What If...

[t1riel]

O.K. here's a scenario:

What if you at the final table of a live tournament. The Top 3 winners get paid as follows:

1st place: $1000
2nd place: $700
3rd place: $300

There are five players left. You are the big blind. You have $5,000 in chips left(after the big blind) and the blinds are $1000/$2000. Three other players all have exactly $5,000. One player is the chip leader with $20,000 and he's the dealer. The player on your left goes all-in with $5000. The next player goes all in with $5000. The chip leader folds. The small blind goes all-in with $5000. You lloma t your hand and its K, Q suited. Do you call and risk not placing in the pay out ranking but try to triple your stack, guaranteed 2nd place or do you fold and you're guaranteed 3rd place (providing its not a split pot) with no risk? :hmmmm:

 

[IrishDave]

Personally, I lay it down for a couple of reasons. First KQ suited isn't that great a hand with 3 people allin in front of you. Next, by folding your guaranteed a spot in the money. And last, while you'll be facing 2 large chip stacks (assuming no split pot) you're still in the game with a shot at the prize. I'm probably more conservative than most but I have no doubt how I'd play this one...

 

[colin_147]

This is a fold all day long. Let them fight it out and wait for your turn. Even A-rag goes in ahead againt you here. The fact you have the option here is great.

You would be in terrible shape if you was UTG and went all in, only to get called by 2 players.

KQ looks great but it really isnt, especially in a 4-way pot.

 

[gordo30]

yeh you gotta fold it mainly because of the three all ins and if they all have some of your outs then by folding your safe to make the paid places.plus folding K & Q your probably gonna help the guy playing pkt 10s or so.

 

[twizzybop]

K,Q is like the 15th worst starting pre-flop hand.. simple fold here.

 

[titans4ever]

I want to make sure I understand this:
1) You have 7k total, you have 5k left after paying the BB of 2k.
2) All but the big stack have gone in for a total of 15k +2k (your BB)=17k in the pot.
3) It will cost you 3k in chips to win 17k. You will still have 2k left after calling. (I think you wanted the situation to be that you had to go all in to call in this situation so you should only have 3k left after paying the BB.)

Outcomes:
1) You lose. You are still in 3rd position (in money) and have only 2k left in chips and are very short stacked.
2) You win. You are chip leader with 22k in chips and have a decent chance to win the tournament outright.
3 You fold. You are in 3rd place with 5k in chips and are still short stacked and in 3rd positions.

I don't see much difference between option 1 and 3. Pot odds are there for you to call with just about anything. I throw my 3k in chips in and lets see the flop.

If you want the decision to be based that you had to go all in to call. I would still call, if 3 of you go out with the exact same chip count, you should split 3rd place 3 ways(gentlemanly thing to do). You should still get $33 back, probably close to your entry fee. If you won the hand, you would be tied for the big stack and have a good chance to make 2nd or 1st.

 

[trentonlf]

can see both sides, but agree with gf more. Early on in a tourney i would fold QK suited with 3 all ins in front of me, not a great hand to go all in with, but this late and having the pot odds you do i would call and hope to get a little lucky

g/l

 

[titans4ever]

Sorry, I screwed up on the previous post, you should get $100 for splitting third.

Here is the real answer assuming you are all equally good poker players. You need to do some serious math to see what is better long run for tournament poker since there is more money for finishing first than second or third.


Base this situation on 40 tournaments (makes the math easier).

Fold
You will finish in the money 40 times. You will have 5k of about 45k in chips. Stalansky says you will win a percentage of the time relative to your stack size (here it is 1:9 of total chips). Out of 10 tournament you will win 1, and I will assume 2nd once. Prize money for all 40 tournaments is 4 first + 4 second + 32 thirds = 1000(4) + 700(4) + 300(32) = 4000+2800+9600= $16,400


Call and you are all in.
You will still finish in the money 40 times. With the 4 players all in lets just assume you have a even 25% to win this hand. You will win this hand 10 out of the 40 times you play it. You will split 3rd 3 ways 30 times. The ten times you win you have a slight chip advantage over the other player (about 6:4 of total chips). So in the 10 times you win you will take first 6 times and 2nd 4 times. Prize money for all 40 tournamens is 6 first + 4 second + 30 third (split 3 ways) = 1000(6) + 700(4) + 100(30) = 6000+2800+3000= $11,800


Call and you still have 2k in chips.
You will still finish in the money 40 times. With the 4 players all in lets just assume you have a even 25% to win this hand. You will win this hand 10 out of the 40 times you play it. The ten times you win you have a slight chip advantage over the other player (about 6:4 of total chips). So in the 10 times you win you will take first 6 times and 2nd 4 times same as before. The 30 times you lose you have 2k left (1:22 of total chips) which would get you first once, second once and 3rd 28 times approximately. Prize money for all 40 tournamens is 7 first + 5 second + 28 third = 1000(7) + 700(5) + 300(28) = 7000+3500+8400= $18,900

Those are the long run percentages for the three ways it could be played out.

