The % are not that massive in poker!!!

Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

Legend
Joined
May 28, 2006
Total posts
1,804
Hi all.

Just been reading a few posts about bad beats.

I, like the rest of us, suffer from the pain and frustration of on the bubble and the button, delt AA, guy UTG, chip leader $12000 raises 5 times bb (1000), folded to u. U push all in (4000), he calls with AK :eek: dominated!!!

Flop 10,J,Q :eek: now u need a K (which NEVER comes???)

But, lets try to put things into perspective here. Poker is about making the right decision based on the information you have. It is not an exact science.

At best, pre flop, u r about 90% to win, meaning, u r 10% to lose!!!

U have to accept u do not have a God given right to win with any hand until the final card has been delt.

The best way to deal with it is to analize the situation, put yourself in the other guys shoes and most of the time you will think "I can see why he did that" Makes me feel a little better anyway!!!
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Too true, ron!

People tend to think that just because they have aces, they should be invincible that hand. Obv this is not so.

Some things for people who seem to be getting 'too many bad beats' or claim a hand is '%100000 BS'...

1) Play with no more than %5 of your bankroll. Any hit you take while playing with more than that will hurt more, believe me.

2) STOP posting in the bad beat section. Try to ignore the beats; posting each and every one (including those you've witnessed but not even been part of :eek:) will only make you remember and stress over them more.

3) Take in what ron just said. Stop - now. Don't just read it, TAKE IT IN and understand it.
 
J

joeeagles

Guest
Joined
Mar 24, 2007
Total posts
1,114
Agree Ronaldadio, this is the one thing I always look at when I lose a hand as a favored. If opponents move is justified by his situation and the hand he has, then just move on. If I shove with KK and he calls with AK and spikes an A you really can't get too sick about it, at least he had a legit hand. Or raising with AA and someone shoves into you with QQ and catches a Q on the flop. Again, legit hand. It sucks to lose but you have to accept it.

There are different types of bad beats. The ones that tilt me are bad calls made on the flop or turn and they catch their 2 or 3 outers, like you have AQ, flop comes A93, you bet, they shove back with JJ and catch their J on the river. Those are the ones I have trouble with, but all-in PF with a legit hand, like I have AK and get called by AQ and they win as a 2.3 to 1 dog, I can deal with.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
There are different types of bad beats. The ones that tilt me are bad calls made on the flop or turn and they catch their 2 or 3 outers, like you have AQ, flop comes A93, you bet, they shove back with JJ and catch their J on the river. Those are the ones I have trouble with, but all-in PF with a legit hand, like I have AK and get called by AQ and they win as a 2.3 to 1 dog, I can deal with.

You got a guy to push JJ on an ace high flop! How can you be mad?

In all fairness, these beats (among every other type) used to get me so bad that I couldn't play for the rest of the day or more after a single beat. With time you start to experience them so much that they literally don't even make you flinch anymore.

What I do have a problem with now, is tilting after I make a bad play. Nothing really tilts me to the point of it having any effect on my anymore except my own bad play.
 
gord962

gord962

Legend
Joined
Feb 10, 2006
Total posts
1,648
You got a guy to push JJ on an ace high flop! How can you be mad?

In all fairness, these beats (among every other type) used to get me so bad that I couldn't play for the rest of the day or more after a single beat. With time you start to experience them so much that they literally don't even make you flinch anymore.

What I do have a problem with now, is tilting after I make a bad play. Nothing really tilts me to the point of it having any effect on my anymore except my own bad play.

I completely agree with you Chuck! I used to tilt so bad after I got beat by a two outer or runner runner for a str8 or flush. Now I look at it as part of the game and play my next hand. As Chuck said, nothing pisses me off more than my own stupid plays.
 
J

joeeagles

Guest
Joined
Mar 24, 2007
Total posts
1,114
You got a guy to push JJ on an ace high flop! How can you be mad?


Lol, I get mad when he catches, not when he calls!!!!

Seriously, I understand your point that it shouldn't bother me, you're right in saying so but I haven't reached that yet, beats like that get to me because I hate it when people make the wrong decision and still get rewarded. I do however agree that I shouldn't let it affect me to where I tilt, which actually doubles the damage.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

Cardschat Elite
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Total posts
4,596
Right. The winning poker players are the ones who can exploit the small edges. Please don't take this post to mean that because the % is not that great it means that you can play trash.
 
mixmaster_matt

mixmaster_matt

Guest
Joined
Mar 19, 2007
Total posts
157
I whole-heartedly agree. People complain about bad beats, but I will never complain when I lose AA to KK, QQ, JJ, or any hand for that matter. Like everyone says, as long as they have 1% then they have a chance. I always want people to put in money against my better hands and if the percentages don't work in my favor, then too bad. Most of the time they will. And since most of the bad beats that people talk about are online, and they are seeing a million hands an hour, they have to expect it is going to happen. Just shake it off and move on.
 
