Not so bad bad beats

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Dashir

Enthusiast
Joined
Feb 16, 2007
Total posts
61
I was playing in tournament about a week ago where I flopped the nut flush and ended up all in. Then I watched my opponent with three Js hit a full house when two eights hit the board. Ouch. Of course I was upset at the other guy for betting what was obviously the losing hand.

Partly to cool off I brought up a odds calculator and it showed that at the flop his odds of hitting were 35%. My odds were less then 2-1 ... that was harder to accept than the eights. But he had 7 outs at the turn and 10 outs at the river. So his all in push wasn't bad considering the size of the pot at the time (someone had tossed in a pot sized bluff at the flop) and that a flush without the Ace might actually fold.

Looking at this hand made me think that alot of those beats that look really bad aren't so bad afterall when you consider all the cards that might hit. And many of those "stupid" plays may have more thought behind them then what I see at the time. This has helped me accept my beats more calmly.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

Legend
Joined
Jan 14, 2006
Total posts
4,193
combo draws + pair are underestimated!
 
J

joeeagles

Guest
Joined
Mar 24, 2007
Total posts
1,114
You made the right decision going all-in with the nut flush. The probability of making a FH or better when you flop a set is 33%, when you flop 2 pair it's even less. So, when the money went in you were 66.6% favored to win the hand.

I still think you can call it a bad beat, even if maybe not a terrible one (I've seen worse).
 
A

alan1983

Visionary
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Total posts
641
You mean he flopped a set? man noones gonna lay down a set there.
 
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