I said if I had 2k left according to the original post, I was right in making the call in the long run. If put all in preflop, you are better off folding and playing short stacked.

Love this thread. I am very analytical. I love to do the math afterward to see if plays like this are correct or not.

I had a situation like this last week in a live game and I thought it was a close call to do it, when I got done I was shocked at what a mistake it would have been not to call in a simular situation.

You may only have a slight chance at winning the hand but you have to look at tournament outcomes since there is such a big difference in money based on how you finish, 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc.

Did the first post at work, and did the math when I got home and had alittle bit of time.

 

[StackThemUp]

Hi All,
Whilst that is a very good post pokerfan, i honestly think no one is going to work all that out during the hand in question especially live. I would fold all day long and would probably even fold QQ here. Yes you should try to play to win but even AA against 3 other players is only 66% (and thats against 3 random hands worked out on pokerstove). I would fold as i believe folding would increase your equity here. Nice thread though and nice job on the math pokerfan.

John

 

[robwhufc]

If T1riel's post is interpreted literally as pokerfan did, then I agree with him - it's a must call. If you lose, you're 3rd and if you win you've got a fighting shot at win. If you fold instead, you'd have 5,000 instead of 2,000, but would have 3,000 worth of blinds in next 3 hands, so you will need to go all in again almost immediately, so you've not gained an awful lot. I would take the shot there and then - maybe you're drawing dead, but I would reckon you'd be ahead of 2 of the 3 at the moment - those stack sizes and blind sizes, everyone (apart from Big stack) is desperate.

If you only had 3,000 chips left and hand to put them all in (so would bust out if losing) which I think is what T1riel had invisioned, then I would fold definately.

 

[colin_147]

I can see the theory in this but realistically you would NEVER be in this position, late stages of a tourney the chips stacks would be a lot bigger and its unlikely all these guys would wanna go into a crapshoot situation with each other

 

[titans4ever]

I would never expect someone to do that type of math at the table, I don't even come close to doing odds.

It helps to do it later and analyse the situation to see what the correct play would be. Strange things happen in poker and you may end up in a situation close to it and have to make a call like this.

To answer Colin. I play in a turbo league with 40 people once a week and the final table can be very simular in situations. 2000/4000 blinds and most of the table between 5-25k in chips. Blinds are fast so I have seen situations simular but not having 3 go all in with same stack size.

Are you not at least a little bit smarter for seeing this thread?

 

[colin_147]

Are you not at least a little bit smarter for seeing this thread?

You mean I am a little smarter because you explained the math that so many of us work out in a few seconds? No. The question in the original post was "would you call"? We all know the pot odds and what position you might be in but we was asked our opinion I suppose its possible with so few players in a turbo that the blinds could be this high and chip stacks so low but REALISTICALLY, a lot of players dont play 4 x 10 table turbo's on a regular basis. The fact you do probably puts you in a better position to answer the orignal question than most

 

[t1riel]

Actually, I did mean you have $5k total, meaning if you call, you are all in. Sorry about that. I was carefully constructing this scenario and i must of calculated wrong. Nice answers by the way. I didn't think this post would have many replies (judging by my other posts). Thanks! :hello:

 

[osirisdean]

Actually, I did mean you have $5k total, meaning if you call, you are all in. Sorry about that. I was carefully constructing this scenario and i must of calculated wrong. Nice answers by the way. I didn't think this post would have many replies (judging by my other posts). Thanks! :hello:

in that case, it's an easy fold, for reasons mentioned above. if you go all-in, you are probably at *best* a 30% favorite to win the pot... and youre probably a lot worse off than that since the kind of hand it takes to call an all-in (and another all-in on top) like that is probably AA, KK, QQ, or AK. those hands have you dominated. so youre probably looking at much worse odds.

by simply not playing, you automatically win money. that's a no brainer.

in the other situation (ie, by calling you still have a guaranteed 2000 chips left), it's also an easy decision, with the opposite outcome. you are still guaranteed 3rd, whether you play the hand or not. in order to get better than third place, you either need more chips or a LOT of luck doubling on the big stack. this is the perfect time to get all your money in and cross your fingers. if you win, youre in good shape to get 2nd or 1st. if you lose, you still get a guaranteed third. no lose situation.