I think the answers reveal in the above pretty well.
The guy raises pre-flop with Aces against a guy who will call with any two cards. GREAT.
The board lands fairly dry. Aces bets half pot... well I'm not sure I like that. If I thought my opponent might by calling conservatively I wouldn't mind it. A conservative player with over cards might peel thinking our guy is c-betting with AK/AQ/AJ/99, something there's still value against. BUT against this kind of player Aces is almost ALWAY ahead. The only
hands ahead are hole cards are T2, T7, 22, and maybe 77. But let's be real - even aggro fish are folding 72, and they're very likely 3-betting TT, and there's about 50/50 they're 3-betting 77.
So with Aces, I would know I'm very very likely ahead. AND I know if this guy has any ten he's going to call a big bet. If he has over cards or a pocket pair, he will likely call a big raise. If he has a 7, if he 89, even if he has a 2, he might call off a big raise (89 assuredly would, these guys LOVE chasing straights and flushes). So I'm betting pot sized AT LEAST.
Now, a Jack hits on the turn. That puts a couple other scary prospects in play - J10 got there, 89 got there, J7, J2, T7, 22, T2. So there's seven reasonable hands that are beating us. Now what else would call a big bet here? Any KQ, KJ, QJ, J9, K10, Q10, A10, and any pair with a diamond draw. About ten-twelve pockets (I'm not multiplying the combinations since it about evens out). So by betting big on the flop and betting big on the turn, we're say about 66/33 favorite against his range, and we have outs against all of his range that's ahead except 89.
Now, it's a somewhat tricky spot if the guy is really a maniac. Because unless we hit an ace or the board pairs we're looking to most likely check-call the river following this line. But there is that chance that this player will bet monstrously on the river following a check. And it's fair to say that it's not usually a
bluff here because the pair-with-diamond draw combo will most likely check back or bet half-pot to pot size for value. He'd have to have our guy on a better hand to turn his hand into a bluff, and he's just not that smart. The only other bluffs are missed diamond draws with no pair, and how many of those really got this far? Not many.
So the moral of that long long post is that the optimal line is generally betting LARGE for value. If you break down his range, we ARE in fact ahead until the river. 2/3 times we have the best hand on the turn, and of those 2 times our villain will only catch their river 10% of the time. So with no real read at all we're above a 50% favorite to win the hand. That's WITH the guy calling big bets.
If we can narrow the range down a bit more we can easily tip those
odds even MORE favorably. AND think of the implied value if he had J10 and another 2 showed up on the river!
While these players can be tough because they just call the shit out of you and will get lucky, they're actually just little piggie banks waiting to give you their money. Don't be scared, be excited!!
