tomix
Rising Star
Silver Level
I had some time, so i spent it writing a simple program to simulate 10-seat SNG games.
I took ten "players" and forced them either go allin or fold every hand. Each player had the relative chances of wining the hand according to their number. Eg. if players 2nd and 9th went allin, they would have 2/9 odds to win the hand accordingly. Player numbered 0 had no chances to win any hand and he only made a few ITMs after folding to a paid place. Payout was based on a a standard 50/30/20 structure with the buyin of 11.
Here are the results of 100K games. More explanations below.
0: -$91977 ITM: 3% ROI: -91% WORST SWING: -91976 BEST SWING: 5 MAXBR: 0
1: -$79033 ITM: 9% ROI: -79% WORST SWING: -79032 BEST SWING: 6 MAXBR: 0
2: -$62504 ITM: 16% ROI: -62% WORST SWING: -62503 BEST SWING: 11 MAXBR: 0
3: -$43905 ITM: 22% ROI: -43% WORST SWING: -43910 BEST SWING: 19 MAXBR: 0
4: -$22540 ITM: 28% ROI: -22% WORST SWING: -22548 BEST SWING: 31 MAXBR: 4
5: -$710 ITM: 34% ROI: 0% WORST SWING: -895 BEST SWING: 280 MAXBR: 114
6: $20408 ITM: 39% ROI: 20% WORST SWING: -42 BEST SWING: 20412 MAXBR: 20409
7: $42609 ITM: 44% ROI: 42% WORST SWING: -26 BEST SWING: 42611 MAXBR: 42611
8: $63080 ITM: 48% ROI: 63% WORST SWING: -21 BEST SWING: 63084 MAXBR: 63082
9: $83664 ITM: 52% ROI: 83% WORST SWING: -18 BEST SWING: 83666 MAXBR: 83666
The swings were calculated by finding the biggest difference in bankroll over the session. Eg. if a player reached +1000 buyins and the went down to 920 buyins before reaching 1000 again, his worst swing would be -80.
The interesting thing is player #4 having a ROI of -22% has never made more than +31 buyin profit before coming back down. So, if you're able to make more than +31 buyins before coming back to where you were - you're at least doing better than -22% ROI.
Player #6 has never had a downswing of more than -42 buyins before recovering. If you ever lose that much, be aware you might be doing not so well as you could hope.
Player #9 had a downswing of -18 buyins even though he was getting 83% ROI.
As you may notice the difference in downswings between #6 and #9 is not so huge, i guess this means SNGs provide a pretty stable income for the winning players even if you cannot achieve an astronomic ROI.
And one more thing we can notice, there is no need for a huge sample before deciding if you are making profit (unless you are extremely close to breaking even). The player #4 had a maximum up-swing of 31 buyin, so i guess if you are doing well after some 100 SNGs, you can be pretty sure you are not losing in the long run.
Any comments/ideas welcome.
EDIT: BTW, make a notice how even the slightest increase in ITM% affects your ROI.
I took ten "players" and forced them either go allin or fold every hand. Each player had the relative chances of wining the hand according to their number. Eg. if players 2nd and 9th went allin, they would have 2/9 odds to win the hand accordingly. Player numbered 0 had no chances to win any hand and he only made a few ITMs after folding to a paid place. Payout was based on a a standard 50/30/20 structure with the buyin of 11.
Here are the results of 100K games. More explanations below.
0: -$91977 ITM: 3% ROI: -91% WORST SWING: -91976 BEST SWING: 5 MAXBR: 0
1: -$79033 ITM: 9% ROI: -79% WORST SWING: -79032 BEST SWING: 6 MAXBR: 0
2: -$62504 ITM: 16% ROI: -62% WORST SWING: -62503 BEST SWING: 11 MAXBR: 0
3: -$43905 ITM: 22% ROI: -43% WORST SWING: -43910 BEST SWING: 19 MAXBR: 0
4: -$22540 ITM: 28% ROI: -22% WORST SWING: -22548 BEST SWING: 31 MAXBR: 4
5: -$710 ITM: 34% ROI: 0% WORST SWING: -895 BEST SWING: 280 MAXBR: 114
6: $20408 ITM: 39% ROI: 20% WORST SWING: -42 BEST SWING: 20412 MAXBR: 20409
7: $42609 ITM: 44% ROI: 42% WORST SWING: -26 BEST SWING: 42611 MAXBR: 42611
8: $63080 ITM: 48% ROI: 63% WORST SWING: -21 BEST SWING: 63084 MAXBR: 63082
9: $83664 ITM: 52% ROI: 83% WORST SWING: -18 BEST SWING: 83666 MAXBR: 83666
The swings were calculated by finding the biggest difference in bankroll over the session. Eg. if a player reached +1000 buyins and the went down to 920 buyins before reaching 1000 again, his worst swing would be -80.
The interesting thing is player #4 having a ROI of -22% has never made more than +31 buyin profit before coming back down. So, if you're able to make more than +31 buyins before coming back to where you were - you're at least doing better than -22% ROI.
Player #6 has never had a downswing of more than -42 buyins before recovering. If you ever lose that much, be aware you might be doing not so well as you could hope.
Player #9 had a downswing of -18 buyins even though he was getting 83% ROI.
As you may notice the difference in downswings between #6 and #9 is not so huge, i guess this means SNGs provide a pretty stable income for the winning players even if you cannot achieve an astronomic ROI.
And one more thing we can notice, there is no need for a huge sample before deciding if you are making profit (unless you are extremely close to breaking even). The player #4 had a maximum up-swing of 31 buyin, so i guess if you are doing well after some 100 SNGs, you can be pretty sure you are not losing in the long run.
Any comments/ideas welcome.
EDIT: BTW, make a notice how even the slightest increase in ITM% affects your ROI.