need help in understanding this post

A

ayasak

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Quote " In these spots, I simply try to judge the player's likely hands. Also, you have to give a weighted average to these things, as some players are more incined to slowplay AA for example. Thus, while their reraise might be AA, it is actually more likely to be 77 or some smaller pair, even though they are equally likely to be dealt each of these individual pairs preflop.

After estimating their weighted range of hands, I compare my equity against that range, and compare that equity to the pot odds. If I'm getting an overlay, I will almost certainly call. Sometimes, because of the tourney situation I'm in, I'll need more than a small overlay to call. I will almost never fold if I judge my overlay to be 15% or more.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan) "

i found this archived post on the other forum and i've got difficulty to truely understand what Greg Raymer was trying to say.

any kind soul explain to me, how do you actually do it (highlighted in red)? would appreciate your explanation comes with an example.

I apologize for asking such dumb question but i absolutely lack knowledge in this area of the game. :eek:
 
dufferdevon

dufferdevon

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I'll take a stab at it and I'm sure the kind folks here will correct me if I'm wrong. I think he is saying that he tries to figure out his opponents likely starting hands, from that he will figure out the percentage of his hands odds vs opponents hands odds. For example if opponent has KQos and Raymer has JTs then the odds are 2 to 1 for opponent.
Now he looks at the pot odds and if he is getting at least 15% more than 2 to 1 on his money then he would call. For example having to call $200 into an $600 pot.
If I am way off, please be kind.
 
A

ayasak

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thanks for the replay duff!

any place i could get stats on equity against a range of cards or so?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Do you understand what he means by "weighting?" That's a fairly important part about what he's saying, but something that's very difficult to do - especially on the fly.
 
A

ayasak

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Do you understand what he means by "weighting?" That's a fairly important part about what he's saying, but something that's very difficult to do - especially on the fly.


to be very honest, i was looking for people to explain how do you go about doing what Greg Raymer was saying. Eg. " After estimating their weighted range of hands " <--- i have no idea how he does this, mind explaining about this?

" I compare my equity against that range, and compare that equity to the pot odds. " <---i think i understood this from post by dufferdevon, but i'm not sure if i have fully understood what Greg Raymer was trying to bring across. The example was given in the previous post are such that we know the villian's hand. What if the villians's hand is unknown? How do you actually do this?

F Paulsson, mind explaining more about this too? It would be great if i could get your advice on this.

I've been reading more of the other forum recently and noticed that some of the things which i didnt give much thought of OR those which i thought i've already got a decent understanding about are actually being think about at a much much deeper level by the pros.
 
pigpen02

pigpen02

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Weighting is giving an estimate to the percent possibility of different hands. For example, to quote from Harrington, if you have AA, and the flop is rainbow 952 and your opponent bets to put you all in. He could have a high pair, which you estimate at 50%, 99 or 55, which you estimate at 40%, or a bluff, which you put at 10%. The percents are the weightings of the ranges. High pair you are ahead 92%, trips you draw out 10%, bluff you win 97% of the time. These are your hand odds. Multiplying them out, you get (rounded):

50% x 92% = 46%
40% x 10% = 4%
10% x 97% = 10%

So, adding, you are 60% to win the hand on average (if your estimates are right). If the pot odds are better than 2-to-3 you should go ahead and go all in. Pot odds for an all in can't be worse than 1-to-1, so in this example you should do it.
 
A

ayasak

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thanks pigpen! appreciate the time and effort to reply.

How do you go about estimating the percentages of the weighting of the ranges? Is there some tables or ways or anything of sort that helps you figure out the percentages? Do you consider 2pair too?

IMO, i think most people will call the all in here. do you guys actually go thru this kind of thought process in this situation as well?

What i would be thinking about when i'm playing 10NL (suppose this is a HU pot in ring game):

1) how much have i raised PF? did i announce my hand by putting a big raise PF? was it a family pot and my raise probably look like a squeeze or sort? I seldom limp with AA in EP and MP, lets assume i raised here.

2) postion & actions of the villian, eg. from what position did he call? did he limp-call? raise-call? i'll be more afraid of the limp-call here as players at 10NL does call big raises with garbage.

3) history of villain (if any) : has he been a solid player? how has played in the last few orbit?

having said all this, i'll call almost all the time here.

please comment on my thought process or style of play. I take negative comments too.

Thank you!
 
Last edited:
pigpen02

pigpen02

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Estimates of what hands your opponent may have are gleaned from experience with that player and how the hand has played out to that point. As pointed out, this is difficult to do on the fly. Hand analysis will let you get the input on specific hands from many people. The more of these you study the easier it will become. The way to get really good at this is to practice for many years and play thousands upon thousands of hands. Then you can make this "easy" money playing poker.
 
A

ayasak

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hmm...thanks! guess i've got to play more poker and hopefully get better in the process.
 
T

theWizard-50

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it's certainly important to learn the theory as has been explained earlier in the post, but when you're on the table in the situation you don't have time to pull out your pen and paper and calculate it. With experience it'll become second nature and you'll be able to do it on the fly in your head.
 
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