J

Just1morefish

Guest
Joined
Aug 15, 2006
Total posts
5
I think one thing to remember is does the other guy think your pushing with just a bluff? It's part of the game to push sometimes with nothing and when you thnk you see someone doing that you push push back or all in, just to find out that your dominated", at witch point you say "thank God for the river card".
 
AZE

AZE

DC Coach
Joined
Jul 7, 2007
Total posts
136
With you guys the glass is always half full, ain't it? ;)

I agree, and if I could get myself to think like this - I probably wouldn't be waking up to a new gray hair every morning.... I'M ONLY 21 DAMNIT!!!... eh, I gotta calm myself down... woo-saa..
 
D

Dashir

Enthusiast
Joined
Feb 16, 2007
Total posts
61
it happens, but you've played right when you play all in pre flop...
I don't think so. All in pre-flop takes away all your options to get out of the hand. When you see three spades hit the table, you can dump your aces, or at least try to keep the pot down. Why commit so early?

Last night I went all in after flopping two pair (9s and Ts). My opponent showed AQs. Then I watched him hit runner runner flush. He could have also hit runner runner trips or runner runner higher two pair.

The thing is, if I'm not all in, I can respond to the cards that hit. When I see the flush, I can decide not to bet, or flat call instead of raising. Given his pre-flop raise, I could look at two aces or 2 queens and decide not to lose it all. But once you push, that's it.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Dashir's right. Wait for your opponent's lesser hands to outdraw you, then fold your initial favourite of a hand...:eek:

Really, why are you people playing poker if you're not ready to get your aces in preflop? Or your top two pair or whatever?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
Good thread. If everyone would just really understand the statement in the topic title, they'd be better off.

I was thinking about this the other day. I was playing a board game (real life, non-rigged!) where you roll a standard die to move your piece. Very often there was one specific number I did not want to roll because I'd land on a bad space. And you know what? Very frequently, more than I could imagine, I'd roll that exact number! I was about an 84% favorite to roll any other number, so each time it happened it was basically the equivalent of getting AcAd cracked by 2c2d all-in preflop. And believe me, it happened quite often (I was not the only one who noticed my awful luck in the game). In most standard, silly board games, people tend to appreciate the large amount of luck involved. But because we realize poker is very much a skill game, we can sometimes make the mistake of undervaluing the luck factor. The odds have no appreciation for "justice" or what is currently "the best hand", they're just odds.

Over the short-term luck matters, and in poker, the short-term can be quite long
 
gord962

gord962

Legend
Joined
Feb 10, 2006
Total posts
1,648
Really, why are you people playing poker if you're not ready to get your aces in preflop? Or your top two pair or whatever?
Exactly. If you are not getting you money in when you are ahead you are not winning as much as you could. By not betting (or betting small amounts) with the best hand you are giving your opponent correct odds to see the next card. If your opponent has the odds to call that means he is +EV. There is no way that both of you can have +EV, so if your opponent has +EV, that means you have -EV. You make money in poker my making +EV plays, so make sure you are getting your money in when you have the best hand. Sure you will lose the odd hand when your opponent calls against the odds and sucks out, but in the long run you will make money off players who constantly call against the odds. Don't let a bad beat make you change the way you play winning hands, it will cost you money in the long run.
 
Last edited:
D

Dashir

Enthusiast
Joined
Feb 16, 2007
Total posts
61
Dashir's right. Wait for your opponent's lesser hands to outdraw you, then fold your initial favourite of a hand...:eek:

Really, why are you people playing poker if you're not ready to get your aces in preflop? Or your top two pair or whatever?

How about because you actually want to finsih the tournament? I got busted out of a number of tournaments in the first five minutes because I couldn't resist the all in lure. But once I learned restraint, I learned to cash in. You're much better off just raising and making an evalutation post flop. Seeing the flop before committing is how you can avoid some "bad luck."

How many pros have you seen push all in pre-flop with Aces or Kings when the blinds weren't making them do it? Damn few.
 
gord962

gord962

Legend
Joined
Feb 10, 2006
Total posts
1,648
How about because you actually want to finsih the tournament? I got busted out of a number of tournaments in the first five minutes because I couldn't resist the all in lure. But once I learned restraint, I learned to cash in. You're much better off just raising and making an evalutation post flop. Seeing the flop before committing is how you can avoid some "bad luck."

How many pros have you seen push all in pre-flop with Aces or Kings when the blinds weren't making them do it? Damn few.

So if I push all in early in a tournament you would fold you pocket Aces????
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
So if I push all in early in a tournament you would fold you pocket Aces????

So if it folds to you in the small blind and Dashir is in the big blind, just push all-in with any two cards
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
How about because you actually want to finsih the tournament? I got busted out of a number of tournaments in the first five minutes because I couldn't resist the all in lure. But once I learned restraint, I learned to cash in. You're much better off just raising and making an evalutation post flop. Seeing the flop before committing is how you can avoid some "bad luck."

