both took some risks. Fortunately it payed off for you and not him. We all tend to overlook the fact that sets and to a lesser degree 2 pair, also have drawing potential.

 

[gord962]

Like I said, I'm not disagreeing I didn't play this as well as it could have been - I stated that at the beginning that I made a mistake of not raising the turn. I start thinking FH as soon as the board pairs in any situation, so that was a concern from the flop. But, if anyone would have hit their FH they would have pushed and me betting wouldn't have scared off yinishi. What would have happened is fitzx3 would have folded and I would have lost his money. There was never a doubt yinishi was going to put all his money in by the river if he had a decent hand. It is simply indicative of the play at this site.

If this was a $1/$2 table at pokerstars, you can believe this would have been played MUCH differently, although everyone would have folded to my PF raise so there wouldn't have even been this discussion!!

 

[t1riel]

You shouldn't slowplay sets unless there are no flush or straight possiblities. Hey, anybody know the odds of any given flop that would have a striaght and/or flush possiblity. It would be intresting to find out.

 

[Bombjack]

I suppose you mean the chances of there being 2 of one suit for a flush draw, or a possible straight on the turn.

If there's no pair on the board:
the chances of there being 2 of one suit varies very slightly depending on whether your own cards are suited, but ignoring your hole cards it's
1-((39/51)*(26/50)) = 60%

Pretty much ANY flop gives a possible straight draw, for example ANY flop containing an Ace. E.g. A-6-10 is a straight draw for 7-8.

Harder to think of ones that don't... there are only a few like 2-7-K, 2-7-Q, 3-8-K, 2-8-K... in fact I think it's only those four.

So for no pair it's about 99%.

Of course if there is a pair on the board the chances of straight / flush draws go down. With a pair, the chance the third card is the same suit as the first two is 24/50 = 48%.

There will be a straight draw whenever there's less than a 4-gap between the pair and the other card, e.g. 8-8-Q gives a straight draw for J-10, but 8-8-K doesn't. Difficult to work out but it's probably around 50% of the time.

Adding these together, there's a straight or flush draw on about 75% of the time if the board's paired.

The chances of your opponent actually holding the right cards to make these draws, however, is a lot lower. About 1 in 20 that each opponent has a flush draw if there's 2 of one suit on the board. Straight draw - too complicated to work out (!) but pretty unlikely.

 

[mrsnake3695]

Bomjack, please don't get me wrong, your math is excellent and I read alot of your post and you are very smart, especially about odds and possibilities, etc.

I just have one disagreement with you here and some of your other posts. I have found that a huge number of players, especially newer players, love to play any 2 suited cards. I know the odds, but so many players play against the correct odds that the chances that a given opponent has a flush with 3 flush cards on the board or a flush draw with 2 is alot higher than you pure odds. Even more so at the lower stakes. I think this needs to be factored in here when making decisions. If I have the best hand but see 2 suited cards on the board, I am less concerned about possibly chasing away a hand that I want to stay then I am of not giving the flush draw the correct odds to chase. Therefore, I would tend to bet higher with the flush draw or obvious straight draw on the board. If someone has TPTK or something to your set chances are he will call you down anyway, so I'm not that worried about losing him.

I almost never slow play sets anymore. I think we all try to be too tricky sometimes and forget some of the basics, like never give free cards. Better to win a small pot than lose a large one. Sometimes you have to take some chances of course but I want someone chasing my set with anything to be making a mistake every time they call. If I bet and the correctly fold then more power to them. But if I check or make a small bet and they correctly (given the odds) hit their flush or straight then that's all my fault and not a mistake on their part but on mine. There is a lower chance of you making a mistake if you bet out with your set then if you slow play and allow someone to overtake you for free.

Anyway, to go back to what I was originally saying, I think we need to factor in how people really play (as opposed to the way we think they should play), when considering the flush or straight possibilities.