-
Celebrate 20 Years of CardsChat with us! Over $3000 in freerolls, bonuses, and merchandise giveaways; click here to get in on the action!
F Paulsson
euro love
Silver Level
Depends on which specific overcards I have, if there are any backdoor draws, add in some percentage of the time that my hand is still the best, my position, number of players in the pot...
But if I have overcards that I think have a decent chance to win if I hit one of them, I'm usually looking for immediate pot odds of 8:1 or better, and I want to be the one closing the action (so I don't risk getting raised).
Some examples:
poker stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (6 players) FPaulsson is BB with K♦ Q♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, FPaulsson checks.
Flop: 3♦ 8♦ 7♠ (4SB, 4 players)
SB bets, FPaulsson folds.
Raising preflop will only bloat the pot and although I have a decently strong hand, I'm out of position and I don't really have a fighting chance to make anyone fold when they've only called for one bet already. Had the cards been suited, I would almost always raise. This flop was not what I wanted to see, and even though I have two decent overs and a backdoor K-flushdraw, 4:1 isn't good enough. Especially not given that this pot may be raised behind me if I call.
Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (6 players) FPaulsson is SB with K♠ A♠
UTG raises, 3 folds, FPaulsson 3-bets, BB folds, UTG caps, FPaulsson calls.
Flop: 4♦ 2♦ 6♣ (9SB, 2 players)
FPaulsson checks, UTG bets, FPaulsson calls.
UTG's range is severely narrowed when he caps preflop. Some players will only do this with big pairs, which I had to take into account. Still, this is a big pot and we're heads-up. Given that he has position on me he can cap with weaker hands than otherwise. AK/AQ aren't impossible holdings here and that means that with the pot the size it is now, I've basically already committed to calling down unimproved.
But if I have overcards that I think have a decent chance to win if I hit one of them, I'm usually looking for immediate pot odds of 8:1 or better, and I want to be the one closing the action (so I don't risk getting raised).
Some examples:
poker stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (6 players) FPaulsson is BB with K♦ Q♣
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, FPaulsson checks.
Flop: 3♦ 8♦ 7♠ (4SB, 4 players)
SB bets, FPaulsson folds.
Raising preflop will only bloat the pot and although I have a decently strong hand, I'm out of position and I don't really have a fighting chance to make anyone fold when they've only called for one bet already. Had the cards been suited, I would almost always raise. This flop was not what I wanted to see, and even though I have two decent overs and a backdoor K-flushdraw, 4:1 isn't good enough. Especially not given that this pot may be raised behind me if I call.
Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (6 players) FPaulsson is SB with K♠ A♠
UTG raises, 3 folds, FPaulsson 3-bets, BB folds, UTG caps, FPaulsson calls.
Flop: 4♦ 2♦ 6♣ (9SB, 2 players)
FPaulsson checks, UTG bets, FPaulsson calls.
UTG's range is severely narrowed when he caps preflop. Some players will only do this with big pairs, which I had to take into account. Still, this is a big pot and we're heads-up. Given that he has position on me he can cap with weaker hands than otherwise. AK/AQ aren't impossible holdings here and that means that with the pot the size it is now, I've basically already committed to calling down unimproved.
spore
Rock Star
Silver Level
Good advice there FP. I have a question though... with your example of KQ, you're getting about 4:1 on a call on the flop, and prior to this you had advocated not raising preflop. However, in this instance.. had you raised preflop most likely you would have gotten the rest to just call the raise, this would in effect have given you about your target odds to call on your 6-outer (two overs).
So, my (followup) question would be: Is it a good idea to raise preflop in hopes of giving yourself better pot odds on the flop with a hand that is likely to miss the flop.. ie. AK, KQ?
Let's look at this.
It's ~40% to hit a pair on the flop, after that you've got about ~25% to hit by the river, about ~13% to hit on each street. So 13% you need about 7.7:1 to call.
Say there are 4 players to the flop, let's assume that BB/SB are in plus you and somebody in middle position. For simplicity we're playing $1/$2. You've got $4 in the pot if everyone just calls. A bet on the flop would $1 into a $4 pot, so you're getting between 5:1 and 7:1 on your call (depending on the amount of folds). However, if you had raised preflop, most people at low-limits will call 2-bets just as easily as they would unraised. So in the same situation we'll assume again we have 4 players to the flop who've all called a 2-bet. so now we have $8 in the pot. A bet on the flop would give you anywhere from 9:1 to 11:1 on the call.
This, of course, is assuming that no one re-raises at any point. But the scenarios I've outlined above are definitely not a long shot at any low-limit games I've played.
So how about it? Is it a good idea to go in with a "I'm probably going to miss the flop" attitude, and play pre-flop to give yourself better odds on the flop? By the numbers it looks like a good ploy with hands like AK/KQ that can easily miss the flop but still be the best hand if they pair up on 4/5 street.
So, my (followup) question would be: Is it a good idea to raise preflop in hopes of giving yourself better pot odds on the flop with a hand that is likely to miss the flop.. ie. AK, KQ?
Let's look at this.
It's ~40% to hit a pair on the flop, after that you've got about ~25% to hit by the river, about ~13% to hit on each street. So 13% you need about 7.7:1 to call.
Say there are 4 players to the flop, let's assume that BB/SB are in plus you and somebody in middle position. For simplicity we're playing $1/$2. You've got $4 in the pot if everyone just calls. A bet on the flop would $1 into a $4 pot, so you're getting between 5:1 and 7:1 on your call (depending on the amount of folds). However, if you had raised preflop, most people at low-limits will call 2-bets just as easily as they would unraised. So in the same situation we'll assume again we have 4 players to the flop who've all called a 2-bet. so now we have $8 in the pot. A bet on the flop would give you anywhere from 9:1 to 11:1 on the call.
This, of course, is assuming that no one re-raises at any point. But the scenarios I've outlined above are definitely not a long shot at any low-limit games I've played.
So how about it? Is it a good idea to go in with a "I'm probably going to miss the flop" attitude, and play pre-flop to give yourself better odds on the flop? By the numbers it looks like a good ploy with hands like AK/KQ that can easily miss the flop but still be the best hand if they pair up on 4/5 street.
F Paulsson
euro love
Silver Level
Good morning, Spore!
Nope, it's not a good idea. I wrote a blog post on it awhile back:
https://www.cardschat.com/blog/02/10/bloating-equity-and-pot-odds/
Have a look at that, let me know what you think.
edit: Additionally, I mention something of a tangent to this in another blog article: https://www.cardschat.com/blog/08/04/learning-poker-steps-1-through-4/
Nope, it's not a good idea. I wrote a blog post on it awhile back:
https://www.cardschat.com/blog/02/10/bloating-equity-and-pot-odds/
Have a look at that, let me know what you think.
edit: Additionally, I mention something of a tangent to this in another blog article: https://www.cardschat.com/blog/08/04/learning-poker-steps-1-through-4/
Last edited:
spore
Rock Star
Silver Level
FP, great info! It was totally a half-baked theory I had while reading this thread last night, and I had a feeling there was a glaring hole in it somewhere. Now I know where 
So, I'll just keep playing like I normally do, lol. Thanks for setting me straight!
So, I'll just keep playing like I normally do, lol. Thanks for setting me straight!