And how do you expect to "finish" the tournament without accumulating chips? (I'm assuming by "finish", you mean win)

If you're not getting aces in preflop, (save for some very specific, unique situations) then you're either somebody who doesn't know a thing about odds, a moron, or are playing with scared money or something.

I suggest you read our articles section, specifically that on expected value, and learn why it's a good idea to get your money in preflop with aces.

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-strategy.php

How many pros have you seen push all in pre-flop with Aces or Kings when the blinds weren't making them do it? Damn few.

Believe me, if you asked a pro if they could get their 10K stack all in preflop at the 25/50 level, he/she would say yes %100 of the time. At any level for that matter.

The only reason you don't see it is because people at the $1000+ buyin level aren't as hyper-aggressive as those at the $10 level, and aren't as ready to get their stack in with TT or whatever.

$1000 level: Player 1 with aces raises, player 2 with jacks reraises, player 1 repops to a significant amount, player 2 folds because he knows he's beat.

$10 level: Player 1 with aces raises, player 2 with jacks raises, player 1 pushes, player 2 calls.

I don't even know why I'm going through this...If you don't see the difference between the play at the stakes that pros usually play and the ~$50 and under that everyone here plays, well then I'm through trying to explain all of this.
 
D

Dashir

Enthusiast
Joined
Feb 16, 2007
Total posts
61
My goal with pocket Aces is not to get all in. That doesn't mean I would fold them if you pushed. Or if we've been at the same table for awhile I watch you push, push, push, I'll take my chance with good cards.

You're going to make as much, if not more, putting in your raises then betting post flop. To start with, you won't get many callers on the initial all in unless the table has seen you as hyper-agressive or you're very short stacked. While raising can actually build a pot. And you can avoid being eliminated when the flop is obviously against you. What is wrong with that exactly? You afraid of being pushed off the winning hand?

You arent giving yourself the chance to play poker. To react to more information. Those first two cards are only a small part of your hand.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
My goal with pocket Aces is not to get all in. That doesn't mean I would fold them if you pushed. Or if we've been at the same table for awhile I watch you push, push, push, I'll take my chance with good cards.

You're going to make as much, if not more, putting in your raises then betting post flop. To start with, you won't get many callers on the initial all in unless the table has seen you as hyper-agressive or you're very short stacked. While raising can actually build a pot. And you can avoid being eliminated when the flop is obviously against you. What is wrong with that exactly? You afraid of being pushed off the winning hand?

You arent giving yourself the chance to play poker. To react to more information. Those first two cards are only a small part of your hand.

OK I'm not reading any further.

Good luck to ya.
 
J

jeffred1111

Visionary
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Total posts
792
AA's lose equity the more people there is in the pot so we really don't want more than a few callers (or even heads-up). Ever heard the old saying that Aces win small pots or lose big ones ? Well it is true: if we get many people in, they have a higher chance of outdrawing us, thus we lose EV. Thus, we don't care about building a pot: if people call our all-in pre-flop, the pot is already built and there's no "hidden" chips that can be added to it.

Pros to pushing all-in if we are 100% to get at least one caller:
a) Opponent puts as many chips in as he could if we bet on all streets.
b) Opponent cannot outplay us.
c) We isolate opponent by pricing out drawing hands.
d) We don't have to outplay opponent and thus risking getting pressured and making a mistake.

Cons:
a) You cannot see the flop before comitting (and this is why you shouldn't treat your JJ or even QQ as AA.)

Clearly, there are a LOT mroe pros than cons about pushing. This is NOT to say that you should open push a 100bb stack at the smallest level when you have Aces. But belieive me, if there's a raise and a reraise, I'd be a damn fool not to go all-in and just call in order to "play poker".
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
My goal with pocket Aces is not to get all in. That doesn't mean I would fold them if you pushed. Or if we've been at the same table for awhile I watch you push, push, push, I'll take my chance with good cards.

You're going to make as much, if not more, putting in your raises then betting post flop. To start with, you won't get many callers on the initial all in unless the table has seen you as hyper-agressive or you're very short stacked. While raising can actually build a pot. And you can avoid being eliminated when the flop is obviously against you. What is wrong with that exactly? You afraid of being pushed off the winning hand?

You arent giving yourself the chance to play poker. To react to more information. Those first two cards are only a small part of your hand.

OK I'm not reading any further.

Good luck to ya.

heh, I've got to apologize here, Dashir. There's a misunderstanding here. Shoulda read your entire post, I was just a little frustrated at the time :/

I didn't mean open pushing preflop. I meant simply getting your stack in preflop if possible. I'm not open pushing with AA unless I'm either shortstacked, in a rebuy, or I've open pushed with trash in recent hands (which I would rarely do).

Still, you made points about getting away from aces when we had the chance to get our chips in PF. Why would we want to slow down and see a flop if we can stack someone PF???
 
Top