poker intuition test

[Bill_Hollorian]

Limit holdem...
You see 99 utg, and raise. assume your distribution for this raise is AA-99, AK,AQ and AJs.

You get rasised from late middle from a guy whom you beleive will make this re-raise with this distribution of hands. AA-TT, AK, AQs.

The flop is A, 7, 2 rainbow.ignoring set possibilities, your opponents actions here you predict as follows.

> If you check he will bet all hands in his distribution.
> If you bet the flop, he will call with all hands in his distribution.
> If you check raise the flop he will call the check raise with all hands.

What is your plan and why? What is the best choice from above and what is the worst in your opinion?

Enjoy,

Bill H.

I chose this for a few reasons. Limit is easier to isolate situations, which is good for discussion.

It exposes poker intuition and logic that may or may not be flawed.

 

[Debi]

Sorry - really want to understand this and don't mean to sound stupid. What does this mean?

assume your distribution for this raise is AA-99, AK,AQ and AJs.

 

[Stefanicov]

Sorry - really want to understand this and don't mean to sound stupid. What does this mean?

assume your distribution for this raise is AA-99, AK,AQ and AJs.

^^^^^
the hnds others will put you on

i think feel free to overule

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

The hand distributions are the hands that you may hold when you raise.
99 is what you have, but when you raise your opponent may think you have any of the hands in the distribution. same goes or when your opponent re raises. He could hold any of the hands in his list, because he will make the reraise with any of those hands.

Anyway the point of this is to just guess,
should you
bet out,
check fold,
check call,
check raise,

take a guess, and explain why you igure it is the best thing to do.

Bill H.

 

[F Paulsson]

Given the read that you're presenting, I quietly check and fold. We're behind to every single hand in his range, and unless we have some serious meta-game advantage to reap (or sow) I have no reason to believe I can make up for putting in a bet on this flop with less than 8% equity.

This is without doing any math on the problem, but you did ask for intuitive answer, so there.

Edit: I should add that if I was hell-bent on playing this hand, I'd checkraise the flop and bet/fold the turn since some of the time I'll make him fold TT-KK, but I'd need a read that this player is is capable of folding a big PP against aggression on an A-high board.

 

[F Paulsson]

It's been suggested to me that Bill's question may have intended for me to assume that our opponent knows our exact range, which was an interpretation I didn't make originally. In that case - where we can count on him knowing exactly which hands we raise UTG with - the c/r flop, b/f turn play becomes a lot more viable if he respects us. It's not a play that we should make every time, but probably half the time. If we've recently been caught bluffing, this is not a good time to make the play. If we've only shown down solid hands, this may be a good time to try it.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well all this is true %100 of the time:

> If you check he will bet all hands in his distribution.
> If you bet the flop, he will call with all hands in his distribution.
> If you check raise the flop he will call the check raise with all hands.

...then there's no point in continuing unless we can make him fold on the turn. If he's going to continue with his hand regardless what we do, then there's no point putting in our money when we're behind every hand in his distribution.

We should be check-folding. If we can consider the turn aswell (as a possibility for a second bullet) then maybe a check-raise might be best followed by a big bet on the turn to possibly make him fold, but I don't like making this play unless he's going to respect it with KK-TT hands and possibly AQ.

 

[dj11]

I like F Paulssons replys.
If it were early and I was ahead of average in chips I might persue this semi-agressively but at low levels it could prove profitable. At later levels even with a larger than average stack I would be very cautious.
Position is something I am finally coming to grips with, and realizing that it is a double edge sword. Later position offering lesser hands, are we sure of the distribution we put him on?
The 'If he respects us" comment may hit the nail right on the head.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

***************The spoiler***************

Usually the first thing realized is that you are not even ahead of his range of hands, and are drawing to only 2 outs.
But, when you compare the equities of the differnet strategies a different answer is revealed.
Here is the frequency of the hands he holds

AA = 3/42
KK,QQ,JJ,TT = 6/42
AK = 12/42
AQs = 3/42

A few strategies.
> Check folding the flop
> Check calling the flop and check raising the turn giving up when opponent pushes back
> Check Raising the flop, playing the turn aggressively, giving up when opponent pushes back
> Betting out the flop and turn.

Check folding 0 EV
check calling 0 EV
check raising 3.71 EV
Betting out .21 EV

The interesting point is the intuitive answer is the most wrong. As FPaulson states the check rase is the way to continue.

2 questions:
1.) Can any one show the math above to get the equities of the differnet strategies?

2.) Are anyones instincts causing them to give up to easily on flops?

Credit to Bill Chen

Thanks

Bill H.

 

[duatao]

odds

ya bet and take the 34%+ chance that you will win-- D

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

BillH and FPaul, can I ask you guys a question? At what stakes are you playing your limit at? The reason I'm asking is it seems that at low levels the rules just don't seem to apply. Players at the low levels call with anything. I am assuming you are talking at playing at high levels.

 

[F Paulsson]

I play at $5/$10. There are some players I could pull off a check/raise flop, bet/fold turn against, but they're few and far between. People still at my level are generally way too loose and will call down with anything, but that's something that usually works out nicely for me.

 

[StnCld]

AA = 3/42
KK,QQ,JJ,TT = 6/42
AK = 12/42
AQs = 3/42
check raising 3.71 EV
Betting out .21 EV
1.) Can any one show the math above to get the equities of the different strategies?

I'm not quite sure how to get the exact EVs but the reasoning would go as follows:

Based on the tight calling range of your opponent you assume that he might get away from the KK QQ JJ TT AQs if you bet it right. odds he has one of these hands vs one he'll play to the end are 6+6+6+6+3:12+3=27:15=9:5. Stongest way to represent is the check raise and that also gets more money in the pot. If he folds the turn you win blinds + 5 bets from opponent = 6.5 bets. If he calls the turn, you give up, losing 7 bets. 6.5*9 = 58.5. 7*5 = 35. 58.5 - 35= 23.5 bets for 14 hands.. about 1.7 bets per hand on average.